Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

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Siker
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Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

#1 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:40 am

Starting a thread for this since there is a clear area to look at, if not much model support at this time.

Saved IR loop:

Image
Last edited by Siker on Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:04 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#2 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:47 am

Siker wrote:Starting a thread for this since there is a clear area to look at, if not much model support at this time.

Saved IR loop:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/nckUOie.gif[img]


Looks like leftovers from yesterday's MCSs
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#3 Postby ava_ati » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:48 am

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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#4 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:56 am

Shear looks to be light for the next few days. The main issue will be land interaction. You can see there are two centers of vorticity: one in the Gulf and one over Georgia. Models show these areas pivoting around each other like a meek Fujiwhara interaction, dragging the area over the Gulf onshore.

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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#5 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:01 am

Yeah, I think it's basically a surface trough with mid-level energy juicing it. Some people said nothing would form there due to shear. But it was an eddy position, and I would expect to see some spin over the weekend along with some pulsing as the trough retrogrades across the Gulf. If the eventual low level circulation is over water, I'd give it about a 15% shot at forming a depression and maybe a 5% chance at a tropic storm toward the Texas Gulf Coast. But either way, most of the NE and NC Gulf will be on the wet side of the trough in the coming days, so the heat might get broken down a bit.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#6 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:54 pm

\
Convection building somewhat in NE Gulf.


http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#7 Postby ronjon » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:20 pm

Starting to pick up some weak banding on radar - could all be mid-level though. Lowest pressure about 30.00 at Cross City.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim8vis.html
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#8 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:50 pm

Clearly can see the 850mb spin just off the coast of Apalachicola, in the bay.

It shows up great on close-up visible on GOES-16!
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-FL_Panhandle-truecolor-48-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbars= **Speed up animation and it may help see it.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#9 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:59 pm

It’s pretty juicy. Lots of gust fronts on the perimeter in all directions along with strong T-storms bubbling up on land. I still don’t think anything is going to come out of the but maybe a cool low pressure looking feature along the north gulf or se us.

Rain missed us just to the north and south but lots of thunder and lightning. Qpf for 00Z Sat has 2.5 to 7” across the inmediate Gulf Coast and adjacent coastal waters.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#10 Postby Clearcloudz » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:46 pm

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Last edited by Clearcloudz on Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#11 Postby tailgater » Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:30 am

I can't see any low forming over southern GA/ALA yet but possibly in the NE GOM west of Tampa.

Image
Last edited by tailgater on Sat Jun 30, 2018 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#12 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:24 am

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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#13 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:00 am

Not just land interaction, UL conditions will be going downhill starting early next week as the stacked heat ridge takes over the eastern US with ULLs rotating around it across the GOM, as I previously mentioned.

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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#14 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:01 am

Getting hit pretty good with rain in land o lakes florida. 3 inches in the beaker
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#15 Postby Javlin » Sat Jun 30, 2018 12:49 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Getting hit pretty good with rain in land o lakes florida. 3 inches in the beaker

That's all I want rain have not seen anything good/significant in 2 weeks probably along the MSGC
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#16 Postby MGC » Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:04 pm

Weak spin on long range Tampa radar out over GOM. Lets see if it persists. Way up in the atmosphere though....MGC
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#17 Postby lrak » Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:43 pm

It appears the broad low over S. Georgia and N. Central Florida has tipped it's toes in the warm GOM via ocular analysis of course but some surface readings show this broad low. Any surf possibilities from the Pros? Would love a North swell in the summer...now it's chop and wash crummy stuff. Unpredictable....ugh
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#18 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:27 pm

lrak wrote:It appears the broad low over S. Georgia and N. Central Florida has tipped it's toes in the warm GOM via ocular analysis of course but some surface readings show this broad low. Any surf possibilities from the Pros? Would love a North swell in the summer...now it's chop and wash crummy stuff. Unpredictable....ugh


Not seeing any surfing weather for you with this disturbance as it's a mid/upper level feature and certainly will not be anything tropical in nature. Interesting that we've seen some of the "bluest water" along the Upper Texas Coast in many years. I can't recalled such an extended period where the Gulf along Galveston almost looks like S Padre Island... :wink:
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#19 Postby lrak » Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:11 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
lrak wrote:It appears the broad low over S. Georgia and N. Central Florida has tipped it's toes in the warm GOM via ocular analysis of course but some surface readings show this broad low. Any surf possibilities from the Pros? Would love a North swell in the summer...now it's chop and wash crummy stuff. Unpredictable....ugh


Not seeing any surfing weather for you with this disturbance as it's a mid/upper level feature and certainly will not be anything tropical in nature. Interesting that we've seen some of the "bluest water" along the Upper Texas Coast in many years. I can't recalled such an extended period where the Gulf along Galveston almost looks like S Padre Island... :wink:



Yes S. Padre we call it Costa Rica for Free....sometimes... 4 guys in a truck with 8 boards depending on the conditions...gas money...sleep in the truck at the park, it gets blue like the Pacific with swell to match sometimes....Hurricane Bill IRC correctly I saw guys towing in with Sea Doos...And I've been up and down the Pacific even made it to Hawaii on a bonus compliance crap. But I got to SURF Hawaii.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#20 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:31 am

You don't have to guess if there's anything at the surface. Obs indicate a broad, weak low south of the western FL Panhandle. Development chances very low, but it will be a rain producer as it moves west along the coast.

Image
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