Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

[Cpv17]

That’s a real pretty NON invest for early morning. I have seen ULLs and a puff of clouds get more love...

Well it’s approaching dmax, but yeah it’s looking pretty nice

[Clearcloudz]

Convention is firing up once again this morning...

[GCANE]

Definitely something firing off over the same location.
Cloud tops look like a lot of small vorticies or cells with strong helicity.

[GCANE]

Looks like we got something.
Strong vort in the 500 to 700 mb layer.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Ian2401]

Large pocket of decreasing shear right over where this disturbance is located.

[GCANE]

Looks like winds are a minimum at about 500mb.
At 10 knots out of the SW.

[wxman57]

Euro ensembles down to a 6% chance of Gulf development. Still looks like a surge of moisture moving into Texas this weekend. No development.

[GCANE]

MSLP is running about 1012 mb at the closest buoy.

[Clearcloudz]

I would be interested to see where the NHC puts the yellow X on 8AM update.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure.
This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward to
northwestward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during
the next couple of days, and little development is expected during
that time due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Environmental
conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development
when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the week. Regardless of development, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Clearcloudz]

NHC cone needs to be adjusted.

[Nimbus]

Looks like there might be a surface feature on the southern side of that persistent convection.
If so, should be able to see low level clouds moving east when the visible loops catch up.
Maybe get an invest announced at 11 AM ?

[Clearcloudz]

Here we go... might get a invest soon. 91L

[Clearcloudz]

[NDG]

I don't see any signs of a surface circulation this morning, there's a trough just to the east of Nica that is wide open.

Euro is coming out to be the winner on this event

[drezee]

Forex,
You are looking at the mid to high level clouds. The near surface clouds are from the E and SSE at best. Trough only

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
[#tweetForEveryone] A tropical disturbance will make its way into the western Gulf of Mexico late this week and weekend. Development is not particularly likely, but wet and stormy weather will likely impact the NW gulf coast as deep tropical moisture flows northward.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1006509619986956290

[Clearcloudz]

Forex,
You are looking at the mid to high level clouds. The near surface clouds are from the E and SSE at best. Trough only

I'm watching it carefully. Nothing right now... but the fight is happening

[Nederlander]

I don't see any signs of a surface circulation this morning, there's a trough just to the east of Nica that is wide open.

Euro is coming out to be the winner on this event

Not sure how you can say that with so much certainty.. GFS wasn’t showing development until GOM and the EURO had nothing...

[NDG]

I don't see any signs of a surface circulation this morning, there's a trough just to the east of Nica that is wide open.

Euro is coming out to be the winner on this event

Not sure how you can say that with so much certainty.. GFS wasn’t showing development until GOM and the EURO had nothing...

The GFS was too aggressive with this system since day one, just a week ago the GFS was forecasting it to be developing off of the Coast of Honduras/Nica by tomorrow, as time was getting closer it started pushing development further, two runs in a row it shows very little if any development before the whole disturbed area reaches the TX coast this weekend.