Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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stormreader
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Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

#1 Postby stormreader » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:21 am

Nice blow up of storms began last evening in NW Carib just east of the Yucatan. This area left in the wake of Invest 91L which moved through a couple of days ago. Shear seems to have relaxed quite a bit in the NW Carib.
Last edited by stormreader on Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#2 Postby boca » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:24 am

I just noticed that as well and it looks like Texas will get a double dose of rain out of this.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#3 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:29 am

Just more rain for Texas, I don't see any sort of development out of this. Yes, shear is low, but no model support at all.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#4 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:36 am

Weather150 wrote:Just more rain for Texas, I don't see any sort of development out of this. Yes, shear is low, but no model support at all.


It's another fast-moving tropical wave that we've been tracking for days. No development potential, just more moisture heading for the NW Gulf.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#5 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:37 am

This vorticity will merge with the vorticity that composed 91L. You can see it come over the Yucatán at 850mb on the GFS; it’s the lobe on the northeast side of the mess that makes its way to Texas.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#6 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:13 am

The Canadian tries to close off the system tomorrow, and shows the system making landfall on the upper Texas coast maybe as a depression late Sunday night into Monday morning fwiw, not that I believe it... lol but I wouldn't be surprised if the system tried to spin up at the last minute but it would probably not have enough time to develop before moving inland, becoming essentially a "No Name" storm.

Image

Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#7 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:25 am

Ya something is weird about the models... GFS shows moderate rainfall. Euro shows alot, icon shows monsoon, Some show closed low some dont... But this thing over the yucatan is looking healthy

Is there a radar out of cozumel
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#8 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:37 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Ya something is weird about the models... GFS shows moderate rainfall. Euro shows alot, icon shows monsoon, Some show closed low some dont... But this thing over the yucatan is looking healthy

Is there a radar out of cozumel


ICON seems to think the conditions for former 91L get better after landfall. Perhaps we move into a better phase of the MJO (Phase 2) or maybe the atmosphere is just juiced in a few days for it to do what it's doing. I'm not necessarily buying it since it's the only model that maintains the low pressure over South Texas for as long as it does. I'm not discounting it completely either, but it seems anomalous. It also could be confusing the evolution of the secondary (NW Caribbean) low or possibly expecting some of that energy to transfer to near wherever 91L goes inland. Definitely a weird run.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#9 Postby stormreader » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:38 am

Siker wrote:This vorticity will merge with the vorticity that composed 91L. You can see it come over the Yucatán at 850mb on the GFS; it’s the lobe on the northeast side of the mess that makes its way to Texas.


I never understood that it was actually two distinct features. That’s why I was surprised to see the secondary flare-up off the Yucatan. So rainfall totals from models actually include precip from this secondary wave. Saw on other thread that CMC hints at closing it off along the upper Texas coast. Also that Houston station posted graphic saying they are monitoring it for formation.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#10 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:48 am

Seeing another deep blowup right where the "center" could be in this system... Im not a meteorologist but i did stay at a holiday inn...
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#11 Postby stormreader » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:52 am

To the naked eye, it really looks like a lot of moisture associated with this “secondary system” just off the Yucatan. This has to be what models are mainly picking up on as far as rainfall totals. Wonder if projected totals are on the conservative side. Also, on visible, almost looks like beginnings of a mid level circulation just east of the Yucatan coast. At least that’s what it looks like to me.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#12 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:56 am

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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#13 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:58 am

stormreader wrote:To the naked eye, it really looks like a lot of moisture associated with this “secondary system” just off the Yucatan. This has to be what models are mainly picking up on as far as rainfall totals. Wonder if projected totals are on the conservative side. Also, on visible, almost looks like beginnings of a mid level circulation just east of the Yucatan coast. At least that’s what it looks like to me.


That's what we said about 91L, same exact location.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#14 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:09 pm

ASCAT shows some wind barbs of 30kts. Appears to be just a wave for now.
Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:24 pm

2PM TWO 10/10
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151718
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula is associated
with a surface trough. While significant development of this system
is not anticipated, heavy rain and strong gusty winds are occurring
across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and will overspread the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and reach portions of the Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday. For more details on this
system please see products issued by your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#16 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:24 pm

Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#17 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:32 pm

This has a bit more of my attention now.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#18 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:32 pm

I thought that high pressure to the east was pushing everything west? How could it hit Louisiana? That path has it going right into houston
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#19 Postby stormreader » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:38 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I thought that high pressure to the east was pushing everything west? How could it hit Louisiana? That path has it going right into houston


Well, there have been several model runs over the past few days which showed precipitation further north toward the upper Texas coast, and some even included heavy precip in extreme SW La (Lake Charles area). Others focused the precip toward south-central Texas. With system moving in over Corpus and heavy rains later over San Antonio. Will see how it plays out, but this "secondary system" seems to be oriented a little further north, so that the rain may be concentrated along the upper Texas coast and even put La in to play. Also, we could very well get a depression, and I wouldn't rule out a tropical storm from this. This has some model support from what I have read here (CMC).
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#20 Postby HurricaneA » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:38 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I thought that high pressure to the east was pushing everything west? How could it hit Louisiana? That path has it going right into houston

The center would move into Texas, but Louisiana would still get rain from it.
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