Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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Weather150
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#21 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:42 pm

Image
12z GFS does have a weak surface low forming in 36 hrs.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#22 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:19 pm

From srain: The 12Z ECMWF has a very sharp trough attempting to close off a surface low as it approaches the Middle TX Coast Sunday morning near Matagorda Bay. This run of the Euro is the sharpest trough I've seen all week via the ECMWF.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#23 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:22 pm

SO that means central tx coast will get spared the heaviest rain and Houston and Louisiana gets the worst??
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#24 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:40 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:SO that means central tx coast will get spared the heaviest rain and Houston and Louisiana gets the worst??


Models have trended just the opposite - away from SE TX and LA with the heavier precip. 12z Euro has most of the precip moving into NE Mexico. GFS still has some heavy rain on the mid Texas coast, but not much from Houston eastward.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#25 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:42 pm

What do you think will happen? How much is Euro showing for Victoria
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#26 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:SO that means central tx coast will get spared the heaviest rain and Houston and Louisiana gets the worst??


Models have trended just the opposite - away from SE TX and LA with the heavier precip. 12z Euro has most of the precip moving into NE Mexico.



Yup model that hasn't is CMC.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#27 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:47 pm

Mcheer: so upper Texas coast wont get to much rain? Are models struggling with this feature ?
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#28 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:52 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Mcheer: so upper Texas coast wont get to much rain? Are models struggling with this feature ?


Too soon to say. The best forecast would still be 2-5 and 6+ isolated.

Invest 92l will probably be up soon.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#29 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:55 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:What do you think will happen? How much is Euro showing for Victoria


Euro has about 1-3 inches of rain in Victoria today through Wednesday.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#30 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:08 pm

WPC 15Z analysis depicts pressures around 1012 mb near the surface trough in the Northwest Caribbean.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#31 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:14 pm

850MB vorticity map shows increasing vorticity if you step back the last 6 hours in 3 hour increments:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#32 Postby Kazmit » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:24 pm

To be clear, this is a different system than 91L?
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#33 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:26 pm

Kazmit wrote:To be clear, this is a different system than 91L?


Yes
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#34 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:33 pm

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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#35 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:56 pm

Any 12z EPS support? Also if anyone has a free method of checking without clicking through every ensemble member on weather.us that would be greatly appreciated :D .
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#36 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:10 pm

With this kind of setup, qpf forecast can change drastically quickly for any given area, depending on if the system wraps up or not. If it does most of the rain would be shifted to the north and east of the center of circulation and a stronger system would be able to concentrate rains better over an area, which would probably give Southeast Texas the heaviest rain, while an open wave could have a harder time fighting off the High pressure to our east, hence why the models that show an open wave shunts the moisture plume further to our south quicker. While the models that show more of a closed low like the CMC produces a much higher amount of qpf across the area. Bears watch imo...
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#37 Postby psyclone » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:44 pm

There's a trend of persistent convection over the northwest Caribbean so far this season. With the MDR so cool the western Caribbean, Gulf and areas off the southeast coast will likely be the hot spots with close in development...maybe fewer systems overall but short fused threats that can escalate quickly...especially once we hit the mid August and beyond hot zone..
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#38 Postby stormreader » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:47 pm

Way back when, at the time that the GFS in particular began to give us model runs depicting formation coming out of the W Carib and into the GOM, we waited and from the monsoonal gyre interacting with a tropical wave we got 91l. I don't watch models near as closely as many on this site, but is it possible that the system we see now in the NW Carib might have been what the GFS (and a few other models) was hinting at for development in the GOM. Perhaps its academic, because from what I hear from many of you, the only model giving any real support for this feature right now is the CMC.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#39 Postby ForexTidbits » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:14 pm

Get ready for big changes in the forecast. This disturbance is gonna show sister 91L how its really done. Just give me one chance and I'll show you how its really done 91L.

Image

:D
Last edited by ForexTidbits on Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#40 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:16 pm

Siker wrote:Any 12z EPS support? Also if anyone has a free method of checking without clicking through every ensemble member on weather.us that would be greatly appreciated :D .


There seems to be quite a bit of support for a system in the gulf by the EPS but I'm not sure if that's the same system which is being discussed in this thread. In fact, some of the members are even showing hurricanes. Here are some useful EPS links:

Wind speed values for all individual EPS members:
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018061512-240.html

MSLP values for all EPS members:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_global_cyclones.php

Probability of a tropical depression, storm or hurricane:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_tropical.php
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