Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[Clearcloudz]

What the Euro shows doesn’t even look like the 20/20% area. Once again it’s probably the remnants of Carlotta.

NHC leans very heavily on the EURO. Is that why there is only 20 percent instead of a higher percentage since all of the other models are still showing something.

[MGC]

So now the Euro is showing a closed low and the GFS isn't? This is looking like the year of the phantom model storm. We shall see, but looks like a very wet couple of days for Texas.....MGC

[Clearcloudz]

Its very confusing on how the EURO strengthens the system a little over land.

[Cpv17]

That’s exactly what I said lol and that’s why I’m not believing it and also not believing that path it would take either. I’ve never seen a storm take that path, ever.

[stormreader]

Sometimes in Oct gulf systems can take a south course for a time, never seen it in June. Almost like it’s showing a small surface vort which is being shunted around a larger mid level circulation. Your guess is as good (or better) than mine.

[Cpv17]

Crazy CMC makes the most sense to me as of now

[stormlover2013]

I mean I have never bet against the euro but who knows what will happen

[Rgv20]

The Euro is showing a trough of low pressure that hangs behind and stalls it in the Western Gulf. 12zWPC has a low pressure area attach to the trough by Day 4.

[Ntxw]

Its very confusing on how the EURO strengthens the system a little over land.

It's not all that confusing in my opinion. Systems that are not all tropical can do that. One of the Euro biases is that it likes to hang troughs in a westward/stalled movement over the progressive GFS. You have a lot of troughiness in the north, ridge to the northeast and lower pressures coming from the BOC and Carlotta.

[Clearcloudz]

Crazy CMC makes the most sense to me as of now

NWS doesn't buy it

[Clearcloudz]

Its very confusing on how the EURO strengthens the system a little over land.

It's not all that confusing in my opinion. Systems that are not all tropical can do that. One of the Euro biases is that it likes to hang troughs in a westward/stalled movement over the progressive GFS. You have a lot of troughiness in the north, ridge to the northeast and lower pressures coming from the BOC and Carlotta.

Makes sense. Thanks

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles have come in more aggressive with Rainfall Totals and the chances for a potential tropical low pressure area for the Western GOM just offshore of NE Mexico/South Texas in the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame.

[Haris]

Don’t match euro ...

Trended wetter instead for Central and SE tX

[CyclonicFury]

12z EPS at about a ~50% chance of development
[i mg]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abrammer/graphics/ecmf_tc_data/plots/genesis/ecmf_gen_atl_2018061612.png[/img]

[stormreader]

The Euro is showing a trough of low pressure that hangs behind and stalls it in the Western Gulf. 12zWPC has a low pressure area attach to the trough by Day 4.

http://i64.tinypic.com/skyi4g.gif

Looks like the disturbance is being pretty much stretched out and absorbed into the diving trough in the western gulf. The upper level flow with the trough is north to south along the Texas coast. Guess any smaller scale surface feature that would develop close to the Texas coast would still be caught within the trough, and at least in the short term moved with the flow from north to south along the coast. At least that’s what the model shows now.

[tolakram]

REMINDER

Do not wrap IMG tags around links to model sites. If you want to post an image then upload it to an image site like imgur or tinypic first.

Thanks.

[Steve]

Its very confusing on how the EURO strengthens the system a little over land.

It's not all that confusing in my opinion. Systems that are not all tropical can do that. One of the Euro biases is that it likes to hang troughs in a westward/stalled movement over the progressive GFS. You have a lot of troughiness in the north, ridge to the northeast and lower pressures coming from the BOC and Carlotta.

Joe B has it sort of what Alyono said yesterday. The current system moves toward TX and leaves behind a weakness where the next wave coming up intersects leaving big weather potential (many inches to possibly a couple feet of rain) for Deep South Texas and the RGV and certainly the states of Tamaulipas and Nuevo León.

