Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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stormreader
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#121 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 20%-20%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low over the western
Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage since this morning. Recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a surface
circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the
north of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to
support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today
and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Well there you go. One of our posters was able to take the odds when the house (NHC) was offering 9-1, only %10 chance of development.NHC percent now is 20%. So if you forecast development now you only get 4-1 (if I did my math correctly.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf: 2 PM TWO=20%-20%

#122 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:54 pm

I think they went the conservative route they could have went to 30
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#123 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:04 pm

NHC will probably keep chances low unless reliable models come on board or this system shows signs of being close to a tropical cyclone.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#124 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:06 pm

Lookin on latest visible on NHC site there seems to be a small but distinct vort spinning over the northern Yucatan peninsula. Perhaps others???? also in the mass of convection. Located on land just to the NW of where that “tail” of heaviest convection is located over the peninsula.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#125 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:18 pm

What 12z ECMWF has is energy from Carlotta going north to the border near Brownsville.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#126 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:19 pm

EC now developing it, but like the ICON, its after landfall
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#127 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:20 pm

Might be first time ever I go against the euro
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#128 Postby SoupBone » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:21 pm

Image

There's still 40-50kts of shear right long the coast of Texas all the way up to Louisiana. Shouldn't this at least keep it in check? It's definitely not the 50-70 I've seen over the last several weeks, but this isn't exactly conducive for development either. Is that coastal shear expected to lessen too?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#129 Postby Haris » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:23 pm

is euro right? gfs is sooo different??? What will happen?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#130 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:26 pm

Still just looks like rain for TX and LA starting tomorrow afternoon. Development still unlikely. Looks less impressive now than it did earlier this morning. Shear is increasing as it moves toward Texas.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#131 Postby Haris » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:Still just looks like rain for TX and LA starting tomorrow afternoon. Development still unlikely. Looks less impressive now than it did earlier this morning. Shear is increasing as it moves toward Texas.


What do you make of the euro?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#132 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:32 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Might be first time ever I go against the euro


Maybe it’s just me, but the Euro doesn’t make any sense.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#133 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:34 pm

Same here I dunno lol..but we shall see
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#134 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:36 pm

Euro would give extreme south Texas and northern Mexico a major flood. Quite a few ensembles from the overnight run took this back out into the Gulf. Could be an interesting situation unfolding after day 4.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#135 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:43 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Euro would give extreme south Texas and northern Mexico a major flood. Quite a few ensembles from the overnight run took this back out into the Gulf. Could be an interesting situation unfolding after day 4.


What I don’t understand is how does the Euro have the vorticity coming ashore around the mid TX coast and then shunts it off very quickly ssw and strengthens the vorticity drastically over land and then rides the Mexico coastline due south.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#136 Postby jaguars_22 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:46 pm

What’s the euro showing for mid to coast rain wise
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#137 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:48 pm

What the Euro shows doesn’t even look like the 20/20% area. Once again it’s probably the remnants of Carlotta.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#138 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:48 pm

I could see this tagged as an Invest.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#139 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:49 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:What’s the euro showing for mid to coast rain wise


Probably not much, but I believe the Euro is the outlier right now as it’s the only model I know of that has the bulk of the rain in deep south Texas and northern Mexico. The other models have most of the rain along the middle and up TX coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#140 Postby Haris » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:49 pm

NWS does not buy the euro...

on WPC their latest 0z precip forecast came out,


less rain for STX , more for CTX...

Buying GFS! Seems real! EURO is MAD
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