Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

[Javlin]

I can,t see the EC/GFS both being wrong on a 24hr forcast.If that happens both models need some work.Look at the radar out of Mobile can see a circulation S of Mobile now.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

the circ that everyone is mentioning appears to be only in the low to mid levels. surface obs point farther south.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

[SoupBone]

Update from local Met Jeff Lindner:

An area of low pressure has formed overnight south of the Pensacola/Mobile area over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is confirmed by both coastal observation sites, coastal radars, and offshore buoys/oil platforms indicating a broad counter clockwise wind field has formed. Land based radar show numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature mainly offshore of the NE Gulf coast.

The National Hurricane Center on its most recent tropical weather outlook gives this feature a 10% chance of additional development before it moves inland over SE LA tonight into Tuesday.

This feature will continue to move westward and arrive into SE TX late Tuesday into Wednesday although that might be a bit fast given the current satellite and radar trends. Expect our currently very dry air mass to become rapidly saturated early on Wednesday with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the region between Houston and Lake Charles. PWS surge to near 2.4 inches on Wednesday which will support a heavy rainfall threat.

Current rainfall amounts are expected to average 1-2 inches over the region with isolated much higher amounts. There is still some uncertainty as to where the greatest rainfall amounts may occur, although there has been some indication of the region between Houston and Lake Charles could see some of the heavier rainfall.

Note: Such weak “tropical lows” can become very effective rainfall producers, so it will be important to monitor the forecast over the next 36-48 hours for any changes.

A wet pattern will remain in place with an upper level high to our north resulting in easterly upper level flow over SE TX for the next several days post Wednesday. Tropical waves within this flow will result in good coverage of daily thunderstorms late this week into the weekend.

Yeah, between Houston and Lake Charles doesn't really need or want anymore rain, not after their most recent deluge.

[SoupBone]

Not sure what's going on, it does seem as though something is trying to consolidate to the SW.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

Convection now weakening around the weak low center. Fairly significant NE shear overhead, too. No development. You can clearly see a weak swirl rotating rapidly NW on the sat loop below (use the slider at the bottom of the image).

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

So the main low level feature is the rotation just south of the AL/FL border? I was thinking the center was trying to consolidate under that convective blob to the SW..

Do we have a closeup of this type of imagery with SAL included? SAL is headed toward the Greater Houston Area, and the rest of the GoM. Just curious to see its location, relative to this system.

[Aric Dunn]

Also need to watch that meso scale cluster entering into the gulf of the LA Coast. it is starting to rotate.

[Weather150]

Don't expect anything to develop out of this, nothing much to see here, It will be inland tomorrow.

[drezee]

Coin flip on whether it can travel WSW over the next 24 hours. It has a chance to track along the trough axis. Agreed that W is the prevailing flow.

57, I should have bet a coke on this one double or nothing...

[LSU2001]

I am not expecting much tropical development out of this due to proximity to land, however, heavy rains and possible flooding is something to watch closely. It does not take a tremedous amount of rain to cause serious flooding concerns in coastal La.
Tim

[Stormcenter]

If we are still tracking the same center of this low then it sure doesn't seem to be in any hurry.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

[stormhunter7]

Beautiful visible today on the broad low. No clear COC IMO, just broad now and very close to LA coast.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-New_Orleans-truecolor-48-0-25-1&checked=map&colorbars=

[pcbjr]

Nothing but a July rainstorm ...

[Aric Dunn]

THere is nothing east of LA. east winds taking over in that region. next possible area would be that convection off to the south. and definitely watch that mesoscale feature.

[lrak]

Curious to why all the convection is on the West side of the broad low instead of the East side?

[MGC]

Shear has really picked up this afternoon over the north GOM. Looks to me that the low will skirt the LA coast. Still a small possibility of development. Shear might relax once the thunderstorms over land die off.....MGC

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the north-central Gulf of Mexico across the western Florida
panhandle is associated with a broad and weak area of low pressure.
Interaction with land, along with proximity to dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere, should prevent tropical cyclone
formation while the disturbance moves westward and inland over
southeastern Louisiana tonight through Tuesday. However, locally
heavy rainfall along portions of the northern Gulf Coast will be
possible during the next couple of days. Additional information on
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[jasons2k]

Shear city for now...we will see what happens overnight but a near 0% lemon sounds about right.

[lrak]

I don't know but the last visible satellite loop looks like a low is due east from the tip of LA and the radar is starting to fill in with rain in the same area?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... B&loop=yes

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes

Also just noticed the rain rate is increasing out there.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

looks like whatever is out there at the surface is still elongated off the mouth of the Mississippi river.

[wxman57]

The weak low is moving inland into SE LA this morning. Center is north of the mouth of the MS, as can be seen below. Not much convection. Development chances 0.01% or less.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like SAL Tooks over lol.. the circ though is still east of the LA barely moving.