Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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CyclonicFury
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#41 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:16 pm

18z ICON appears to develop this just off the coast of Texas.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#42 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:19 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:18z ICON appears to develop this just off the coast of Texas.

Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#43 Postby ForexTidbits » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:21 pm

WPC Rainfall outlook as of June 15

Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#44 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:22 pm

WAcyclone wrote:
Siker wrote:Any 12z EPS support? Also if anyone has a free method of checking without clicking through every ensemble member on weather.us that would be greatly appreciated :D .


There seems to be quite a bit of support for a system in the gulf by the EPS but I'm not sure if that's the same system which is being discussed in this thread. In fact, some of the members are even showing hurricanes. Here are some useful EPS links:

Wind speed values for all individual EPS members:
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018061512-240.html

MSLP values for all EPS members:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_global_cyclones.php

Probability of a tropical depression, storm or hurricane:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_tropical.php



Some of those are later in time (including the hurricanes). <10 are developing this wave, but certainly more than 00z. Thanks!
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#45 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:29 pm

Weather150 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:18z ICON appears to develop this just off the coast of Texas.

Image



Jumped north from 12z run
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#46 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:31 pm

Siker wrote:
WAcyclone wrote:
Siker wrote:Any 12z EPS support? Also if anyone has a free method of checking without clicking through every ensemble member on weather.us that would be greatly appreciated :D .


There seems to be quite a bit of support for a system in the gulf by the EPS but I'm not sure if that's the same system which is being discussed in this thread. In fact, some of the members are even showing hurricanes. Here are some useful EPS links:

Wind speed values for all individual EPS members:
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018061512-240.html

MSLP values for all EPS members:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_global_cyclones.php

Probability of a tropical depression, storm or hurricane:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_tropical.php



Some of those are later in time (including the hurricanes). <10 are developing this wave, but certainly more than 00z. Thanks!


Yes, it looks like most of the activity predicted by the EPS occurs after 96 hours. The wave currently near the Yucatan peninsula will be overland by then... Note that the operational ECMWF also shows this new feature as an area of significantly enhanced vorticity over Tamaulipas in around five days.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#47 Postby stormreader » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:38 pm

Looks like the "center" of this system is onshore now over the Yucatan. Let's see what it looks like as it comes off the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#48 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:43 pm

Image
18z GFS
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#49 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:46 pm

This is from a Pro Met I know - he said I could post it:

Good Friday to all of you out there. I hope your week has been a good one. Alright, so here we are in the middle of June with something to talk about. First off, let me start off by saying, this will not be a major threat to many of you. Matter of fact, I think it will offer the area some much needed beneficial rains. That forecast I will have for you in just a little bit. First off, I do want to go on a little rant here.

I know many of you saw about 7 days ago or so of people showing on social media (professional meteorologist mind you) of a category 2 hitting the upper Texas coast. I have never understood why people show this because first off, 9 times out of 10, this will not happen and secondly, most models, even the best ones are not that accurate. So I just say this...if you see something like that, please, please, please don't buy into the hype of it. If it deserves a mention, I promise you I will provide it to you in the most accurate and dependable way possible. That is the problem with social media and weather models today. You have to use intuition and in a sense, your gut as well. That is one of my reasons for waiting so long to write this email to many of you, because I wanted the hype to tail off and then I could go on with an actual forecast to send you all. Sorry about the rant everyone but something I just had to get off my chest. So here it goes...

So, curretly we are looking at an area of disturbed weather across the extreme western Caribbean Sea. The new GOES-16 visible shows a large area of thunderstorms but as you can see, there isn't much spin associated with this activity.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

Looking at the water vapor imagery which shows the mid to upper levels. This shows stuff that can inhibit development such as dry air along with showing ridges and troughs. As you can see in the imagine, there is a lot of dry air ahead of this thing that will likely make development really slow at best.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

You may also notice a little spin across the western Gulf. This can mean two things: first of all, an upper low very close to a system like the one we are monitoring can keep this thing from further developing because it increases shear. Time and time again I talk a lot about shear and this is bad for the storm. Secondly, this usually is a pretty good indicator of where this disturbance will end up. Currently, it appear it will be heading for either south Texas or northern Mexico.

The reason for is there is a ridge of high pressure currently across the southeast United States that continues to build further westward. This will push the system also further west away from the central and upper Texas coast.

This figure above is the GFS American model. And this shows what the upper levels of the atmopshere could look like but it is a good GENERAL idea of how things are going to pan out early next week.

CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT
Right now, I would say there is a less than 10% chance of development through the Saturday and a 20-30% chance of development Sunday into Monday before it moves into northern Mexico or southern Texas. There is just too much shear for it to deal with and while the waters are well above average, there shear which doesn't allow the thunderstorms to grow will be too much to overcome. That is the more important factor than the water temps.

WHAT TO EXPECT
Even if this is just going to be a disturbance, we all learned our lesson from Harvey. While it did hit several hundred miles to the southwest of Beaumont, Houston and Southwest Louisiana, because those areas were on the east side, they still did receive heavy rainfall. I think this will be the case here, however I can promise you, Harvey-like rainfall amounts aren't expected with this disturbance. I will get to that in a little bit.

PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS
So here is what we can expect for areas along the coast from the south Texas coast up to the middle Louisiana coastline.

Brownsville-Corpus Christi, TX (includes Alice, McAllen, Kingsville, Harlingen) -
5-8" isolated 10-12"

Corpus Christ-Port O'Connor, TX (Port Aransas, Victoria, Port Lavaca) -
3-5" isolated 6-8"

Port O'Connor-Galveston, TX (Lake Jackson, El Campo, Sugar Land, Houston, Pearland, Pasadena, Texas City, Conroe, Woodlands, Katy) - 2-4" isolated 4-6"

Galveston-Sabine Pass, TX (Baytown, Winnie, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lumberton, Vidor, Buna) - 2-4" isolated 4-5"

Sabine Pass, TX-Lake Charles, LA - 1-3" isolated 4-5"

Also, please keep in mind the coastal areas will see the most rain and I would consider Interstate 10 and good cutoff from the heaviest rains versus the lighter amounts as well. Some ponding is possible across the area on roads and if you get under one of the heavy tropical downpours, you could also see some brief flooding.

We are still early in the season but there is always the threat for development anywhere across the Atlantic basin.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Nathan_Weather. I will also post the PayPal information below.

Have a great Friday and weekend everyone,
Nathan
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#50 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:54 pm

18z GFS

Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#51 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:56 pm

It's sad that CMC has been the most consistent model
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#52 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:25 pm

The 18z GFS and ICON models look like they may be trending towards the CMC, the 0z runs will be interesting... Also to note the energy moving more to the north (Middle Texas coast) on the 18z GFS increased its rainfall totals across southeast Texas than what it was showing the last few runs fwiw.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#53 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:11 pm

12z Euro Ensembles are quite bullish actually with this area, several develop a hurricane out of this.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#54 Postby Haris » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:20 pm

Image

Alot wetter
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#55 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:35 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to the southern Gulf of Mexico is
associated with a surface trough. Although environmental conditions
are not expected to be favorable for significant development, heavy
rain and gusty winds are likely across the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight. These conditions will spread across the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday and are expected to reach portions of the Texas
and southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday. For more details on
this system please see products issued by your local weather office
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#56 Postby Haris » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:39 pm

Image

GEFS ! Up
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#57 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:58 pm

stormreader wrote:Looks like the "center" of this system is onshore now over the Yucatan. Let's see what it looks like as it comes off the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.


The Southeastern pole of the trough does appear to be about mid Yucatan as of 8 PM.
You can see some wrap in the surface clouds there.
Could close off as some models have forecast depending on the shear.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#58 Postby stormreader » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:11 pm

Nimbus wrote:
stormreader wrote:Looks like the "center" of this system is onshore now over the Yucatan. Let's see what it looks like as it comes off the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.


The Southeastern pole of the trough does appear to be about mid Yucatan as of 8 PM.
You can see some wrap in the surface clouds there.
Could close off as some models have forecast depending on the shear.

Yeah. Very unscientific, but this feature has that “look”. So will be watching tomorrow. Hearing Euro ensemble forecasts of something significant, but NHC says no.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#59 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:19 pm

850mb vorticity really getting going:

Image
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#60 Postby Alyono » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:55 pm

stormreader wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
stormreader wrote:Looks like the "center" of this system is onshore now over the Yucatan. Let's see what it looks like as it comes off the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.


The Southeastern pole of the trough does appear to be about mid Yucatan as of 8 PM.
You can see some wrap in the surface clouds there.
Could close off as some models have forecast depending on the shear.

Yeah. Very unscientific, but this feature has that “look”. So will be watching tomorrow. Hearing Euro ensemble forecasts of something significant, but NHC says no.


There's a whole 25% chance of development from this area and not until the 6-10 day time frame. May not be this system the EC ensemble is developing
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