Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form along a
stationary front near the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday.
Thereafter, environmental conditions could support this system
acquiring some tropical characteristics over the next few days as
the system moves eastward or northeastward away from the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


$$
Forecaster Blake

[TheStormExpert]

Probably won’t amount to anything, once again the Euro went crazy with development in this region.

[wxman57]

I think it's likely that a low is going to form near the Outer Banks tomorrow morning, but it will definitely be attached to a front to start with. Big question is whether it can detach from the front sometime between tomorrow morning and Friday night/Saturday morning when it's approaching Newfoundland.

[cycloneye]

@NCWeatherhound
The Euro made this call a few days ago. If the system develops, it won't be a threat to the Carolinas. Think Claudette in2015.

 https://twitter.com/NCWeatherhound/status/1011599911534645248

[CyclonicFury]

The Euro may not be too crazy with the idea of development. Systems like this commonly develop off the East Coast early in the season, especially in El Niño years which 2018 looks likely to be one. Most commonly, they form in July or early August rather than June though.

[Alyono]

ICON is bringing this nearly back into the coast now

[wxman57]

ICON is bringing this nearly back into the coast now

Looks completely unrealistic. Nothing to block it and shove it west. Clear avenue to the northeast.

[OuterBanker]

Could prove to be interesting and surprise to visitors.
No mention at all from local weather casts.
Wind steady 20 mph and building.
Water 77 to 82.
Should go up and away, only monkey wrench is if it stalls off the coast.
Below links US Corp of Engineers Duck NC
NC Aquariums Janetts Pier Nags Head NC

http://www.frf.usace.army.mil/frf.shtml
http://www.ncaquariums.com/jennettes-pi ... conditions

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure has formed near the
coast of North Carolina. Environmental conditions could support
this system gradually acquiring some tropical characteristics over
the next few days while the system moves slowly eastward or
northeastward away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[CyclonicFury]

Now that a low appears to have formed, wonder if we will see an Invest designation soon.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't declare that a low has formed. I can't discern any circulation in cloud motions. Winds sort of suggest a low, but that could just be winds north of and south of the front that extends to the NC coast. Pressures are high (1020mb). 12Z EC drops pressures to near 1016mb there by 15Z tomorrow. Frontal low, not tropical. That's all we have in so far.

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro is much weaker and now shows no TC development.

[Steve]

@NCWeatherhound
The Euro made this call a few days ago. If the system develops, it won't be a threat to the Carolinas. Think Claudette in2015.

The European caught up with the Canadian's idea. The European had some disturbed weather coming up from the Caribbean. That was Saturday. CMC had the low forming off the NC or SC coast in advance. Canadian was the model to sniff this out.

[wxman57]

Much more likely solution from the GFS, CMC, and Euro today - weak low forms along the front tomorrow morning then dissipates by Thursday morning.

[OuterBanker]

I agree with Wxman. I can't see it separating from the front. Not much energy to gather even though it's in warm water.
Btw, wasn't that the wave that went poof between Cuba and the Bahama's.

[CyclonicFury]

Very little support on the 12Z EPS.

[OuterBanker]

LOL, Icon now showing a 1001 low off the NC coast. In 180 from a different source.
Can we use the same thread on July 4?

[wxman57]

LOL, Icon now showing a 1001 low off the NC coast. In 180 from a different source.
Can we use the same thread on July 4?

It's the same feature. The ICON takes a weak disturbance eastward for 4-5 days then moves it back west while strengthening it.

[CyclonicFury]

Down to 10%/10%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262340
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from eastern
North Carolina eastward over the western Atlantic are associated
with a weak non-tropical area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions could support some limited development of this system
during the next day or two before the system moves northeastward
away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[AJC3]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak, non-tropical low pressure system located just offshore of
the southeastern coast of North Carolina is producing a small area
of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for some limited
development of this system during the next day or two before the
low moves northeastward away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart