Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[NDG]

I see nothing more than southerly winds at the surface this morning across the western GOM, confirmed by surface observations. Any rotation is still in the mid to upper levels. I doubt this will become an Invest today.

[wxman57]

Yep, nothing there. No circulation developing, just rain moving ashore later today. Looks like we have enough time for a long (4.5hr) bike ride this morning.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah NDG that pretty much sums it up. This will likely be just a potential significant rainmaker for the NW Gulf Coast region.

[TheStormExpert]

Is shear from the outflow of Carlotta the reason this won't be able to develop further? Just curious.

[NDG]

Is shear from the outflow of Carlotta the reason this won't be able to develop further? Just curious.

Not so much the outflow of Carlotta, there has been a pesky upper level low over the GOM the past few days which is what actually helped flare up this area of disturbed wx initially in the Caribbean, but the surface trough has moved fast towards the ULL, currently under neath it which is not the best set up for tropical development.
But if it can hang around near the TX coast over the next couple of days or maybe if some piece of energy left over from Carlotta moves north, models forecast better upper level conditions by then. But if it moves inland forget about it.

[Clearcloudz]

Travis Herzog ABC 13

See full post in link below
https://www.facebook.com/ABC13TravisHerzog/


9AM SUNDAY TROPICAL UPDATE

Near record levels of moisture for mid-June are about to blow into Texas tonight and Monday. This loop shows a weather variable I track called “Total Precipitable Water.” It tells us meteorologists how many inches of rain would fall if the atmosphere converted all its moisture into water and dumped it evenly over every square inch. The higher that number, the more likely it is we get heavy rain. Right now the deepest pocket of moisture is still offshore but moving this way. This means you can still pull off some of your outdoor plans this Father’s Day (especially this morning). Storm coverage will increase as we head into the afternoon as the atmosphere warms up. Water conditions will also deteriorate along the coast with dangerous rip currents, waves up to 8’, and minor coastal flooding. The deeper moisture will arrive tonight and tomorrow, increasing the threat of rain rates exceeding 3” per hour.

While the tropical disturbance remains disorganized and only has a 20% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm, it is looking increasingly likely that some form of low pressure is going to get “trapped” near the central Texas coastline for a few days and actually strengthen even if over land. Name or no name, this will send copious amounts of rain into the coastal counties of Texas with rainfall projections from NOAA now exceeding 10” along the middle and lower Texas coastlines. I don’t have great confidence right now in the exact placement of those higher rain totals, and I wouldn’t rule out totals that high along the upper Texas coastline, either. Rainfall totals should drop off gradually (or even sharply) away from the coastal counties, especially for areas north of I-10.

My advice is to continue to monitor the weather closely before attempting to travel tonight thru Tuesday. The ground should have no problem absorbing the first few waves of rain that blow in given how dry it has been. I just hope the rain falls at a manageable rate until this weather system leaves us. I probably won’t post again until this evening. Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there.

[TheStormExpert]

Is shear from the outflow of Carlotta the reason this won't be able to develop further? Just curious.

Not so much the outflow of Carlotta, there has been a pesky upper level low over the GOM the past few days which is what actually helped flare up this area of disturbed wx initially in the Caribbean, but the surface trough has moved fast towards the ULL, currently under neath it which is not the best set up for tropical development.
But if it can hang around near the TX coast over the next couple of days or maybe if some piece of energy left over from Carlotta moves north, models forecast better upper level conditions by then. But if it moves inland forget about it.

What the Euro shows just doesn't make sense, strengthens the low over NE Mexico.

[drezee]

Yep, nothing there. No circulation developing, just rain moving ashore later today. Looks like we have enough time for a long (4.5hr) bike ride this morning.

I'd bet you a coke that a quick LLC closed off right around port Arthur in less than 12 hours. I will record the observations.

[drezee]

Yep, nothing there. No circulation developing, just rain moving ashore later today. Looks like we have enough time for a long (4.5hr) bike ride this morning.

I'd bet you a coke that a quick LLC closed off right around port Arthur in less than 12 hours. I will record the observations.

Have to find a wind SW at least 240 degrees to be fair

[wxman57]

Yep, nothing there. No circulation developing, just rain moving ashore later today. Looks like we have enough time for a long (4.5hr) bike ride this morning.

I'd bet you a coke that a quick LLC closed off right around port Arthur in less than 12 hours. I will record the observations.

You're on!

[wxman57]

Yep, nothing there. No circulation developing, just rain moving ashore later today. Looks like we have enough time for a long (4.5hr) bike ride this morning.

I'd bet you a coke that a quick LLC closed off right around port Arthur in less than 12 hours. I will record the observations.

Have to find a wind SW at least 240 degrees to be fair

Nope - that could be a thunderstorm outflow. Has to be analyzed on the surface map.

[NDG]

Is shear from the outflow of Carlotta the reason this won't be able to develop further? Just curious.

Not so much the outflow of Carlotta, there has been a pesky upper level low over the GOM the past few days which is what actually helped flare up this area of disturbed wx initially in the Caribbean, but the surface trough has moved fast towards the ULL, currently under neath it which is not the best set up for tropical development.
But if it can hang around near the TX coast over the next couple of days or maybe if some piece of energy left over from Carlotta moves north, models forecast better upper level conditions by then. But if it moves inland forget about it.

What the Euro shows just doesn't make sense, strengthens the low over NE Mexico.

Yeah, I was just looking at the HD Euro run from last night. It will probably be the first time a TS forms completely over land if the Euro was to be correct, which I doubt.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1008236997448732672

[Haris]

NAM trends N !

Could be a Central Texas rain maker

[Clearcloudz]

@crankywxguy

[Clearcloudz]

Waves of heavy rain possible for Texas. No real organization showing up on the NAM





@crankywxguy

[Clearcloudz]

Incredible convection firing in the Gulf of Mexico.

[drezee]

I'd bet you a coke that a quick LLC closed off right around port Arthur in less than 12 hours. I will record the observations.

Have to find a wind SW at least 240 degrees to be fair

Nope - that could be a thunderstorm outflow. Has to be analyzed on the surface map.

Agreed, at least 240 for two hourly obs. Outflow should dissipate over that time period. Plus we would be able to see it on visible. I wouldn't cheat.

[TexWx]

Incredible convection firing in the Gulf of Mexico.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Df5mkzOXUAEiOzC.jpg

Awesome

[Clearcloudz]

Houston getting a quick morning shower.