Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[Cpv17]

Plenty of rain for your area in Victoria, Jaguars. Euro shows 15-17” at least for now, but at this rate of shifting north, the heaviest totals could end up happening around Houston towards Beaumont like the models had it a few days ago.

[wxman22]

I wonder if there's a reason why the Tropical Outlook is late?...

[South Texas Storms]

I wonder if there's a reason why the Tropical Outlook is late?...

It's not late...just didn't update on the NHC website for some reason. Here is the 2pm EDT update: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201806171725-KNHC-ABNT20-TWOAT

[cycloneye]

I wonder if there's a reason why the Tropical Outlook is late?...

I posted it at 1:29 PM on the prior page. (Page 14)

[stormreader]

Is a good thing the surface trough axis is going to be moving inland soon, as if its vorticity is becoming better defined this afternoon just offshore.

That be a lot of moisture headed toward Texas.

[Haris]

Not a lot of time left . NWS needs to act
and issue flood watches for parts of the coastline

[SoupBone]

12Z EURO rainfall is a Wow, Wow, Wow

Here is a link where you can see the rainfall in the most recent run and all members as well.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018061712/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180624-0000z.html

Well either these models are severely overhyping rainfall amounts, or the pro-mets are being very conservative.

[lrak]

Buoy off the central coast of TX has a SW wind now. Is this a trend so to speak or an outflow boundary making the wind light and variable? It's at the surface and the pressures have been kinda staying low.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

[SoupBone]

The Euro shifts further north, the ICON model's scenario doesn't look as questionable anymore...

So what model was underestimating Harvey? It was showing 20 or so inches of I remember. I'm not suggesting that obviously, but it understimated total amounts by a good bit. I'm a bit concerned seeing these numbers over a 3 day period.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z EURO rainfall is a Wow, Wow, Wow

Here is a link where you can see the rainfall in the most recent run and all members as well.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018061712/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180624-0000z.html

Well either these models are severely overhyping rainfall amounts, or the pro-mets are being very conservative.

Specifically the EURO which wants to dump for days but I think its also to important to keep in mind that euro got a update 2 weeks ago and could be overdoing it like you said. Just have to keep watching because GFS is not showing anything like what the EURO is showing.

In addition the GFS has been consistent with its runs while the EURO continues to change.

[USTropics]

Harvey was a well organized system that spent days, still with a vigorous vorticity at it's core, pulling in moisture from the GOM. Harvey was trapped, and took special circumstances to create that scenario. The ECMWF has questionable cyclone genesis (interaction with terrain certainly seems suspect), and there's no other real model support. That certainly is enhancing rainfall totals on the ECMWF product. I would strongly suggest using a blend of other rainfall estimate products with the ECMWF (and of course using the WPC graphs: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml):

[jasons2k]

There are TS-force gusts out in the Gulf. I can also see a mid-level circulation on radar and satellite, roughly south of Cameron, LA and east of Corpus. Headed NW.

[lrak]

People are still trying to fix roofs in that area due to Harvey. Not good. Some had no insurance and no money some had insurance and are still in constant battle with insurance companies.

[Clearcloudz]

There are TS-force gusts out in the Gulf. I can also see a mid-level circulation on radar and satellite, roughly south of Cameron, LA and east of Corpus. Headed NW.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAM shifted a bit southwest and now stalls a weak low across south TX.

[stormreader]

There are TS-force gusts out in the Gulf. I can also see a mid-level circulation on radar and satellite, roughly south of Cameron, LA and east of Corpus. Headed NW.

I know that here in SW La, with just small cells of storms coming in occasionally, its gotten pretty gusty. Looking at the mass of this weather offshore, when it gets to Texas, pretty sure there will be tropical storm conditions up and down the coast. Lots of rain. Hard to say with these models how much of it will remain for how long---I think in general, looking at the charts, it looks like the models are counting on a south to north training perhaps just west of Houston.

[stormreader]

Also, think Steve, and one of the other posters (can't remember now) talked about a sort of tropical incubator being set up behind this system. If you look further south and east in the general Yucatan area, you can see how juiced the atmosphere remains. Steve said it was kind of a strange set up. It started with 91l (it led the way) but was generally harmless, but this disturbance is coming, and looking behind it, you may get further disturbance coming in general from the NW Carib in succeeding days. Everything moving WNW in general direction of Texas coast for the next few days.

[stormlover2013]

To be honest icon has been the most consistent model the last 2 days

[stormreader]

Ok. Jason mentioned what looked like a developing mid level circulation south of La. I’m not much at posting images. But if someone would post a good visible pic of the system. There does look to be some significant and tightening turning developing well south of Cameron, La. No comments here, just saying.

[USTropics]

Ok. Jason mentioned what looked like a developing mid level circulation south of La. I’m not much at posting images. But if someone would post a good visible pic of the system. There does look to be some significant and tightening turning developing well south of Cameron, La. No comments here, just saying.

Mid level vort: