Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[stormreader]

Up to 20%-20%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low over the western
Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage since this morning. Recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a surface
circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the
north of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to
support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today
and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Well there you go. One of our posters was able to take the odds when the house (NHC) was offering 9-1, only %10 chance of development.NHC percent now is 20%. So if you forecast development now you only get 4-1 (if I did my math correctly.

[stormlover2013]

I think they went the conservative route they could have went to 30

[CyclonicFury]

NHC will probably keep chances low unless reliable models come on board or this system shows signs of being close to a tropical cyclone.

[stormreader]

Lookin on latest visible on NHC site there seems to be a small but distinct vort spinning over the northern Yucatan peninsula. Perhaps others???? also in the mass of convection. Located on land just to the NW of where that “tail” of heaviest convection is located over the peninsula.

[cycloneye]

What 12z ECMWF has is energy from Carlotta going north to the border near Brownsville.

[Alyono]

EC now developing it, but like the ICON, its after landfall

[stormlover2013]

Might be first time ever I go against the euro

[SoupBone]

There's still 40-50kts of shear right long the coast of Texas all the way up to Louisiana. Shouldn't this at least keep it in check? It's definitely not the 50-70 I've seen over the last several weeks, but this isn't exactly conducive for development either. Is that coastal shear expected to lessen too?

[Haris]

is euro right? gfs is sooo different??? What will happen?

[wxman57]

Still just looks like rain for TX and LA starting tomorrow afternoon. Development still unlikely. Looks less impressive now than it did earlier this morning. Shear is increasing as it moves toward Texas.

[Haris]

Still just looks like rain for TX and LA starting tomorrow afternoon. Development still unlikely. Looks less impressive now than it did earlier this morning. Shear is increasing as it moves toward Texas.

What do you make of the euro?

[Cpv17]

Might be first time ever I go against the euro

Maybe it’s just me, but the Euro doesn’t make any sense.

[stormlover2013]

Same here I dunno lol..but we shall see

[PTrackerLA]

Euro would give extreme south Texas and northern Mexico a major flood. Quite a few ensembles from the overnight run took this back out into the Gulf. Could be an interesting situation unfolding after day 4.

[Cpv17]

Euro would give extreme south Texas and northern Mexico a major flood. Quite a few ensembles from the overnight run took this back out into the Gulf. Could be an interesting situation unfolding after day 4.

What I don’t understand is how does the Euro have the vorticity coming ashore around the mid TX coast and then shunts it off very quickly ssw and strengthens the vorticity drastically over land and then rides the Mexico coastline due south.

[jaguars_22]

What’s the euro showing for mid to coast rain wise

[TheStormExpert]

What the Euro shows doesn’t even look like the 20/20% area. Once again it’s probably the remnants of Carlotta.

[Ptarmigan]

I could see this tagged as an Invest.

[Cpv17]

What’s the euro showing for mid to coast rain wise

Probably not much, but I believe the Euro is the outlier right now as it’s the only model I know of that has the bulk of the rain in deep south Texas and northern Mexico. The other models have most of the rain along the middle and up TX coast.

[Haris]

NWS does not buy the euro...

on WPC their latest 0z precip forecast came out,


less rain for STX , more for CTX...

Buying GFS! Seems real! EURO is MAD