Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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South Texas Storms
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#321 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:36 am

Haris wrote:Hill country gets 0 on euro. high is nudging into stupid TX.

Austin at 3" . Still good but makes me uneasy... Too close for comfort


Oh yeah the 0z models trends are not good for central TX. UKMET, Canadian, and Euro all shifted east. The desert SW high looks to keep areas of TX that really need rain dry...sigh.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#322 Postby Haris » Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:39 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Haris wrote:Hill country gets 0 on euro. high is nudging into stupid TX.

Austin at 3" . Still good but makes me uneasy... Too close for comfort


Oh yeah the 0z models trends are not good for central TX. UKMET, Canadian, and Euro all shifted east. The desert SW high looks to keep areas of TX that really need rain dry...sigh.


Yeah but they still show a good 2-4 for Austin . At least canadian and euro but trend has been bad. and we need rain more upstream to fill the lake.

If this trend continues , even Austin will get nothing . but hopefully this stops
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#323 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:42 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low pressure system
interacting with a surface trough located near the Texas coast.
Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
over Texas later today and tonight. However, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas
are likely to continue during the next few days. For more
details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Roberts
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#324 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:13 am

The HRRR is very aggressive with rainfall amounts today...

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#325 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:44 am

What did the 0z Euro show for rainfall?? Same huge amounts?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf

#326 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:51 am

wxman22 wrote:The HRRR is very aggressive with rainfall amounts today...

https://image.ibb.co/gGJ8Ny/hrrr_t_prec ... n_19_1.png


Concerning for Houston if that plays out the way HRRR is saying it will. I'm telling you I went out this morning and it feels super soupy out there today.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#327 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:27 am

Its hard to predict tropical systems and every system is different. There are some red flags early today saying that some flooding is possible in a isolated location but some may not get much rain if at all and how significant it will be will really depend on the atmosphere and what it has in store.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#328 Postby galvbay » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:50 am

Reporting from East Galveston Bay - Chambers County
.18” of rain. Early morning gust to 34 mph.
Bar 29.96r
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#329 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:58 am

About to take off today and erupt with heavy thunderstorm development bringing the first legitimate wave of heavy weather to the Texas coastal regions.

Image

Image

@crankywxguy
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#330 Postby WeatherCat » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:55 am

Is it just my eyes, or does it seem as if the system is stalled?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#331 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:59 am

Soak it in Houston, some places in Texas are only hoping to get the rain were getting today.

https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-b ... &label=you

Some places along the coast have gotten 1-3 inches already.

https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-b ... &label=you
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#332 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:00 am

This thing is possessed!! Could it not just sit off the coast 50 miles and blow up.... HOPE NOT :)
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#333 Postby ronyan » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:01 am

So far in the Lake Jackson area we've received 1.12", most of which fell between 7-8am. Getting dry slotted a little at this time.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#334 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:04 am

Saved radar loop

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#335 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:23 am

Image

@crankywxguy
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#336 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:52 am

Mesoscale Discussion

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#337 Postby stormreader » Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:13 pm

ForexTidbits wrote:Mesoscale Discussion

Image


Yes, sat imagery shows very cold cloud tops (serious precip) along the south-central Texas coast. Hopefully that’s an area that can handle it. Waiting for further penetration by storms into mainland Texas.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#338 Postby Haris » Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:16 pm

All HIRES guidance ,

RPM. WRF ARW , NAM 3K , NAM , TTUWRF , EURO all honing in on a BIG 4-8" rain event for Central TX!!! DONT USE GFS or globals now!

Get ready South Texas storms
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#339 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:29 pm

Models predicted precip over the next 36 hours. Saved Images.

Image

Image

HRRR 18 hours
Image


NWS Discussions

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181517
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A large area of rain with embedded heavier showers along the coast this
morning is gradually spreading inland, and this trend is expected to
continue for the rest of the morning and on through this afternoon.
Highest rainfall rates with some of the stronger reflectivities in/around
parts of Galveston and Brazoria counties have been between 1/2 and
1 inch per hour, but this activity has been moving off to the northwest
pretty fast resulting in 3 hour rainfall totals around an inch or less.
IR satellite imagery and area radars are indicating the most intense
and training rainfall so far has been focusing in/around the Corpus
Christi area and off their coast, and this might end up being the
area to watch today.

