Travis Herzog ABC 13
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9:30PM SUNDAY TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE:
So far, so good, but the heaviest rains are still to come. Over the weekend, most of us picked up less than 1” of rain with some isolated pockets closer to 2”. That’s certainly manageable.
Tomorrow, some of us could get almost twice that much rain in a single hour as even deeper tropical moisture blows in.
Accurately predicting how much rain will fall and where it will fall are among the most difficult things to do in meteorology even just a day in advance, much more days in advance. And when it comes to tropical systems, there is always the potential for far greater amounts than what is generally expected.
For example, look at these two rainfall map projections. The top map is an average of the rainfall predictions from several computer model forecasts thru 7PM Monday. It shows generally 1-3” from Houston down to the coast. Now look at the bottom map. This one takes the maximum predicted rainfall for each location from those same models. Now it shows over 7” possible from Houston to the coast, with over 10” offshore. The expectation is the rain will be manageable, but there’s the potential it’s not.
No one can tell you exactly how much rain you’re going to get tomorrow (or the next five days for that matter), but I hope to give you a good feel for how the storms will evolve thru the day when you wake up each morning this week.
The big change to our forecast thinking today is that this low will meander around the central Texas coastline thru at least Thursday, which raises the bar that somewhere in southeast Texas we get more than just street flooding.
And those hefty rain accumulations expected offshore tomorrow will likely move onshore into coastal counties starting Tuesday.
We will do our best every day to keep you informed and aware with what’s happening now and the expectations of what’s to come.
Remember to drive with caution, especially at night. Your vehicle may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase the risk of hydroplaning. And if you come across a flooded underpass at any time the next few days, turn around, don’t drown!
More to come tomorrow.