Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

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Ntxw
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#161 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:30 am

Nederlander wrote:
NDG wrote:I don't see any signs of a surface circulation this morning, there's a trough just to the east of Nica that is wide open.

Euro is coming out to be the winner on this event :D


Not sure how you can say that with so much certainty.. GFS wasn’t showing development until GOM and the EURO had nothing...


Euro within its medium range started showing disturbed surge of moisture up from the SW Carib into the W gulf with low to nil development. GFS sniffed out the potential in its long range and likely took it too far. The moral of the story here is both models are now in general agreement.

The best take from this lesson is understand the model biases. It's not always model wars, but to understand how/when to use them for the best forecast. It's good to use the Euro/Ukmet as a confirmation for the GFS, especially in the medium range. The GFS can be a good starting stone but can overdo it in some cases. Had the northern gulf taken the GFS and some ICON runs seriously we'd have a madhouse right now, instead it may be not much happening there but further west in terms of disturbance.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#162 Postby USTropics » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:55 am

The GFS did its job imo. It sniffed out an area in the long-range that queued us to watch the Caribbean for possible development. In that sense, it performed well, as the ECMWF/UKMET consistently had an over-extension of the ridge (you can see this in 500mb verification charts), and the position of the CAG was thus displaced further west then actually occurred. We can clearly see there is some incipient mid-upper level vorticity in the Caribbean currently causing instability, and the GFS long-range accurately forecasted that. Where the GFS failed is that it was too far east, and in the 500mb verification it has underdone the ridge; the GFS/ICON thus had a more eastern track that allowed for the system to traverse over marginal-conducive conditions, and that clearly will not happen. I think the difference is there is a camp that follows only the master runs of the models, and track/intensity are given some sort of merit over what the models intended purposes are in the long-range, which is to give us clues about possible development.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#163 Postby stormreader » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:19 am

USTropics wrote:The GFS did its job imo. It sniffed out an area in the long-range that queued us to watch the Caribbean for possible development. In that sense, it performed well, as the ECMWF/UKMET consistently had an over-extension of the ridge (you can see this in 500mb verification charts), and the position of the CAG was thus displaced further west then actually occurred. We can clearly see there is some incipient mid-upper level vorticity in the Caribbean currently causing instability, and the GFS long-range accurately forecasted that. Where the GFS failed is that it was too far east, and in the 500mb verification it has underdone the ridge; the GFS/ICON thus had a more eastern track that allowed for the system to traverse over marginal-conducive conditions, and that clearly will not happen. I think the difference is there is a camp that follows only the master runs of the models, and track/intensity are given some sort of merit over what the models intended purposes are in the long-range, which is to give us clues about possible development.

Agree....Just how many days-weeks ago did the GFS first begin to give early warnings of the possibility of tropical development out of the EPAC-W Carib gyre? And how recently was it that the Euro was still showing absolutely nothing in this area? And as you say, at that very early warning given by the GFS, it reflected conditions allowing for a track further east than will actually taken by the system...and that had a lot to do with the forecast for hurricane in the GOM. Just look at the morning sat pics in the W Carib. You see a very persistent area of storms (currently being sheared) that is just waiting for a more hospitable environment to develop (most likely in the BOC). So long ago, GFS said "look down to W Carib people, remember how I gave you the heads up on Alberto?? in May?? I may not have all the details, but I can give you a very early heads up about a potential W Carib-GOM system."
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#164 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:21 am

Numerous popups S and SW of the main convection.
Likely will reduce shear over the next 24 hrs.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#165 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:22 am

GFS was too far east in the long term which meant much less land interaction. Obviously, this made for a stronger storm and it probably suffered from some feedback issues. If this system is able to trend back towards the NW Gulf it could give it a little more time to develop into a tropical depression/weak storm.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#166 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:23 am

USTropics wrote:The GFS did its job imo. It sniffed out an area in the long-range that queued us to watch the Caribbean for possible development. In that sense, it performed well, as the ECMWF/UKMET consistently had an over-extension of the ridge (you can see this in 500mb verification charts), and the position of the CAG was thus displaced further west then actually occurred. We can clearly see there is some incipient mid-upper level vorticity in the Caribbean currently causing instability, and the GFS long-range accurately forecasted that. Where the GFS failed is that it was too far east, and in the 500mb verification it has underdone the ridge; the GFS/ICON thus had a more eastern track that allowed for the system to traverse over marginal-conducive conditions, and that clearly will not happen. I think the difference is there is a camp that follows only the master runs of the models, and track/intensity are given some sort of merit over what the models intended purposes are in the long-range, which is to give us clues about possible development.


I agree that if there is something correct that the GFS forecasted in its med to long range was this area of disturbed wx while the Euro had it further west when it started getting within its range. But even when the Euro started trending to the east it was still reluctant to develop it when the GFS started trending to the left it was still being aggressive with it.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#167 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:27 am

I wouldn't be surprised if the moisture streamed more into Louisiana than Texas. How much rain on average are the models showing for me in the central texas coast?
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#168 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:30 am

In short, the GFS under develops ridges while the Euro over develops them. We saw this just recently with Alberto, the GFS was into the FL Peninsula while the Euro was into the NW Gulf Coast west of Mobile, AL. This has been the case for YEARS with these two models, it's nothing new.

