Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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Nederlander
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#361 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:22 pm

RBDnhm wrote:About 2.25” in 24 hours in Lumberton, Hardin County, just north of Beaumont. Hoping not a Harvey, with 50+ inches around us then.


I have seen no model support for any kind of stall out so I think it's safe to say we wont see any Harvey level flooding. That being said, the NWS out of Lake Charles does have a flash flood warning in effect for much of Jefferson Co. so there is potential for some minor flooding to occur in some areas.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#362 Postby stormreader » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:24 pm

RBDnhm wrote:About 2.25” in 24 hours in Lumberton, Hardin County, just north of Beaumont. Hoping not a Harvey, with 50+ inches around us then.


We always relive the last storm, we always fight the last war....just human nature. Hopefully will be okay. However, even before Harvey there were incidents along the Texas coast with incredible rainfall amounts. Claudette ‘79....Allison ‘01...and these from tropical storms. Can’t blame Texans for keeping a watchful eye on situation.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#363 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:24 pm

NAM 3Km is very concerning, A dangerous situation developing in South Texas with flooding likely.

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#364 Postby Steve » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:29 pm

Nederlander wrote:
RBDnhm wrote:About 2.25” in 24 hours in Lumberton, Hardin County, just north of Beaumont. Hoping not a Harvey, with 50+ inches around us then.


I have seen no model support for any kind of stall out so I think it's safe to say we wont see any Harvey level flooding. That being said, the NWS out of Lake Charles does have a flash flood warning in effect for much of Jefferson Co. so there is potential for some minor flooding to occur in some areas.


Some models have been hinting at a spinning low onshore in S TX. The EC was deriving itsrainfall totals from that and then it moved south. NAM had that scenario also.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#365 Postby davidiowx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:29 pm

Kinda surprised there aren't any flash flood watches over there on the TX/LA boarder.. Looks like they are in for some rain for the foreseeable future with plenty offshore heading inland.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#366 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:30 pm

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#367 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:32 pm

davidiowx wrote:Kinda surprised there aren't any flash flood watches over there on the TX/LA boarder.. Looks like they are in for some rain for the foreseeable future with plenty offshore heading inland.


NWS has said not needed until after today once the grounds become saturated. I'm sure they will issue one either tonight or sometime early tomorrow morning. The ground can still take some rain before flooding becomes a issue.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#368 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:34 pm

Looks like this is developing as it slowly comes ashore. This has been a possibility shown by several models for a while now. Whether the NHC classifies it is questionable. They typically don’t with these late bloomers as long as they go ahead and move inland. Regardless, impacts will be the same with torrential rain the main issue. Not good for an area ravaged by Harvey’s floods less than a year ago.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#369 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:35 pm

What path would it take?? Slow NW?? Since I’m in Victoria how much should I expect??
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#370 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:38 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:What path would it take?? Slow NW?? Since I’m in Victoria how much should I expect??

10-15” appears likely for your area.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#371 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:38 pm

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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#372 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:52 pm

Well were sitting at .25 :) 100 percent chance of rain today lasted a whole 5 min... Nobody knows whats going to happen with this BLOB
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#373 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:07 pm

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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#374 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:14 pm

Flash flood warning for Jefferson and Orange counties in SE Texas until 6 pm CDT

Band continues to organize.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#375 Postby Storm Battered » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:22 pm

ForexTidbits wrote:Image


Source?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#376 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:25 pm

Storm Battered wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:Image


Source?

From HGX's AFD.

334
FXUS64 KHGX 182032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Bands of rain with embedded heavier showers have been moving mainly
to the west and northwest across the area today. So far, locally
heavy rainfall has happened in a very small area (2 to 3 inches
along the Harris/Chambers county line) where some brief training
did set up. Currently, more intense and prolonged training just to
our east in/around the Beaumont area has resulting in a flash
flood warning. The airmass in place supports bands similar to this
one to possibly set up across parts of Southeast Texas over the
next several days as the slow moving Gulf system lingers near the
Texas coast. Models are still having a very very very very very
difficult time indicating where this could possibly happen, with
different locations and amounts evident on nearly every run that
comes out. But conditions still appear favorable for additional
rounds of storms over the next several days in and around our
area, and locally heavy rain will continue to be possible. Through
Thursday, rainfall totals could range from 3 to 5 inches in/around
our northern counties to around 10 inches or even higher closer to
the Matagorda Bay area. If these totals are spread out over time
with rain rates on the low side, the area could handle things
well. However, any intense rainfall in a short period of time
could lead to flooding issues. Based on what has fallen so far
today along with the possibility that rains could be spread out
over several days, highish flash flood guidance values and the
lack of saturated soils, we will not be issuing a Flash Flood
Watch at this time. A watch and/or warnings will be needed if any
banding/training of heavy rainfall does develop. If the rainfall
totals previously mentioned do happen, we`ll likely end up having
some river/bayou/creek issues too. Just because your location has
gotten little to no rainfall yet does not mean you will stay dry
over the next several days. So keep up with the latest forecasts
during this ongoing potentially heavy rain event as things could
rapidly change. 42
&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving, weakly organized tropical wave continues to drift
over the western Gulf of Mexico. This has brought increased winds
and seas as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
region as advertised. The Small Craft Advisory will continue
through the day Tuesday, and has been extended into Wednesday
morning for the offshore waters as seas will by slow to subside.

Tides are expected to remain 1 to 1.5 feet above astronomical levels
today, with high tide at the Galveston Bay Entrance peaking a little
over 3 feet above MLLW at high tide. Given impacts to vulnerable
locations, a coastal flood advisory continues along the Bolivar
Peninsula. Strong rip currents will remain a threat on Gulf facing
beaches for at least another day.

Evans

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/

AVIATION...
Yet another complicated aviation forecast today with broad
tropical wave and associated moisture feed into sern TX. Models
continue to bring widespread MVFR for all terminals through the
period, however timing and actual location of the more intense
storms/bands difficult to pinpoint. Will keep mostly MVFR
conditions in place, although breaks of VFR will also occur for
most locations, with brief IFR in the intense rain cores.

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 84 74 84 74 / 50 70 40 70 40
Houston (IAH) 76 83 76 83 77 / 80 80 50 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 80 84 81 84 82 / 80 80 60 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Matagorda Islands.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning for the following zones: Matagorda
Islands.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#377 Postby Storm Battered » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:02 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Storm Battered wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:Image


Source?

From HGX's AFD.


Thanks! I was looking through a few of them. The "very very very very" should not have been that difficult to find, but it was. :D
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#378 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:41 pm

Started raining here in Lumberton, Tx around 11:00am light at first and on and on since then. Rains have really picked up in strength in the last 4 hours and the frequency it comes. At least 3-4 in since it started where I live in Lumberton.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#379 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:48 pm

Saved radar loop.

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#380 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:06 pm

Upper level conditions have really improved over the disturbance today with an upper level cyclone building on top of it.

Image
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