Our area can handle activity that is spread out over time with low
rainfall rates, However, any intense rainfall rates in a short period
of time could lead to flooding issues. 42
&&


PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/...

DISCUSSION...
Early morning satellite imagery shows convection blossoming over
the central Gulf. This development is associated with a tropical
wave and parent upper low approaching the Texas coast from the
east. Ahead of these feature, tropical moisture is still very
much in place early this morning with GOES Total Precipitable
Water satellite imagery showing precipitable water values of
1.9-2.2 inches across Southeast Texas. Aircraft soundings out of
Houston show that the mid-levels of the atmosphere are not quite
as saturated as previously advertised by forecast soundings
(observed dew point depression at 750 MB about 7 C versus forecast
dew point depressions 2-3 C).

While additional atmospheric moistening is expected through the
day, this somewhat drier mid-level air combined with observed
storm motions around 20-25 MPH will help limit rain coverage and
accumulations to under 0.5 inches near and south of the
Interstate 10 corridor through the morning commute. The potential
for higher rain totals will increase during the day, however, as
convective temperatures in the mid 80s today will allow for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid
to late morning. Speed convergence is expected to result in the
greatest coverage over the Gulf waters and south of the Highway 59
corridor today, short term guidance continues to advertise
highest rain totals occurring as a result of diurnal heating with
isolated cells capable of producing localized 1-3 inch amounts in
a short period of time. This locally heavy rain may result in
localized/minor urban flood issues this afternoon, but expect most
of the region to be able to handle the anticipated areal average
of anywhere from 0.25-1.5 inches of rainfall today. Cloud cover
and rain should help limit temperatures into the lower to mid 80s
today.

Loss of heating should allow for a downward trend in shower and
thunderstorm coverage over the northern counties by this evening,
but the increasing lift associated with the approach of the upper
low over the central Gulf will result in periods of rain
persisting through the overnight hours across the region. Best
coverage is still anticipated to remain along the coast with
anywhere from 1-2 inches possible south of Interstate 10 during
the overnight hours. Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to range
from the 70s inland to low 80s along the coast.

The upper low over the central Gulf this morning is expected to
near or move over the middle/lower Texas coast on Tuesday. Lobes
of energy rotating around the low are expected to result in waves
or bands of rainfall moving across the region during the day and
highest rain chances are expected to occur across the southwestern
counties, closer to the center of the upper low. Precipitable
water values peak near 2.2-2.4 inches during the day tomorrow and
this, combined with long, skinny CAPE profiles on forecast
soundings, will only serve to enhance the potential for high rain
rates. Low level winds still appear to promote fairly fast storm
motions, but their nearly unidirectional profile will keep the
potential for training storms high. Forecast rain amounts for
Tuesday range from roughly 1-3 inches south of Interstate 10 (and
less than that north), but training may promote locally enhanced
totals. At least a minor flooding risk will continue to exist on
Tuesday from locally heavy rain, but the actual flooding risk is
going to be highly dependent on what happens today. The region
should be able to handle 3-4 inches of rain over the course of an
afternoon and if we see that today, concerns will be heightened
for tomorrow. Conversely... if we don`t, concerns will be lowered.

Periods of rain will continue Tuesday night into Thursday as the
upper low wobbles along the middle/lower Texas coast. The threat
for locally heavy rain will persist through these periods with the
deep tropical moisture in place, but given the highly uncertain
nature of what the region`s sensitivity to additional rainfall
will be as a result of its dependence on what happens today and
tomorrow... only highlighting the potential for localized flooding
concerns. Rain chances will begin to taper off sometime Thursday
night or Friday as a passing upper trough over the Central Plains
shunts the low/inverted trough over south Texas into Mexico, with
broad mid-level ridging becoming established across the region by
this weekend. This should result in gradually warming temperatures
and low, mainly seabreeze driven rain chances this weekend.

Huffman
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#340 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:35 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler Radar data indicate that a
surface trough associated with an upper-level low pressure system
has moved onto the coast of Texas. This system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding
across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to
continue during the next few days. For more details on this
disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products
issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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