I remember in 2010 the year of the strong East Coast trough the GFS was making the troughs even stronger than what they were said to be allowing for the storms to recurve further east than they really did.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#169 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:30 am

Visible frames from the early morning showed some decent radial gravity waves on the cirrus tops.
Firing strong.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#170 Postby Ian2401 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:43 am

Image
Shear is continuing to decrease directly over the disturbance. Anyone smarter than I am want to weigh in on what, if any, kind of impact this could have on any future development?
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#171 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:51 am

Shear zone might imply continued convection favorable for the potential for development just east of Yucatan. This says nothing however regarding how building surface and mid level heights might impact near to mid term motion. If the disturbance is soon to get shoved WNW.... then the disturbance will get shoved WNW. Maybe (but doubtful) it could make another run at attempting to spin up a brief meso in the far west to N.W. Caribbean but that would be short lived if net motion carried it over land.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#172 Postby stormreader » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:57 am

chaser1 wrote:Shear zone might imply continued convection favorable for the potential for development just east of Yucatan. This says nothing however regarding how building surface and mid level heights might impact near to mid term motion. If the disturbance is soon to get shoved WNW.... then the disturbance will get shoved WNW. Maybe (but doubtful) it could make another run at attempting to spin up a brief meso in the far west to N.W. Caribbean but that would be short lived if net motion carried it over land.


As I recall, that area just off the Yucatan in the W Carib is just about where the GFS had the actual cyclogenesis beginning.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#173 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:57 am

Given the shear ahead of it, i'd have to think that by tonight/tomorrow the disturbance is gonna begin to look a good deal more sheared with convection stretched out north to south.... before perhaps attempting to organize under what might be improved upper air conditions in a few days from now. My guess is that maybe we'll see a small but fairly impressive land-hugger try to take shape quite close to the Mexico/Texas border at some point here. By that time though, land interaction will be a factor (unless steering becomes more southerly and it were to drift or move slowly north to NNW along the mid Texas coastline)
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#174 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:08 am

stormreader wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Shear zone might imply continued convection favorable for the potential for development just east of Yucatan. This says nothing however regarding how building surface and mid level heights might impact near to mid term motion. If the disturbance is soon to get shoved WNW.... then the disturbance will get shoved WNW. Maybe (but doubtful) it could make another run at attempting to spin up a brief meso in the far west to N.W. Caribbean but that would be short lived if net motion carried it over land.


As I recall, that area just off the Yucatan in the W Carib is just about where the GFS had the actual cyclogenesis beginning.


It did. Thereafter it advertised a fairly consistent run after run solution that resulted in a T.S./hurricane to approach a number of points along the N.E. to North Gulf coast. It was too fast in its genesis, and to occur at a point where the deep layer steering flow would have carried a system in a pole-ward motion. Things change though and steering changes constantly with time. Well, the Euro better picked up on the fact that conditions would not be conducive for development up to this point and thus never did develop a system to evolve into a scenario as the GFS did. Fast forward to the present and cyclogenesis may well be a bit more favorable at "this time". Unfortunately, the steering at "this time" appears to become more east to west given the tropical ridge building over the far west Atlantic. Anyone can simply say that a fair to good chance of a storm forming will occur 2-4 weeks from now. Anyone wold be foolish to assume that the steering will remain unchanged during that entire time though (regardless if a mean long wave pattern might be in place - patterns vacillate)
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#175 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:20 am

One thing for sure about tropical development; timing matters, BIG TIME. The difference of a couple days could imply the difference between a strong storm pulling an Elena under a COL or changing steering, to a delay in development and increased shear near-by and/or a net motion that mitigates a system from being able to develop vertically due to divergent surface, 850mb, and 500mb flow conditions. I'd guess here that the latter represents what will more or less occur in the short term. Low level flow will want to carry a generally open wave toward the WNW. At the mid levels we'll begin to see increasing easterly trades as a result of building ridging from the east. That might cause whatever ripple of mid level vorticity to begin to get stretched out to the north over the E. Gulf and Florida while the lower level trough slowly migrates westward. I suppose the mid level energy might remain co-located but also track WNW given the influence of the building ridge. Either way though, we're talking land interaction and increased shear with any near term westward motion.
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#176 Postby Clearcloudz » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:23 am

Image

Image

Invest 91L in the works and should become a invest sometime today or early tomorrow.

Keep watching as sheer is decreasing and also noticing convection firing in that area.

Image
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#177 Postby Clearcloudz » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:34 am

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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#178 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:36 am

I believe it is Invest 91 now...
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#179 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:41 am

91L is up on the Navy/NRL TC page
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Re: Watching Western Caribbean

#180 Postby stormreader » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:46 am

jaguars_22 wrote:I believe it is Invest 91 now...


And it should correlate with the NHC upping short and long term percentages for development. The persistence of convection, the possibility of a weakening of shear shortly before landfall in the Yucatan area, model forecasts for pressures with the system to approximate tropical storm strength in the GOM, all argue for some percentage increase (I think) from the NHC.
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