Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

[chaser1]

Definitely agree with you guys on at least a minimal reference from NHC. Granted, greater term persistence has hardly been met but at the same time one cant ignore the broad convective flare up. Even without the obvious rotation one has to acknowledge the potential for excessive rains and possible flooding over Central America. Now, if that rotation proves to be stubborn and continue to remain off the coast or even drift northward like you're thinking Aric....., well I'd say things will truly get a bit more interesting over at NHC by later this eve/tomorrow a.m.

[chaser1]

The micro-mechanics details of evolving tropical cyclones are SO cool to watch

[jaguars_22]

Something just looks fishy down there in the carribean. The overall cluster looked to have moved more poleward unless its just my imagination. How much shear is currently over that area??

[NDG]

Saved radar loop from San Andres, definitely a nice mid level circulation off of the coast of Nicaragua tracking NNE.

[Aric Dunn]

That well defined vort north of the radar embedded in the deep convection is what would be needed to work down to the surface. If that feature continues to develop this deep convection it would not take long to work to the surface. And that would be it would have less land interaction.

[jaguars_22]

Looks like 2 areas of circulation... One near coast and other moving north. If we see deep convection pop again near the area moving north it may be on its way... depends on shear

[gatorcane]

Floater loop.

Seems this deserves some kind of 0/10% mention by the NHC at least but it does seem it will be inland over Nicaragua/Honduras soon:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Dean4Storms]

Definite MLC there just lacking deep convection near the center of it.

[NDG]

X is where I marked the MLC seen on radar off of the coast of Nicaragua tracking NNE.

[ROCK]

Floater loop.

Seems this deserves some kind of 0/10% mention by the NHC at least but it does seem it will be inland over Nicaragua/Honduras soon:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I am surprised also. I have seen them put 0% and 0% on a puff of clouds before. This has some cold tops right now..

[jaguars_22]

looks like GFS tries to close it off north of nicaragua... interesting

[floridasun78]

look like nhc want see more models coming into agreement their need see more support puls maybe their see not in 5 day window that some models showing area down their

[Aric Dunn]

Step one.. develop a broad surface circulation... Check ...

Appears we have a surface circ or two somewhere under all that cloud debris.

[jaguars_22]

GFS and CMC Still have this as a weak tropical storm which would be perfect for us along Texas coast for much needed rain!!!

[Wx_Warrior]

12z GFS, fwiw

[AutoPenalti]

By all accounts, I’m actually quite impressed with the GFS so early this season. I’m not sure what the developers changed during the Off season, but it has been quite spot on for the most part about development.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Good news from GFS model update just now:
1. The model hurricane in the Gulf has been ditched.
2. Instead, huge tropical moisture surge from Caribbean and Gulf to impact Texas next weekend.
3. Welcome rainfall.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the circulation is becoming better defined on radar and sat.. and now we have north winds along the Nicaraguan and Honduras coast with west winds on the Costa Rican and Panama coast.

whatever is at the surface is not located with the mid level circ. but farther to the S and East

[gatorcane]

The GFS might have taken the Alberto round but looks like the ECMWF is going to take this round as the GFS and other models have really trended toward the ECMWF the past 24 hours. Even in the case of Alberto the ECMWF did pick up on genesis well in advance just not as early as the GFS. Still a lot can change with this system but for now doesn’t appear to be any “coupe” for the GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

And actually here it is.. at least a vort that matches with the wind reports.

do full zoom lool.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html