Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: INVEST 95L is up

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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:12 am

I can see NHC mention wave on 2 PM TWO.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#22 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:18 am

Well I'm curious if the UKMET picks it up, but the 12z text output looks bugged (the only storm it shows is Fabio and only the 0 hour point rather than a forecast).
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:32 am

CyclonicFury,maybe I was a little rude about the editing of title of thread so I apologize.Remember as the wave moves west to edit title. :)
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#24 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:32 am

cycloneye wrote:CyclonicFury,maybe I was a little rude about the editing of title of thread so I apologize.Remember as the wave moves west to edit title. :)

Ok, I will make sure I keep thread titles updated in the future - never really realized I could do that myself.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#25 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:36 am

cycloneye wrote:CyclonicFury,maybe I was a little rude about the editing of title of thread so I apologize.Remember as the wave moves west to edit title. :)


I tried to edit the Gulf disturbance thread title yesterday but couldn't figure out how. I realized earlier that you just have to go to the first post and edit the "Subject" field when you go to edit the post (I assumed that would only change the subject of the first post rather than the thread name). Might be worth mentioning in the sticky.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:45 am

Siker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:CyclonicFury,maybe I was a little rude about the editing of title of thread so I apologize.Remember as the wave moves west to edit title. :)


I tried to edit the Gulf disturbance thread title yesterday but couldn't figure out how. I realized earlier that you just have to go to the first post and edit the "Subject" field when you go to edit the post (I assumed that would only change the subject of the first post rather than the thread name). Might be worth mentioning in the sticky.


I edited that one to add North-Central. Our friend AJC was who made that sticky thread so he can consider that.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#27 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:38 pm

Not surprised they didn't mention this in the TWO considering it's in the middle of nowhere, but really model support for this is just as good as the low by Bermuda. 12z GEFS is in pretty good agreement on this becoming a TC within 36 hours.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#28 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:50 pm

12z GEFS like it

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#29 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:24 pm

Yeah 12z GFS got a bit more bullish with this. May see a TD or weak TS at most over the next several days. If the 18z GFS keeps this at 18z I think it’s worth a mention in the 8pm TWO.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#30 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:53 pm

GFS and Euro ensembles indicate about a 70% chance of that wave developing. Looks impressive on satellite. It's near the leading edge of another big SAL outbreak, which acts as a convergence zone. Storms occasionally form west and south of a SAL outbreak, though they're usually small in size. It's hard for them to survive as they eventually entrain dry air from the SAL. Something to keep an eye on.

Here it is - Leading edge of new SAL outbreak indicated by yellow dashed line. Note the enhanced convection south of and west of the SAL.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#31 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:54 pm

If this does form, would it be a sign that the MDR is a little more favorable than previously thought, or would it just be some random low rider that was in the right place at the right time?
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#32 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:11 pm

weathaguyry wrote:If this does form, would it be a sign that the MDR is a little more favorable than previously thought, or would it just be some random low rider that was in the right place at the right time?


This wouldn't say much as per the season. 2014 had one of these that nearly became a named storm
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#33 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:15 pm

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#34 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:34 pm

Looks nice at sunset. Could develop into a short lived TD around Thursday but conditions will quickly become unfavorable as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Will be interesting to see if it takes advantage of the diurnal maximum and fires off convection tomorrow morning.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#35 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:39 pm

Neat little area that is certainly a surprise considering the recent massive amounts of SAL and cool SST anomalies. Have a feeling this will eventually die out once it fully detaches from the ITCZ. Could be a weak depression or 40mph TS before then, however.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#36 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:41 pm

Nice southerly inflow wrapping in from the east as the sun sets:

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#37 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:06 pm

weathaguyry wrote:If this does form, would it be a sign that the MDR is a little more favorable than previously thought, or would it just be some random low rider that was in the right place at the right time?


It's not uncommon for such systems to briefly develop an LLC then dissipate, which is what I think will happen here. A strong SAL enhances such convection, but ingestion of dry SAL air usually leads to its demise.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#38 Postby Weather150 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:13 pm

Image
18z ICON.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (NOW INVEST 95L)

#39 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:40 pm

Now listed as "Invest 95L." The numbering must be an error since the next invest number should be 92L.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:52 pm

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