Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

[MississippiWx]

There is a bit of spin at the mid levels south of Gulf Shores. Lets see what happens.....MGC

It’s at the surface for sure. Surface obs confirm this. However, it seems a bit elongated and still weak. I don’t buy the feedback process JB is talking about. Too much land interaction.

[Alyono]

This was supposed to be over land. Instead its over the water

[Aric Dunn]

There is a bit of spin at the mid levels south of Gulf Shores. Lets see what happens.....MGC

It’s at the surface for sure. Surface obs confirm this. However, it seems a bit elongated and still weak. I don’t buy the feedback process JB is talking about. Too much land interaction.

we regardless of what process is happening /might happen. the main point is that something is trying to take shape and it is doing it rather quickly.

chances are going up... especially if a defined circ is developing south with that low to mid level circ. .

[northjaxpro]

This disturbance most definitely looks much more robust and impressive compared to very earlier at 06Z. NHC/WPC still has 1015 mb surface Low south of Pensacola. Pressures at the moment are not dropping appreciably. However, that may change as it moves west. A shot that a TD could develop out of this, depending on upper level shear and land intetaction.

I say as well this system gets a mention from NHC later today or early this evening.

[NotSparta]

I'm seeing some westerlies to the south with easterlies to the north in this loop. The environment is enhancing spin

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=29&lon=-89&zoom=1&palette=ir1.pal&quality=100&width=1000&height=1000&type=Animation&numframes=50

[Clearcloudz]

Observations show weak surface low over northern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly toward the west-southwest.

[MississippiWx]

There is a bit of spin at the mid levels south of Gulf Shores. Lets see what happens.....MGC

It’s at the surface for sure. Surface obs confirm this. However, it seems a bit elongated and still weak. I don’t buy the feedback process JB is talking about. Too much land interaction.

we regardless of what process is happening /might happen. the main point is that something is trying to take shape and it is doing it rather quickly.

chances are going up... especially if a defined circ is developing south with that low to mid level circ. .

It will have to evolve a good deal more to the south. This is on a collision course with Louisiana for now. If nothing changes, it will be inland tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

It’s at the surface for sure. Surface obs confirm this. However, it seems a bit elongated and still weak. I don’t buy the feedback process JB is talking about. Too much land interaction.

we regardless of what process is happening /might happen. the main point is that something is trying to take shape and it is doing it rather quickly.

chances are going up... especially if a defined circ is developing south with that low to mid level circ. .

It will have to evolve a good deal more to the south. This is on a collision course with Louisiana for now. If nothing changes, it will be inland tomorrow.

Assuming it went straight west. and something develops under that mid level than it would graze the coast .. then open waters as it heads to Houston area.

given the slight NE wind shear it could "evolve" more south as well.. overall it has drastically improved and continues too. if convection keeps building like it has then its only a short matter of time before a well defined surface circ consolidates.

[Clearcloudz]

we regardless of what process is happening /might happen. the main point is that something is trying to take shape and it is doing it rather quickly.

chances are going up... especially if a defined circ is developing south with that low to mid level circ. .

It will have to evolve a good deal more to the south. This is on a collision course with Louisiana for now. If nothing changes, it will be inland tomorrow.

Assuming it went straight west. and something develops under that mid level than it would graze the coast .. then open waters as it heads to Houston area.

given the slight NE wind shear it could "evolve" more south as well.. overall it has drastically improved and continues too. if convection keeps building like it has then its only a short matter of time before a well defined surface circ consolidates.

Edouard in 2008 did something similar. But it developed farther south which allowed it to remain over water longer.

[Alyono]

someone needs to educate TWC that this is a SURFACE low, not an upper low

[NDG]

I think the well defined vorticity on radar and satellite is not quite at the surface, at least not yet. Surface reports indicate just a broad circulation with surface pressures still quite high and have not fallen much in the past 24 hrs.

[Siker]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1013832847080284161

[Aric Dunn]

This is not acting like your everyday run of the mil mid level vort. it may not be well defined at the surface but this very likely extends into the low levels.

deep convection building in the last frame a buckling to the south. wont be much longer..

[Siker]

You can see in this GEFS image how some members have a low staying right along the coastline all the way to Texas. Hard to tell how many show this scenario:

[Aric Dunn]

another loop..

very interesting indeed...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the north-central Gulf of Mexico across the western Florida
panhandle is associated with a broad area of low pressure and
associated surface trough. Close proximity to land should prevent
significant development of this system before it moves westward and
inland over southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system is forecast to produce locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
couple of days. Additional information on this system can be found
in products issued by your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmmm only gives it a 10% chance......maybe the NHC is looking at another disturbance? IDK these days.

[Siker]

Southward trend is evident on the GEFS:

[Clearcloudz]

Hmmmmmmm only gives it a 10% chance......maybe the NHC is looking at another disturbance? IDK these days.

I would've expected it to be higher as well. No model support possibly thats the reason for the 10 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmmmmmm only gives it a 10% chance......maybe the NHC is looking at another disturbance? IDK these days.

I would've expected it to be higher as well. No model support possibly thats the reason for the 10 percent.

well a 10 percent chance up where they put it so close to the coast. from that position, it would be inland.

from where it actually looks like its coming together the chances are higher since it could stay along the coast over slightly over water.