I don’t know if some of the moisture or energy from Carlotta comes up or not. But 91L I think was the leading edge of a deep tropical stream moving toward the Western and Southwestern Gulf. MIMIC shows it well. It is an interesting pattern to watch evolve.

[Rgv20]

A nice detailed discussion this afternoon from the NWS in Brownsville.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): In the grand scheme of
things, confidence is high that much of the Rio Grande Valley and
Deep S. Texas is going to get wet, and the current moderate to
severe drought that covers the Lower Valley and King Ranch will be
dented to some degree in for the drought monitor that will be
issued in ten days. The big question remains: How much rain, and
exactly where? The primary models we consider...US GFS and
ECMWF...are in similar camps with the big picture but differ
notably in the details during the key rain period. That key period
remains late Monday night through Wednesday and has been
consistent for a few days so confidence is high on this timing.

What is not so confident is how much rain we actually get. After
coordinating with WPC and liking the more run-to-run consistent
GFS the expectation is for the heaviest rainfall to be in the
coastal counties during the period, tailing off gradually for the
mid Valley through Brooks County with lesser rains across the Rio
Grande Plains and Upper Valley. For now, a lower bound of total
rainfall is in the 2 to 4 inch range east half and 1 to 2 inch
rain west half...all great news for the aforementioned drought
conditions. However...the upper bound? We don`t know just yet. If
deterministic ECMWF were to verify spot on, we`re talking much
more rainfall than described...but a shift of the upper system
farther south or north would change the totals dramatically
downward. Bottom line? We`ll be looking much more closely this
time tomorrow as the start of the "big" rains will be within the
48 hour time frame...and based on most likely and reasonable
worse-case scenarios we`ll hope to have a better idea of the
potential range of rainfall and impacts. Obviously, a situation
more akin to the ECMWF...whose dynamics combined with deep
tropical moisture are quite impressive...would become a more
serious concern for widespread flooding and height of water depth
in poor drainage locations.

After Wednesday the general trend is for lesser rain but still
enough moisture and forcing to keep some mention in the forecast.
Due to spending most time assessing the Monday-Wednesday time
frame made little change to the end of week forecast but will
address Thursday more closely this time tomorrow.

For the sensible weather, then: Monday will see more clouds and
showers, with some embedded thunder. Latest GFS brought the curl
of vorticity over the eastern part of the area and with a bit more
mid level southeast flow confidence is higher in some
rain...though prefer to see deeper moisture and less easterly flow
in the rain-production area than currently shown. For this reason,
have kept rain chances in the likely category but nothing higher.
QPF is up and local downpours could produce an inch or two.

Late Monday night through Midday Tuesday sees deepening southeast
flow and full saturation of the column with precipitable water
values up over 2.5 inches (GFS, similar or higher on the ECMWF)
and the correct position of the upper level features. In the past,
this setup brings the heaviest persistent rainfall between late
night and early afternoon, spreading from coast to inland but
fading a bit approaching the upper Valley and Rio Grande Plains.
Likely to be a late afternoon through midnight `lull` with
atmosphere worked over before things recycle again Tuesday night
into Wednesday with similar results. With the widespread rain and
cloud cover have lowered temperatures into the upper 80s which
could be a few degrees too generous at this point...and will
adjust accordingly in next few days. Note that the ECMWF, should
its solution be closer to reality, would include less of a lull if
at all.

With lowering rain chances (potentially...this is still
uncertain) Wednesday night and beyond have raised daytime
temperatures to close the week...with Thursday an uncertain lower
90s for most areas and back to the lower to mid 90s to close the
week. These lower temperatures will also be influenced by the
amount of water absorbed or still on the ground, as well.

Bottom line? Now is the time to prepare for potential flooding;
tips are on today`s daily briefing at
http://weather.gov/rgv/briefing or on our social media pages.

&&

[stormlover2013]

ICOn model sticks to its guns

[EasyTiger]

ICOn model sticks to its guns

Saw that. How reliable is the ICON for tropical systems?