Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:25 am

Well,despite the events of the overnight model runs,I will leave the thread open as there is still an incipient area of convection in SW Caribbean to see what occurs with that.I could expand the title of thread to include other areas if needed.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#42 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:26 am

:uarrow: Yep, just when the GFS backs off the Euro Ensembles become more interested. Though most keep it a TD it still is a significant uptick in those that develop something.

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#43 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:27 am

StruThiO wrote:why the second week specifically?

Because that’s when things start picking up. July is usually dead.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#44 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:52 am

Lots of convection really blew up overnight in the Southwest Caribbean Sea.

Something will get going down there eventually imo. Monsoonal gyres are always difficult in forecasting TC genesis and often slow to develop. This situation is not anything different in that regard.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#45 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:04 am

Well folks guess what,06z GFS is back but only close to the Texas coast east of Corpus Christi.

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#46 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:59 am

Pretty big storms firing off from shear.
Doesn't seem to be washing out.
Notable is the UL Divergence from them.

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#47 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:11 am

With the 00z EPS much more aggressive and the increase in convection over the SW Caribbean this morning, I still think this area has to be monitored if it reaches the BoC. BoC systems can spin up fast because of the topography of the Bay. Looking at the multi model ensemble consensus there is some modest support from other models besides the GEFS:
Image
The GFS/GEFS model is also forecasting low shear in the BoC. Something to watch. Models can struggle with systems in the BoC because of their small size and the way the Bay spins up storms fast. Thinking something like Barry (2013) cannot be ruled out.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#48 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:26 am

:uarrow:

If you extend out the 00Z TC Genesis Probs to 240 hours, you will see much higher percentages in the Western Gulf likely due to the increase in the ECMWF Individual ensemble members now represented in that general Area.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#49 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:48 am

Euro ensembles peak at a 19% chance of development in the Gulf this weekend. 00z GFS ensembles had a 68% chance of at least a TD in the Gulf. There should be a good bit of shear out there. This is most likely going to be a heavy rainfall event for Texas and possibly Louisiana next weekend. Moisture surge into the NW Gulf may not be too unlike 2001's TS Allison. Allison developed an LLC just prior to landfall around June 5th. Initial track inland dropped up to 12 inches of rain in the Houston area. Unfortunately, Allison stalled in NE TX then made another very slow pass south through Houston, dropping a total of over 30" of rain. I'm not forecasting this to be another Allison, I'm just saying that some areas could have 6-10 inches of rain next weekend into early the next week.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#50 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:53 am

There appears to be just a little bit of convection down there lol
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#51 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:05 am

Vorticity & convection has certainly increased this morning. I'm surprised the NHC did not highlighted this area this morning, they could had at least giving it a 0% of developing. :lol:

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#52 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:10 am

Beyond the discussion of the SW Caribbean disturbance itself......, the GFS has whiffed suddenly on the 0Z and 6Z runs. Understandably given how an apparent wave is truly becoming convective as we speak, however if this were the feature that the GFS was grasping onto and developing to move into the E. Gulf, then at least with respect to differing model nuances one would have to look back for a number of days and score "this one", to the EURO. Gotta call it how I see it. As for the overall dynamics in play it does appear that the low to mid level ridge which the EURO was forecasting days ago to build west with time, is in fact appearing to verify. For the moment it appears that any efforts for cyclonic spin up in the W. Caribbean will likely be driven WNW and over Central America. Whether something downstream might bubble up in the BOC might or might not be a result of upper level conditions at that time
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#53 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:20 am

Well at the very least we have a very solid low to mid level circ along the coast of Nicaragua drifting to the north. in line with the GFS/CMC solutions from the last few days.

looking at surface observations there appears to be at least broad rotation, the lack of surface observations makes it difficult.

pretty sure this warrants a mention from the NHC lol

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#54 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:35 am

I just dont think that the present low level steering will allow this area of disturbed convection to gain the needed latitude for continued development. If it did however, i'd think that with time it would further build anticyclonic flow over itself in part by virtue of the upper level trough in the Gulf potentially cutting off and moving southwest. I'm guessing this was the approx. evolution that earlier runs of the GFS was showing to play out. Perhaps it was little more then those minor variations of the increase of low to mid level building heights which the EURO had been advertising for days, that will in fact result in the present W.
Caribbean disturbance to move essentially WNW verses the more NNW which earlier GFS runs were consistently calling for. If one thinks about it in a broader scale, the two solutions were never way off from each other. It only appeared that way because land interaction which the EURO dragged the area of increased vorticity over, naturally inhibited any organized development run after run. Meanwhile, prior GFS runs simply did not pick up the westward building heights and assumed that a LLC would have the time to develop in the W. Caribbean and steering be in place to move pole-ward and remain over water. Ahhhh, the nuances of atmospheric science....
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#55 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:38 am

