Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#61 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:43 pm

Last edited by ForexTidbits on Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#62 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:47 pm

To clarify,he is not now in NHC so can post more bullish wording messages like this one.

@ToddKimberlain
Low pressure in the northern Gulf just south of the western Florida Panhandle looks awfully suspicious. Could a tropical depression be forming? #flwx #alwx #mswx #tropics


 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1013832847080284161


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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#63 Postby Siker » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:49 pm

ForexTidbits wrote:Higher-latitude systems like the one in the Gulf tend to flourish in inactive hurricane seasons. Sometimes a zone w/ enhanced % of genesis stretching from the Gulf into the west Atlantic where the shear is lower-than-average & waters anomalously warm.


You should really copy the link to tweets and embed them rather than copy the text and trim off the hashtags. Makes it look like you're trying to pass info off as your own.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1013835007314538496


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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#64 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:53 pm

Ins't the Louisiana delta like maybe 2 or 3 feet above sea level and mostly marsh waters? Would that really impact this system as it travels West?
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#65 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:54 pm

lrak wrote:Ins't the Louisiana delta like maybe 2 or 3 feet above sea level and mostly marsh waters? Would that really impact this system as it travels West?


yeah won't have all too much of an effect on if it rides the coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#66 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
lrak wrote:Ins't the Louisiana delta like maybe 2 or 3 feet above sea level and mostly marsh waters? Would that really impact this system as it travels West?


yeah won't have all too much of an effect on if it rides the coast.


thanks Aric Dunn I suspected that might be the case.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#67 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:05 pm

Models in good agreement that it will be moving inland into SE LA around sunrise tomorrow (close to New Orleans). Development chances remain low, though there is an LLC in surface obs (1015mb). Lower image is the 12Z EC (blue) and 12Z GFS (red) with black EC wind barbs valid 15Z tomorrow. Both models initialized the low very well.

Image

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#68 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:07 pm

Siker wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:Higher-latitude systems like the one in the Gulf tend to flourish in inactive hurricane seasons. Sometimes a zone w/ enhanced % of genesis stretching from the Gulf into the west Atlantic where the shear is lower-than-average & waters anomalously warm.


You should really copy the link to tweets and embed them rather than copy the text and trim off the hashtags. Makes it look like you're trying to pass info off as your own.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1013835007314538496



In 2008 we had Edouard skim along the northern Gulf Coast in July or August. So this isn’t necessarily true always.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#69 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:18 pm

EC & GFS keep the low well inland tomorrow. Here's a plot of EC (blue) and GFS (red) pressure in 0.5mb increments along with the EC's total accumulated precip in 1 inch increments valid through 03Z Thursday (10pm Wed). Not a lot of rain, in general. 1-3 inches most areas.

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#70 Postby jasons » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:23 pm

Update from local Met Jeff Lindner:

An area of low pressure has formed overnight south of the Pensacola/Mobile area over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is confirmed by both coastal observation sites, coastal radars, and offshore buoys/oil platforms indicating a broad counter clockwise wind field has formed. Land based radar show numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature mainly offshore of the NE Gulf coast.

The National Hurricane Center on its most recent tropical weather outlook gives this feature a 10% chance of additional development before it moves inland over SE LA tonight into Tuesday.

This feature will continue to move westward and arrive into SE TX late Tuesday into Wednesday although that might be a bit fast given the current satellite and radar trends. Expect our currently very dry air mass to become rapidly saturated early on Wednesday with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the region between Houston and Lake Charles. PWS surge to near 2.4 inches on Wednesday which will support a heavy rainfall threat.

Current rainfall amounts are expected to average 1-2 inches over the region with isolated much higher amounts. There is still some uncertainty as to where the greatest rainfall amounts may occur, although there has been some indication of the region between Houston and Lake Charles could see some of the heavier rainfall.

Note: Such weak “tropical lows” can become very effective rainfall producers, so it will be important to monitor the forecast over the next 36-48 hours for any changes.

A wet pattern will remain in place with an upper level high to our north resulting in easterly upper level flow over SE TX for the next several days post Wednesday. Tropical waves within this flow will result in good coverage of daily thunderstorms late this week into the weekend.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#71 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:EC & GFS keep the low well inland tomorrow. Here's a plot of EC (blue) and GFS (red) pressure in 0.5mb increments along with the EC's total accumulated precip in 1 inch increments valid through 03Z Thursday (10pm Wed). Not a lot of rain, in general. 1-3 inches most areas.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECandGFS.JPG


Yep. Move this 100 miles further south and we are looking at a tropical storm developing. Too much land.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#72 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:34 pm

Not much wind on/near Pensacola Beach. We’ve had a couple nice showers rotate by today but it looks like most of the weather is offshore.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#73 Postby Siker » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:40 pm

Still perplexed by the difference between the GFS and its ensembles. Could be the lower resolution of the ensembles making them portray the system as more cohesive than it actually is, but nonetheless ~10 members keeping the low mostly over water until Texas is nothing to scoff at.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#74 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:45 pm

Siker wrote:Still perplexed by the difference between the GFS and its ensembles. Could be the lower resolution of the ensembles making them portray the system as more cohesive than it actually is, but nonetheless ~10 members keeping the low mostly over water until Texas is nothing to scoff at.



given the trends. something skirting the coast is a good possibility.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#75 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:51 pm

Convection now weakening around the weak low center. Fairly significant NE shear overhead, too. No development. You can clearly see a weak swirl rotating rapidly NW on the sat loop below (use the slider at the bottom of the image).

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#76 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:56 pm

Looks like the "center" is due south of the AL/FL border.....not moving too quickly more like drifting. IMO
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#77 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Convection now weakening around the weak low center. Fairly significant NE shear overhead, too. No development. You can clearly see a weak swirl rotating rapidly NW on the sat loop below (use the slider at the bottom of the image).

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=


So the main low level feature is the rotation just south of the AL/FL border? I was thinking the center was trying to consolidate under that convective blob to the SW..
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#78 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:18 pm

Looking NE toward Milton, FL from Gulf BreeE to Pcola bridge. Was some reds on radar

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#79 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:31 pm

classic afternoon convective collapse. should see an increase again as we head into the evening.
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Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#80 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:33 pm

Not sure what's going on, it does seem as though something is trying to consolidate to the SW.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

Nederlander wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Convection now weakening around the weak low center. Fairly significant NE shear overhead, too. No development. You can clearly see a weak swirl rotating rapidly NW on the sat loop below (use the slider at the bottom of the image).

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=


So the main low level feature is the rotation just south of the AL/FL border? I was thinking the center was trying to consolidate under that convective blob to the SW..
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