Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

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cycloneye
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:34 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak, non-tropical low pressure system located offshore of the
the southeastern coast of North Carolina continues to produce a
small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development while
this system moves northeastward away from the United States during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Brennan
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#22 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:27 am

Not sure if what the ECMWF is showing retrograding back towards the US mainland is this or something else?

Saved animated loop below, hours 96 through 240:

Image
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#23 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am

The Euro really didn't do well with this system. GFS handled its evolution much better. It seems like the since the upgrade the Euro has developed many "homegrown" phantoms of non-tropical origin.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#24 Postby Steve » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:56 am

CyclonicFury wrote:The Euro really didn't do well with this system. GFS handled its evolution much better. It seems like the since the upgrade the Euro has developed many "homegrown" phantoms of non-tropical origin.


?

Nothing has happened yet. Are you referring to the evolution on the CONUS up to this point?
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#25 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:02 am

Steve wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:The Euro really didn't do well with this system. GFS handled its evolution much better. It seems like the since the upgrade the Euro has developed many "homegrown" phantoms of non-tropical origin.


?

Nothing has happened yet. Are you referring to the evolution on the CONUS up to this point?

I am talking about how the Euro originally rapidly developed this near the Outer Banks. That has not happened, and the models nor NHC anticipate further development now.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#26 Postby USTropics » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:13 am

I posted this one June 16th:

Buyer's beware of the ECMWF EC forecasted system. It seems to have a bias towards developing vigorous LLC's off frontal zones that swoop down into the SE CONUS. This is now the third time in the past month that the ECMWF master run and some of the ensembles have shown tropical cyclone genesis, and so far it's 0/2


That was for an entirely different genesis as well, so the ECMWF is now 0/4 on forecasting cyclone genesis in the NE GOM/EC since the last week of May. Unless the GFS/UKMET agree with the ECMWF, it has next to 0 reliability for forecast genesis in this area.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#27 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:53 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:The Euro really didn't do well with this system. GFS handled its evolution much better. It seems like the since the upgrade the Euro has developed many "homegrown" phantoms of non-tropical origin.


Yep, the GFS cleaned the Euro’s clock on this. ATL basin continues to look quiet for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#28 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:57 am

I definitely would not immediately count out the possibility of tropical or subtropical cyclone genesis off the SE US coast and SW Atlantic next week. Patterns like this with a big anticyclonic wave break to the north are notorious for allowing tropical mischief to fester underneath (so-called "ridge over troubled waters"). An upper level low will pinch off from the mean flow and retrograde westward underneath this burgeoning mid-upper level ridge to the north. Although tropical cyclogenesis often does not occur in association w/ upper level lows largely due to the fact that they simply don't have enough time to allow moist convection to erode their cold mid-upper level cores, this upper level low would actually have more than enough time, several days in fact, to acquire at least hybrid warm core characteristics before nearing the SE US. Don't go to sleep on this.

Image
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#29 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:59 am

Just to reiterate what I'm saying above.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1011963267114250242


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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#30 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:35 am

Eric Webb wrote:I definitely would not immediately count out the possibility of tropical or subtropical cyclone genesis off the SE US coast and SW Atlantic next week. Patterns like this with a big anticyclonic wave break to the north are notorious for allowing tropical mischief to fester underneath (so-called "ridge over troubled waters"). An upper level low will pinch off from the mean flow and retrograde westward underneath this burgeoning mid-upper level ridge to the north. Although tropical cyclogenesis often does not occur in association w/ upper level lows largely due to the fact that they simply don't have enough time to allow moist convection to erode their cold mid-upper level cores, this upper level low would actually have more than enough time, several days in fact, to acquire at least hybrid warm core characteristics before nearing the SE US. Don't go to sleep on this.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_6.png


This is the only system I can see where tropical or subtropical development could develop next week close to the US from this retrograding ULL but not from retrograding low level vorticity along the gulf coast that some are pointing out, too much northerly shear over it. IMO.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#31 Postby Siker » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:04 am

Anyone have examples of TC’s that originated from ULL’s? Joaquin and possibly Michael 2012 come to mind.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#32 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:34 am

Siker wrote:Anyone have examples of TC’s that originated from ULL’s? Joaquin and possibly Michael 2012 come to mind.


Here are just a few going back to 2000:

TS Arlene (2017)
Hurricane Alex (2016)
TS Ana (2015)
Unnamed TS (2013)
TS Beryl (2012)
TS Grace (2009)
Subtropical Storm Andrea (2007)
TS Olga (2007)
Hurricane Catarina (2004) (south Atlantic)
TS Ana (2003)
Hurricane Karen (2001)
Hurricane Florence (2000)
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#33 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:07 pm

It will probably go poof.
Don't look now but there is llc and mid level convection around 67 W 33 N.
I wonder is this is what the Euro was hinting at retrograding toward coast in earlier forecasts.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#34 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:38 pm

OuterBanker wrote:It will probably go poof.
Don't look now but there is llc and mid level convection around 67 W 33 N.
I wonder is this is what the Euro was hinting at retrograding toward coast in earlier forecasts.


Actually, the 12Z Euro (and the CMC/GFS to some extent) still has a westward moving disturbed area underneath a 594+ mb NE-Midwest US 500 mb high in the form of a very weak sfc low/upper low. Before that, the run has a piece of energy/moisture break off from the front off the NE US near 65W that first moves south over the weekend to near 30N. Then it turns westward on Monday as the upper high strengthens to the N and NW and goes all the way up to 200 mb thus keeping shear only light to moderate/changes steering to westward. The weak disturbance then moves into the SE US on Wednesday. Though unlikely as of now, this will be interesting to watch to see if it tries to transition into a TC before reaching the coast (if it does) on Wednesday.

Edit: this energy appears to currently be near where the early week Euros erroneously had that TC form off NC and mainly move NE to the current position. So, maybe it is related.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#35 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:58 am

The "blob" around 66 W 32 N seems to have greatly improved since yesterday moving ever so slowly sse.
I usually don't mention blobs but, it is the only thing going for now in the western Atlantic.
I am surprised at no season over statements although most of us know that July is traditionally the slowest month of the season.
Thought for sure something was going to happen with all the flare ups in the gulf and central Fl yesterday, but poof.
Everyone east of the Mississippi is going to praying for rain this week to break the heat including me.
Air is so stable in the east I don't see that happening.
July is such a hot, boring and stable weather month :cry:
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#36 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:02 am

The 12Z Euro, 0Z GFS, and 6Z GFS all bring in the aforementioned system westward underneath a very strong upper high into the SE US coast on Wednesday leading to increased shower/thunderstorm in the SE then. The 0Z Euro is about to come out.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#37 Postby OuterBanker » Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:55 am

Ahhh, the crazy cousin (Canadian) is back at it again in the 12z in 240. Not sure of the origin though.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#38 Postby Siker » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:20 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Ahhh, the crazy cousin (Canadian) is back at it again in the 12z in 240. Not sure of the origin though.


That would be from the wave exiting Africa right now.
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Re: Watching Offshore North Carolina Coast

#39 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:27 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro, 0Z GFS, and 6Z GFS all bring in the aforementioned system westward underneath a very strong upper high into the SE US coast on Wednesday leading to increased shower/thunderstorm in the SE then. The 0Z Euro is about to come out.


All 12Z models still have this system moving westward and back to the SE coast late Wednesday, which should lead to enhanced convective activity late Tue/Wed/Thu in parts of the SE US, especially closer to the coast.
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