Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[Haris]

ICON sucks at tropics . Don’t get me started please. Remember it was showing a hurricane off Mexico 2 days ago , happen? No . Pathetic .

NAM went S closer to euro . Hmmm

[stormlover2013]

Look I love the euro, it’s my king, but every model can be wrong I don’t model hug I look at all, icon is like in year one right ?? So we don’t know if it sucks are not

[Clearcloudz]

ICOn model sticks to its guns

RGEM doing the same as the ICON

[Haris]

Look I love the euro, it’s my king, but every model can be wrong I don’t model hug I look at all, icon is like in year one right ?? So we don’t know if it sucks are not

Yeah but it made many false calls with Alberto and this . Trust me , I’ve looked at every run since day 1 ... Not good . My point is don’t take it too seriously and base forecasts off of it ...

[stormlover2013]

All models struggled with Alberto just like there struggling with this wave, I look at all model to see what they are showing all I know is if icon verifies that’s not good, also u could say same thing about the nam tons of pros says it sucks

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET similar to the ECMWF it has the disturbance strengthening over land

[stormlover2013]

I went through harvey, icon has 16-20 inches of rain I want know part of

[sphelps8681]

All I know at this point is we don't know what model will be right or wrong. We just have to wait and see at this point. Let's just watch the models and see what they say. They could all be wrong. LOL!!

[Steve]

I went through harvey, icon has 16-20 inches of rain I want know part of

For sure. Best of luck down there. Seems there is a general Texas consensus among the models, but it’s not clear if the bulk of the rain will be in SE, central coast or S TX. Also how long does it stick around. If this wave leaves behind a piece and there continues to be a SE/onshore flow around developing low pressure inland, you’d have to think maybe 50-100 miles north and northeast of the center of low pressure would get the training effects. Maybe 6-7 days to get out of the pattern?

[Clearcloudz]

LOL new pop up spin near the Gulf of Honduras....

Becoming more like a meth lab place for tropical disturbances to form.

[EasyTiger]

18Z GFS starting to align with the ICON..

[South Texas Storms]

18Z GFS starting to align with the ICON..

Not at all. GFS continues to show an open wave with heavy rain as far west as the Texas Hill Country. ICON is much farther east and stronger.

GFS solution looks quite reasonable and has been pretty consistent lately. NWS offices seem to be siding more towards the GFS right now and I agree.

[Cpv17]

ICOn model sticks to its guns

Actually the ICON model is all over the place. Yesterday it had the heaviest totals in N Mexico and S TX and now has the heaviest totals almost in Louisiana. It keeps trending north and east with each run.

[galvbay]

Bring on the RAIN! galvbay reporting in from the north shoreline of East Galveston Bay where we've had less than a inch of rain the last 10 weeks. We need a long, slow soaker for the next 3-4 days.

[EasyTiger]

18Z GFS starting to align with the ICON..

Not at all. GFS continues to show an open wave with heavy rain as far west as the Texas Hill Country. ICON is much farther east and stronger.

GFS solution looks quite reasonable and has been pretty consistent lately. NWS offices seem to be siding more towards the GFS right now and I agree.

Thanks for clarifying. I probably should have been more specific. I was looking at the accumulated precipitation, of which both models target southeast Texas.

[Haris]

GFS remains fixed . Euro doesn’t seem too likely

[davidiowx]

Bring on the RAIN! galvbay reporting in from the north shoreline of East Galveston Bay where we've had less than a inch of rain the last 10 weeks. We need a long, slow soaker for the next 3-4 days.

This breeze sure is nice right now too! We need rain like, bad.. but a long steady rain for a few days. Not 3/4” hour rain rates for hours and hours over 3 days

[BYG Jacob]

is euro right? gfs is sooo different??? What will happen?

Check back in two days. We don't know yet.

[lrak]

BOC buoy is showing a lower pressure than the last few hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

And surf is on the increase.

[stormlover2013]

Tonight with the models will be interesting