Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: INVEST 95L is up
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- CyclonicFury
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Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: INVEST 95L is up
The most vigorous tropical wave of the year so far has exited the coast of Africa. The 12z GFS and CMC models, as well as some EPS members, spin this up into a closed low or perhaps even a weak tropical depression. I don't think development is likely, but it's interesting how this system has some slignt model support in the short range.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
The north / south extent of this wave would be impressive in September, let alone early July. Saved GIF:
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
I remember last season around this same time seeing the GFS spin up these mini-TC’s in the Tropical Atlantic which never materialized, and with the current setup this season compared to last makes it less believable.
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- NotSparta
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
TheStormExpert wrote:I remember last season around this same time seeing the GFS spin up these mini-TC’s in the Tropical Atlantic which never materialized, and with the current setup this season compared to last makes it less believable.
FWIW, the euro and EPS have it too
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- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
12Z ECMWF showing a bit stronger vortex at day 5 approaching Lesser Antilles:
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
12z EPS at a 70% probability of a TD and a 30% probability of a TS based on the charts from Weathermodels.com. The TD probability decreased slightly from 00z, but the TS probability increased.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
Per tracks since 1851, the July 1-10 period is the first period with any TS on record with genesis in the 50W-Lesser Antilles corridor of the MDR. Neither May nor June had even just one. July 1-10, alone, had a rather notable 8 meaning an average of about one every 20 years, which is high enough to tell me to not completely go to sleep on this even if still highly unlikely. In other words, this is not a situation that climo would outrightly oppose even realizing the odds are low.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
Nothing at 8 PM TWO:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
GFS dropped this at 00z. ICON and CMC still have it, and UKMET picked up. Looks like they all kill it when it passes ~11N into colder waters.
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- ouragans
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
Still no mention in the latest TWO
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
ouragans wrote:Still no mention in the latest TWO
It has basically no model support at this point, so I'm not surprised.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands
The Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are shut down until further notice.
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- cycloneye
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Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands
If you start a thread about an area of disturbed weather, you MUST take on the responsibility of keeping the thread title current and representative with respect to location, intensity, etc.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118093&p=2583352#p2583352
Changed the location of wave from SE to SW of Cabo Verde Islands.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118093&p=2583352#p2583352
Changed the location of wave from SE to SW of Cabo Verde Islands.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands
Clear low level spin to it this morning. Looks like the easterly surge to its north associated with a SAL outbreak is beginning to tilt the wave axis, enhancing vorticity in combination with monsoonal westerlies to the south.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands
12z GFS is a little bit stronger.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands
It begins to fade after hour 66.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands
This thing will really struggle if it breaks ~11N before 50W. SST's are sub-26C north / east of there per Levi's site. Of course, once it hits ~55W it'll be hitting the TUTT anyway. Not a bright future for this disturbance, but in the meantime a weak TS would not surprise me if it stays around ~10N for awhile.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands
Will bring good rains to the Leeward Islands,VI and Puerto Rico next Sunday thru Monday.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands
Actually looks pretty good this morning. Wouldn't rule out a weak TD here.
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