chaser1 wrote:I just dont think that the present low level steering will allow this area of disturbed convection to gain the needed latitude for continued development. If it did however, i'd think that with time it would further build anticyclonic flow over itself in part by virtue of the upper level trough in the Gulf potentially cutting off and moving southwest. I'm guessing this was the approx. evolution that earlier runs of the GFS was showing to play out. Perhaps it was little more then those minor variations of the increase of low to mid level building heights which the EURO had been advertising for days, that will in fact result in the present W.
Caribbean disturbance to move essentially WNW verses the more NNW which earlier GFS runs were consistently calling for. If one thinks about it in a broader scale, the two solutions were never way off from each other. It only appeared that way because land interaction which the EURO dragged the area of increased vorticity over, naturally inhibited any organized development run after run. Meanwhile, prior GFS runs simply did not pick up the westward building heights and assumed that a LLC would have the time to develop in the W. Caribbean and steering be in place to move pole-ward and remain over water. Ahhhh, the nuances of atmospheric science....


dont forget that we currently have highly divergent shear and the vorticity in the low and mid levels will be pushed off to the nne so very likely if a surface feature does become well defined would be pulled along with it. similar to those earlier gfs runs.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#56 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:40 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Well at the very least we have a very solid low to mid level circ along the coast of Nicaragua drifting to the north. in line with the GFS/CMC solutions from the last few days.

looking at surface observations there appears to be at least broad rotation, the lack of surface observations makes it difficult.

pretty sure this warrants a mention from the NHC lol

https://image.ibb.co/mVXc3T/radar.gif


Agreed, unless of course the NHC is that confident that this meso feature will simply move more or less to the west. That's my take at this point anyways. Aric, I see what you're referring to as far as apparent northward propagation of the radar echo's but I'm guessing thats actually all that it is. The higher tops being blown off to the North and NNE given the upper level flow, while meanwhile I'm thinking that any 850mb to surface circulation might just "head ho" to the west.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#57 Postby ROCK » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:42 am

Should get a mention by NHC with that radar . Mid level rotation for sure
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#58 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:49 am

I don't think chances are high at all that this develops while over the NW Caribbean. I think the best chance of development is if it manages to reach the BoC, which seems likely based on most models. Models often struggle with BoC development. I do think NHC should mention with a near 0 48 hour chance and a low 5 day chance. There have been several occasions this time of year where we had BoC development.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#59 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:49 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:I just dont think that the present low level steering will allow this area of disturbed convection to gain the needed latitude for continued development. If it did however, i'd think that with time it would further build anticyclonic flow over itself in part by virtue of the upper level trough in the Gulf potentially cutting off and moving southwest. I'm guessing this was the approx. evolution that earlier runs of the GFS was showing to play out. Perhaps it was little more then those minor variations of the increase of low to mid level building heights which the EURO had been advertising for days, that will in fact result in the present W.
Caribbean disturbance to move essentially WNW verses the more NNW which earlier GFS runs were consistently calling for. If one thinks about it in a broader scale, the two solutions were never way off from each other. It only appeared that way because land interaction which the EURO dragged the area of increased vorticity over, naturally inhibited any organized development run after run. Meanwhile, prior GFS runs simply did not pick up the westward building heights and assumed that a LLC would have the time to develop in the W. Caribbean and steering be in place to move pole-ward and remain over water. Ahhhh, the nuances of atmospheric science....


dont forget that we currently have highly divergent shear and the vorticity in the low and mid levels will be pushed off to the nne so very likely if a surface feature does become well defined would be pulled along with it. similar to those earlier gfs runs.


I would agree under most circumstances, especially in those circumstances where the surface trades are marginal. Any LLC would nearly always attempt to develop under the trailing quadrant of any forming MLC that often would drift or move more pole-ward. I'm just surmising that the stronger low to mid level ridging that the EURO had been pushing is beginning to subtly evolve. Guess we'll know soon enough though. Whatever weak circulation that is down there now, sure doesn't have much real estate to its left.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#60 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:52 am

wxman57 wrote:Euro ensembles peak at a 19% chance of development in the Gulf this weekend. 00z GFS ensembles had a 68% chance of at least a TD in the Gulf. There should be a good bit of shear out there. This is most likely going to be a heavy rainfall event for Texas and possibly Louisiana next weekend. Moisture surge into the NW Gulf may not be too unlike 2001's TS Allison. Allison developed an LLC just prior to landfall around June 5th. Initial track inland dropped up to 12 inches of rain in the Houston area. Unfortunately, Allison stalled in NE TX then made another very slow pass south through Houston, dropping a total of over 30" of rain. I'm not forecasting this to be another Allison, I'm just saying that some areas could have 6-10 inches of rain next weekend into early the next week.


Well this is concerning.
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