Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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Haris
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#261 Postby Haris » Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:59 am

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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#262 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:29 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The combination of a surface trough and an upper-level low pressure
system is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. This system is
producing strong gusty winds over the northern and northwestern
Gulf. Environmental conditions do not support significant
development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today. This
activity will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts later today or tonight. For more details on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#263 Postby stormreader » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:51 pm

Big blow-up of convection centered very generally near 26N and 92W. Any t-storm activity over coastal areas from now on out will include very gusty winds(especially upon the onset of the squall). NHC has been mentioning this.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#264 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:07 pm

Did the 12z euro shift further north??? Being in Victoria I don’t like that???
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#265 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:23 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Did the 12z euro shift further north??? Being in Victoria I don’t like that???


Yes it has.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#266 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:27 pm

I’m expecting the Euro rainfall map to have some ridiculous totals after the end of this run and it even looks more widespread than the 0z from what I can tell so far anyway.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#267 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:28 pm

Can anyone post it??
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#268 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:30 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Can anyone post it??

I’m sure someone will in a few. I don’t have access to that.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#269 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:42 pm

12Z EURO rainfall is a Wow, Wow, Wow

Here is a link where you can see the rainfall in the most recent run and all members as well.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018061712/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180624-0000z.html
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#270 Postby stormreader » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:42 pm

Well, I only see models when they are posted here. But I can tell you that’s a huge blob of convection now in the GOM. About 26 N (generally). As system works WNW that rainfall should be headed toward the central Texas coast. Also have had smaller squalls move through already in SW La. Pretty gusty. Even without organization this mass of weather is going to bring basic trop storm conditions to the Texas coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#271 Postby ATCcane » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:48 pm

Big time totals on the latest euro. Mostly east of I 35 into southeast Texas. Widespread 10+ inch totals from Houston to the College Station area and south with some over 15inches closer to the coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#272 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:49 pm

The Euro shifts further north, the ICON model's scenario doesn't look as questionable anymore...
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Last edited by wxman22 on Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#273 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:49 pm

What the heck!

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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#274 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:51 pm

Icon model has been most consistent the last 2 days, tonight models should be interesting
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#275 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:What the heck!

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/LEieoRV.png[/img]


This could be a problem with the EURO honestly, it recently with through a update 2 weeks ago pointed out by Ryan on twitter.
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#276 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:What the heck!

https://i.imgur.com/LEieoRV.png


Definitely a glitch after it got updated.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#277 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:52 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Icon model has been most consistent the last 2 days, tonight models should be interesting


Were starting to say that everyday now. lol
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#278 Postby stormreader » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:58 pm

Really time now to start looking at potential (I say potential) disaster situation for parts of Texas. Organization of system (and some is forecast over land) will help to keep the system intact. Could be a big, big, weather story here. Doesn’t have to have a name to do incredible damage.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#279 Postby Haris » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:02 pm

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6” in ATX metro !!!!
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#280 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:03 pm

Is a good thing the surface trough axis is going to be moving inland soon, as if its vorticity is becoming better defined this afternoon just offshore.

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