Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#101 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:09 am

Also a couple vorts rotating around .. Those milky white clouds are signs of dry air/SAL though
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#102 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:33 am

wxman57 wrote:The weak low is moving inland into SE LA this morning. Center is north of the mouth of the MS, as can be seen below. Not much convection. Development chances 0.01% or less.



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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#103 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:34 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like SAL Tooks over lol.. the circ though is still east of the LA barely moving.


I asked the SAL question regarding this system, yesterday. I was curious if it would be able to disrupt it enough since SAL is pretty potent right now, all the way to SE Texas.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#104 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:55 pm

Looks like our low has slowed or put on the brakes and gotten a little better organized this morning and early afternoon.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#105 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:00 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Looks like our low has slowed or put on the brakes and gotten a little better organized this morning and early afternoon.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=


3 distinct vorts. one near NO, the other east of LA and the other along the southern coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#106 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:40 pm

So which one will win? I'd put my money on the one close to N.O. IMO

Aric Dunn wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Looks like our low has slowed or put on the brakes and gotten a little better organized this morning and early afternoon.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=


3 distinct vorts. one near NO, the other east of LA and the other along the southern coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#107 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:43 pm

Stormcenter wrote:So which one will win? I'd put my money on the one close to N.O. IMO

Aric Dunn wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Looks like our low has slowed or put on the brakes and gotten a little better organized this morning and early afternoon.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=


3 distinct vorts. one near NO, the other east of LA and the other along the southern coast.


well typically the one with more convection that builds with it. right now it is the one along the coast. but we shall see. there shear and other factors. chances have gone down since yesterday. still not zero lol
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#108 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:56 pm

Not sure about 3 distinct vorts, but the "surface" low is still south of NO near Grand Isle or there abouts, which is where I was placing it this morning, so I have to agree it has slowed down. Not sure I like the thought of that if it indeed has slowed it's westward movement.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#109 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:09 pm

This is Jeff Lindner's take on it:

Heavy rainfall will be possible this evening through Wednesday.

Weak surface low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico yesterday has moved inland over SE Louisiana this morning in association with a 500mb inverted trough moving westward along the central US Gulf coast. This feature will continue to move westward and arrive into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Air mass is starting to moisten from the east this morning and expect this trend to continue today as moisture over the central and eastern Gulf coast states moves westward. PWS will rise to near 2.0 inches by late this afternoon and continue to increase to near 2.4 inches by Wednesday morning. Surface circulation will arrive into SE TX early Wednesday morning helping to concentrate showers and thunderstorms.

Expect a band of strong thunderstorms to develop over SW Louisiana later today and rotate WSW/SW toward SE TX this evening. Meso models show this band reaching the I-45 corridor this evening. This band will be moving into a very warm air mass with temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s and might support an isolated damaging wind threat along any leading outflow boundaries.

Surface low and 500mb trough axis will be overhead late tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop near the center of the surface low late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Some models are indicating the focus of this activity will be around Galveston Bay and then spreading WNW and inland over SE TX early Wednesday morning. Air mass will become saturated by this time, so expect very heavy rainfall. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible with this activity.

Overall storm totals will average 1-3 inches over the region with the focus being around Galveston Bay. Isolated totals of 4-6 inches are certainly possible under any areas of cell training or sustained banding. Grounds have had a chance to dry out since the mid June rains and flash flood guidance is fairly high over the region…so think most areas will be able to handle the rainfall although some street flooding will be possible in the more urban areas. With that said these sort of “tropical lows” can produce very heavy rainfall near their center of circulation during the overnight hours and tonight/early Wednesday the circulation center will be somewhere between Houston and Lake Charles.

Extended:

Wet pattern remains in place through the weekend as the area remains in easterly upper level flow and tropical waves will approach and cross the region every 1-2 days enhancing rainfall. Sub-tropical high pressure will build over the western US and looks to remain far enough NW/W of the region to keep rain chances going for the next several days.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#110 Postby MGC » Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:47 pm

It has gotten quite breezy since the low has passed to my south. Off and on sunshine. I got a little over 2 inches of rain out of it.....MGC
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#111 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:47 pm

look at TPW. the main area of vorticity seems to still be lingering around the far southern portion of LA just drifting.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#112 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:02 pm

pretty intense tornado cell just moved into the gulf. not sure if there was a confirmed touchdown on land.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#113 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:14 pm

The radar makes it look like the area of low pressure is moving WSW and banding is starting to occur. Plus this thing is getting Huge!
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#114 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:30 pm

lrak wrote:The radar makes it look like the area of low pressure is moving WSW and banding is starting to occur. Plus this thing is getting Huge!


Not a lot of room. But a whole lot of vorticity offshore now.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#115 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:35 pm

Definitely looks like it’s getting that organized look... on radar though...
lrak wrote:The radar makes it look like the area of low pressure is moving WSW and banding is starting to occur. Plus this thing is getting Huge!
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#116 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:59 pm

Environment right.. now if this had more time over water.. very fun afternoon evening of watching these meso sort of take shape offshore.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#117 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Environment right.. now if this had more time over water.. very fun afternoon evening of watching these meso sort of take shape offshore.


Especially with the next day off! :flag:
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#118 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:42 pm

The LLC is definitely offshore now.. due south of Lake Charles/Cameron and drifting SW based on radar.. I thought it was supposed to stay inland
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#119 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:50 pm

Nederlander wrote:The LLC is definitely offshore now.. due south of Lake Charles/Cameron and drifting SW based on radar.. I thought it was supposed to stay inland


Awesome if you're seeing what I'm seeing then I stay up a little longer. Also it's right at the bend of TX & LA. Maybe?

Look at the beginning of a possible band to the south of the radar.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... H&loop=yes
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over North-Central Gulf

#120 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:44 am

lrak wrote:
Nederlander wrote:The LLC is definitely offshore now.. due south of Lake Charles/Cameron and drifting SW based on radar.. I thought it was supposed to stay inland


Awesome if you're seeing what I'm seeing then I stay up a little longer. Also it's right at the bend of TX & LA. Maybe?

Look at the beginning of a possible band to the south of the radar.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... H&loop=yes


yeppers.. looks interesting.

overall the models have been way way to fast with this.
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