Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

[wxman22]

Euro remains dead as a doornail I would say. Also it seems to get buried in northern Mexico this time out through day 5, so while no rainfall map available on TT site, looks like less rain for Texas on this run:

The 12z Euro still shows heavy rain across the mid and upper Texas coast, and later extending inland to areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. Regardless of development Heavy rain may still be an issue.

[jaguars_22]

How much rain is it showing?

[Dean4Storms]

Euro remains dead as a doornail I would say. Also it seems to get buried in northern Mexico this time out through day 5, so while no rainfall map available on TT site, looks like less rain for Texas on this run:

The 12z Euro still shows heavy rain across the mid and upper Texas coast, regardless of development Heavy rain may still be an issue.

Yea, if you're North or East of whatever Low attempts to develop there will be plenty of moisture drawn up that way.

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECM out to next Wed. 00z showing pretty much 2 inch plus rain over eastern half of TX and around 7-10 inches from Brownsville to Houston area and inland 20 miles or so.

[Aric Dunn]

I am curious to see if an invest it started that far east.. the models will most likely all jump on development as there would be plenty of open water to get going before running into the Yucatan.

[GCANE]

I like how the mid-level is filling in with Water Vapor.
Seems to be taking a chunk out of the shear.
Pretty much saturating the air column from the boundary layer to the top of the tropopause.

[Haris]

euro

[SFLcane]

Soooo 8 hrs ago per the NHC the tropics were clear sailing with no development now were at 20% ? What has changed? So cause there is convection in the SW carib now we highlight the area? Not sure what has changed the european remains unimpressed and the overall globals are less aggressive. Fairly inconsistent if you asked me not sure the whole picture behind all this.

There was convection bubbling down there yesterday...

[Nimbus]

Soooo 8 hrs ago per the NHC the tropics were clear sailing with no development now were at 20% ? What has changed? So cause there is convection in the SW carib now we highlight the area? Not sure what has changed the european remains unimpressed and the overall globals are less aggressive. Fairly inconsistent if you asked me not sure the whole picture behind all this.

There was convection bubbling down there yesterday...

There is some rotation in the mid to upper level clouds near 13.9N -83W not sure if that is a reflection of a surface feature or not. Speculation that there is already a surface low might make this invest worthy but WXman57 hasn't weighed in yet.

[psyclone]

Soooo 8 hrs ago per the NHC the tropics were clear sailing with no development now were at 20% ? What has changed? So cause there is convection in the SW carib now we highlight the area? Not sure what has changed the european remains unimpressed and the overall globals are less aggressive. Fairly inconsistent if you asked me not sure the whole picture behind all this.

There was convection bubbling down there yesterday...

In fairness they haven't changed much. They went from no development to a 90% chance of no development in 48 hours and an 80% chance of no development in 5 days. In their view there's a 4 out of 5 chance at no development.

[Alyono]

Soooo 8 hrs ago per the NHC the tropics were clear sailing with no development now were at 20% ? What has changed? So cause there is convection in the SW carib now we highlight the area? Not sure what has changed the european remains unimpressed and the overall globals are less aggressive. Fairly inconsistent if you asked me not sure the whole picture behind all this.

There was convection bubbling down there yesterday...

In fairness they haven't changed much. They went from no development to a 90% chance of no development in 48 hours and an 80% chance of no development in 5 days. In their view there's a 4 out of 5 chance at no development.

NHC MAY have been at 0/10% prior to this one. They usually do not include disturbances that have a 10% chance of development within 5 days

[LarryWx]

Soooo 8 hrs ago per the NHC the tropics were clear sailing with no development now were at 20% ? What has changed? So cause there is convection in the SW carib now we highlight the area? Not sure what has changed the european remains unimpressed and the overall globals are less aggressive. Fairly inconsistent if you asked me not sure the whole picture behind all this.

There was convection bubbling down there yesterday...

Had this been the first one Stacey Stewart had done in awhile, I would have gone with him being the main reason they finally went with the sensible decision of going with something over 0% because I think he has a tendency to be a bit more bullish. However whereas he had not done any recently before today, he did do the prior one, which was at 0%. So, I don't know how much of finally giving in to a nonzero % was due to him and how much was due to current conditions/satellite pics.

[NDG]

Development or no development at least the Euro is showing some good beneficial rains for TX & Oklahoma.

[cycloneye]

Folks in Houston dont want to have something near a Harvey type repeat of floodings.

[GCANE]

Looks like a few short-duration towers firing off with some notable helicity.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=9128&y=7682&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=9&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Roth who just received a well deserved promotion at the WPC has just Updated the Extended Range Surface Charts and QPF Totals for later this week into the weekend. The first thing you'll notice is a broad area of low pressure has been added to the tropical wave axis/trough that exits the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning and nears Corpus Christi Sunday morning and that QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Totals are beginning to increase. That suggest that confidence is increasing that heavy rainfall is possible extending into early next work week at the minimum along the Texas Coast and inland extending into SW Louisiana. The highest QPF totals extend from Matagorda Bay on up the Coast into Metro Houston toward Beaumont/Lake Charles.

[stormlover2013]

I have a feeling it will keep increasing

[Siker]

Anyone have member counts for the 12z EPS?

[Alyono]

EC has a 15% chance of development in the 12Z run

[cycloneye]

@DrRickKnabb
Models aren’t reliable at 5-day forecasts of when/where a tropical cyclone will form. They’re better at forecasting overall pattern - in this case an environment where surface trough over Caribbean has chance to lead to a depression or storm over SW Gulf.