Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1224
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#81 Postby Kazmit » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:45 am

Shear doesn't look like it'll be an issue for now...

Image
0 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11338
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#82 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:47 am

Saved vis loop, nice inflow into the storms from the Caribbean. Slight circulation is all in the mid levels.

Image
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5916
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#83 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:53 am

:uarrow: :uarrow: Definitely see a good wave sharpening in the LL cumulus in the NW Carib. Sea. I don't think it will take much longer today and we see a surface LLC if this convection keeps up.
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 851
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#84 Postby Siker » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:01 am

Looks like whatever the Euro is trying to develop is energy dragged North with this wave but left in the BoC, combined with some of Carlotta’s energy.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6123
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#85 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:08 am

With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.
4 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#86 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:12 am

Should be a invest no doubt
1 likes   

EasyTiger
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:42 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#87 Postby EasyTiger » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:21 am

GFS from last Sunday's 06Z run...not bad

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19142
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#88 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:21 am

Euro ensembles say 8% chance of development next 3-5 days. GFS ensembles at 0%. It is more "blobby" today (that's a technical meteorological term). Something to keep an eye on, but not much model support.
2 likes   

stormreader
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#89 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:25 am

EasyTiger wrote:GFS from last Sunday's 06Z run...not bad

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_23.png


Not bad at all!
0 likes   

stormreader
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#90 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:32 am

TheStormExpert wrote:With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.


Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11338
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#91 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:47 am

Nice mid level circuation, it will be interesting if a surface circulation forms near this later today.

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3086
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#92 Postby tailgater » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:48 am

stormreader wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.


Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.


I'll take that bet and you're gonna reget cuz I'm the best there's ...... Ha ha I'm sleep deprived.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6123
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#93 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:54 am

Yeah not much Euro Ensemble support for this as Wxman57 said. Here are the 00z Euro Ensembles through 72hrs. (excluding the longer range stuff)

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

stormreader
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#94 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:56 am

tailgater wrote:
stormreader wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.


Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.


I'll take that bet and you're gonna reget cuz I'm the best there's ...... Ha ha I'm sleep deprived.

Don't blame you at all for that bet! You really like the look of that horse, and you don't get 9-1 everyday. Good luck!
1 likes   

User avatar
latitude_20
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
Location: Tulum, Mexico
Contact:

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#95 Postby latitude_20 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:31 am

Greetings from Tulum, Mexico. Day 4 of rolling thunder, pouring rain. 6 power outages in the last 2 hours. And they ask me why I drink.

But seriously, is it me or does this thing look like it should at least be an invest?

Lat20
4 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#96 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:52 am

The nam is following the icon foot steps
1 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 851
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#97 Postby Siker » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:02 am

ICON is more organized this run, sending a broad 1007mb TD into Matagorda Bay.
0 likes   

ForexTidbits
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#98 Postby ForexTidbits » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:10 am

Could the GFS be right 2 weeks ago about a hurricane forming in the gulf??? Only time will tell....

Give me INVEST 92L already

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3714
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#99 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:20 am

The high cirrus clouds are streaming a little more slowly in the familiar concentric pattern that often indicates higher pressure might be developing mid gulf. Most of the trough circulation is likely still WNW of the shear induced convection.
1 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1140
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#100 Postby Haris » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:26 am

the fact nam is going to icon and their entire camp makes me soo anxious ! model war !!!!
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests