Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: INVEST 95L is up

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Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: INVEST 95L is up

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:04 pm

The most vigorous tropical wave of the year so far has exited the coast of Africa. The 12z GFS and CMC models, as well as some EPS members, spin this up into a closed low or perhaps even a weak tropical depression. I don't think development is likely, but it's interesting how this system has some slignt model support in the short range.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#2 Postby Siker » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:20 pm

The north / south extent of this wave would be impressive in September, let alone early July. Saved GIF:

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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:54 pm

I remember last season around this same time seeing the GFS spin up these mini-TC’s in the Tropical Atlantic which never materialized, and with the current setup this season compared to last makes it less believable.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#4 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:28 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I remember last season around this same time seeing the GFS spin up these mini-TC’s in the Tropical Atlantic which never materialized, and with the current setup this season compared to last makes it less believable.


FWIW, the euro and EPS have it too
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#5 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:28 pm

12Z ECMWF showing a bit stronger vortex at day 5 approaching Lesser Antilles:

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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:11 pm

12z EPS at a 70% probability of a TD and a 30% probability of a TS based on the charts from Weathermodels.com. The TD probability decreased slightly from 00z, but the TS probability increased.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#7 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:39 pm

Per tracks since 1851, the July 1-10 period is the first period with any TS on record with genesis in the 50W-Lesser Antilles corridor of the MDR. Neither May nor June had even just one. July 1-10, alone, had a rather notable 8 meaning an average of about one every 20 years, which is high enough to tell me to not completely go to sleep on this even if still highly unlikely. In other words, this is not a situation that climo would outrightly oppose even realizing the odds are low.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#8 Postby Weather150 » Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:10 pm

Image
18z GFS with it.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:53 pm

Nothing at 8 PM TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#10 Postby Siker » Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:18 pm

GFS dropped this at 00z. ICON and CMC still have it, and UKMET picked up. Looks like they all kill it when it passes ~11N into colder waters.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#11 Postby ouragans » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:10 pm

Still no mention in the latest TWO
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#12 Postby Weather150 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:24 pm

ouragans wrote:Still no mention in the latest TWO

It has basically no model support at this point, so I'm not surprised.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:02 am

The Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are shut down until further notice.
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Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:50 am

If you start a thread about an area of disturbed weather, you MUST take on the responsibility of keeping the thread title current and representative with respect to location, intensity, etc.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118093&p=2583352#p2583352

Changed the location of wave from SE to SW of Cabo Verde Islands.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#15 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:22 am

Clear low level spin to it this morning. Looks like the easterly surge to its north associated with a SAL outbreak is beginning to tilt the wave axis, enhancing vorticity in combination with monsoonal westerlies to the south.

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:46 am

12z GFS is a little bit stronger.

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:56 am

It begins to fade after hour 66.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#18 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:04 am

This thing will really struggle if it breaks ~11N before 50W. SST's are sub-26C north / east of there per Levi's site. Of course, once it hits ~55W it'll be hitting the TUTT anyway. Not a bright future for this disturbance, but in the meantime a weak TS would not surprise me if it stays around ~10N for awhile.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:08 am

Will bring good rains to the Leeward Islands,VI and Puerto Rico next Sunday thru Monday.

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#20 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:09 am

Actually looks pretty good this morning. Wouldn't rule out a weak TD here.
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