Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

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USTropics
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#21 Postby USTropics » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:03 pm

My rule of thumb: models and climatology are great tools, but examining current science and atmospheric conditions, coupled with experience, always wins. It doesn't matter if the GFS or ECMWF "wins" (model disagreement is completely and holistically a net negative for forecasting and meteorology). It's frustrating to see people hug one particular model (and only the master runs at that) without even understanding the models biases. Use the models to glean general trends and principals for genesis. If you're using the GFS/ECMWF exclusively for determining strength and track before genesis even begins, you're doing it wrong.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#22 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:08 pm

Not sure why we're 100% throwing out the GFS here. This is a highly climatologically favored area and scenario for TC genesis in June.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#23 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:18 pm

already a pretty prominent mid level rotation. and before sunset broad low level turning at the buckle in the monsoon trough.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#24 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:50 pm

for what its worth.. the nam also has been developing various incarnations of it. a lot of land interaction of course as well.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#25 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:59 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Not sure why we're 100% throwing out the GFS here. This is a highly climatologically favored area and scenario for TC genesis in June.


Yes, indeed, the 26 W Caribbean/GOM TC geneses since 1851 for 6/11-20 is the most of any 1/3 of a month period from May through August. Have to watch the next few runs of the various models as this is still way up in the air.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:03 pm

00z GFS looks like it might be the first run in 2 weeks plus without any development. it is over land almost the entire time thus far.. see what happens in the BOC>
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#27 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:11 pm

Cmc Mexico bound
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#28 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:16 pm

actually so far all 00z models thus far have switched gears. the monsoon trough is farther west over land.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#29 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:26 pm

i think the GFS and CMC have been trolling. :wink: The 0Z GFS now has only a weak low in the far W GOM that goes inland near the TX/MX border. The 0Z CMC also looks like it is giving up the ghost this run other than something broad/weak in the Bay of Campeche. Let's see what their ensembles say and then what they say at 6Z/12Z. Later runs could easily bring it back stronger, whether they'd be trolling again or not. Meanwhile the Euro & Ukmet, which has nothing at 0Z, are looking better at least as of this run. Now what if the 0Z Euro were to finally have a TC at 0Z? I'm not expecting that but wouldn't that be hilarious?:lol:
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#30 Postby djones65 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:26 pm

OMG just imagine that the NHC has been correct all along! I challenge anyone to document when the NHC has "put their foot in their mouths" in the past 5 years....
They are the best and employed at the greatest forecasting department in the country for a reason in my opinion.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#31 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:30 pm

djones65 wrote:OMG just imagine that the NHC has been correct all along! I challenge anyone to document when the NHC has "put their foot in their mouths" in the past 5 years....
They are the best and employed at the greatest forecasting department in the country for a reason in my opinion.


Caution advised. It is still too early to make the call on this despite the NHC looking better as of this particular GFS/CMC run. It could all look different at 6Z/12Z. Regardless, I would have gone 10-20% chance for 5 days in deference to climo and the at least small chance the GFS/CMC could be right as opposed to leaving it at 0%. The 0% doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#32 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:19 am

Wow, first run in what seems close to a month that the GFS hasn’t developed a TC in either the western Carib. Sea or GOM. Who greased it?
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#33 Postby psyclone » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:20 am

djones65 wrote:OMG just imagine that the NHC has been correct all along! I challenge anyone to document when the NHC has "put their foot in their mouths" in the past 5 years....
They are the best and employed at the greatest forecasting department in the country for a reason in my opinion.


I've been a skeptic since the NHC has persistently had development at zero. not even a mention must mean they feel reasonably confident
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#34 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:32 am

the overall convective mass is larger than bud in the pacific. the ingredients in place.. just comes down to land interactions.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#35 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:45 am

I still wouldn't be surprised to see development. GFS was off its rocker for intensity but I really wouldn't be surprised to see a BoC spinup.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#36 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:51 am

NHC still saying nada
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#37 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:22 am

Development chances aren’t quite zero but are pretty close to it I’d say with the GFS caving to the Euro only showing a weak low heading into NE Mexico.

The GFS might have been lucky and sniffed some potential out but as usual it went over the edge crazy with it.

As some have said, second week of August seems like our next best bet for Beryl.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#38 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:33 am

why the second week specifically?
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#39 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:47 am

StruThiO wrote:why the second week specifically?


Just basing it off climatology I would imagine.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#40 Postby jconsor » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:13 am

The Euro ens have trended more aggressive with a significant increase in members showing a TD or weak TS forming. By my count, the number of EPS members showing at least a TS is up to 7 vs. only 2 on yesterday's run. Also the EPS members are showing the potential for development a little earlier/farther south than yesterday. Finally the op ECMWF 250 mb pattern does favor some development, with the upper low in the north-central Gulf backing SW to the Bay of Campeche while a ridge builds over the western and central Gulf this weekend.

Link: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/
Last edited by jconsor on Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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