Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1224
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#61 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:17 pm

Alyono wrote:
stormreader wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
The Southeastern pole of the trough does appear to be about mid Yucatan as of 8 PM.
You can see some wrap in the surface clouds there.
Could close off as some models have forecast depending on the shear.

Yeah. Very unscientific, but this feature has that “look”. So will be watching tomorrow. Hearing Euro ensemble forecasts of something significant, but NHC says no.


There's a whole 25% chance of development from this area and not until the 6-10 day time frame. May not be this system the EC ensemble is developing


This system is long gone by then, I suspect the remnants of Carlotta crossing over into the BoC
4 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 7621
Age: 46
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#62 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:27 pm

Just took a look at some satellite loops. You can see the outflow of the Yucatan system (92L-to-be?) is spreading all the way to the Florida peninsula, but definitely asymmetrical to the east, indicating a lot of shear.

I would expect the center to have reformations to the NE over time and the bulk of the rains to the north and east of the center.
3 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1278
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#63 Postby Haris » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:33 pm

ICOn says, what the he## NWS??

Im not gonna let you win with 5" totals in STX!

Im bringing them to HOuston baby! LOL
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

ForexTidbits
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#64 Postby ForexTidbits » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:34 pm

Haris wrote:ICOn says, what the he## NWS??

Im not gonna let you win with 5" totals in STX!

Im bringing them to HOuston baby! LOL


lol
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1450
Age: 21
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#65 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:54 pm

00z GFS appears to be weaker with this system
0 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7736
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#66 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:59 pm

GFS through 78 is streaming the rain that way too, Galveston looks like where its aim is. I guess all along a second push was Sunday/Monday and not 91L. Would be odd to see general low pressure remain around STX per ICON and NAM with maybe a ghost low coming over from the pacific. Idk.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 7621
Age: 46
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#67 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:00 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:00z GFS appears to be weaker with this system


Yep, it never closes off. But it brings repeated waves of rain to the Middle & Upper TX coasts.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#68 Postby Alyono » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:00 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Alyono wrote:
stormreader wrote:Yeah. Very unscientific, but this feature has that “look”. So will be watching tomorrow. Hearing Euro ensemble forecasts of something significant, but NHC says no.


There's a whole 25% chance of development from this area and not until the 6-10 day time frame. May not be this system the EC ensemble is developing


This system is long gone by then, I suspect the remnants of Carlotta crossing over into the BoC


I think it's a tropical wave near 50W
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Houston,Tx
Contact:

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#69 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:32 pm

The 0z CMC almost looks identical to its previous run, showing what looks to be a depression, fwiw the RGEM also tries to develop the system it even shows the system forming an "Eye" on its simulated IR satellite LOL :P

Image

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#70 Postby StruThiO » Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:38 am

still 10/10.
0 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1278
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#71 Postby Haris » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:32 am

euro has a hurricane near mexico and sits LOL
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3251
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#72 Postby tailgater » Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:52 am

Looking like a circulation may be developing over land this morning, hard to tell just from rgb sat loops.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4021
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#73 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:37 am

tailgater wrote:Looking like a circulation may be developing over land this morning, hard to tell just from rgb sat loops.



The southern flank of the wave is pulling in moist air from the west off the Bay of Campeche.
To be scientific I suppose we need to explain that the air cools as it lifts and above 60,000 feet that cooled air appears as a big red blob with white specks.
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 902
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#74 Postby Siker » Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:34 am

I’m not entirely sure where that storm on the Euro is coming from. But it has some EPS and GEFS support.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12769
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#75 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:45 am

Nice flare of convection again this morning, no sign of defined surface circulation that I can see but pressures have fallen in the Yucatan P and BOC a good 3 mb compared to 24 hrs ago.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7857
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#76 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:45 am

Siker wrote:I’m not entirely sure where that storm on the Euro is coming from. But it has some EPS and GEFS support.

Remnants of Carlotta is my only guess. Looks suspect to me.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120771
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#77 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:48 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface
trough and an upper-level low are occuring over the Yucatan
Peninsula and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Although environmental
conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant
development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to spread across
the central Gulf of Mexico today and will reach portions of the
Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on Sunday. For more details
on this system please see products issued by your local weather
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12769
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#78 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:31 am

One thing that the system has that it did not have 24 hrs ago is some surface convergence.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12769
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#79 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:36 am

Not the best beach day in Cancun this morning.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19803
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#80 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:38 am

tailgater wrote:Looking like a circulation may be developing over land this morning, hard to tell just from rgb sat loops.


Surface obs over the Yucatan say "nope". I see a wave axis.
2 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”