Area to watch SW of Bermuda: Is INVEST 96L

[cycloneye]

A westward-moving, broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east of Florida is producing minimal shower activity.
Little or no development of this low is expected for the next few
days due to unfavorable upper-level winds and dry mid-level air.
However, another non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
form about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United States
by the end of the week. That system could gradually acquire some
tropical characteristics over the weekend while it moves slowly
northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

A westward-moving, broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east of Florida is producing minimal shower activity.
Little or no development of this low is expected for the next few
days due to unfavorable upper-level winds and dry mid-level air.
However, another non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
form about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United States
by the end of the week. That system could gradually acquire some
tropical characteristics over the weekend while it moves slowly
northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

That second area is very highly likely to never directly affect the US east coast regardless of what it does but the first area will impact the SE US Tue-Thu with enhanced convective activity. In fact, July 4th is looking like a wet one directly from this especially for much of N FL, S GA, E SC, and E NC as it moves in off the ocean. It isn’t often to see something like this.

[CyclonicFury]

00z UKMET develops this:
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.8N 70.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 06.07.2018 29.0N 70.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 07.07.2018 30.2N 72.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.07.2018 31.4N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.07.2018 33.3N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.07.2018 36.4N 67.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.07.2018 38.9N 61.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Siker]

00z UKMET develops this:
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.8N 70.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 06.07.2018 29.0N 70.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 07.07.2018 30.2N 72.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.07.2018 31.4N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.07.2018 33.3N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.07.2018 36.4N 67.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.07.2018 38.9N 61.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.8N 70.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.07.2018 84 29.0N 70.8W 1016 23
0000UTC 07.07.2018 96 30.2N 72.0W 1013 23
1200UTC 07.07.2018 108 31.4N 71.9W 1012 27
0000UTC 08.07.2018 120 33.3N 70.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 08.07.2018 132 36.4N 67.2W 1007 38
0000UTC 09.07.2018 144 38.9N 61.7W 1002 47

[CyclonicFury]

If something were to develop, I would expect it to have an unusually high minimum central pressure at first due to the high MSLP environment. That's reflected in the UKMET forecast which starts it as a 1016 mb TD.

[CyclonicFury]

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form about midway
between Bermuda and the southeastern United States by the end of the
week. That system could gradually acquire some tropical
characteristics over the weekend while it moves slowly northward and
then northeastward away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

It has a window that closes on Sunday.

A non-tropical low pressure system associated with an upper-level
trough is expected to form southwest of Bermuda in a couple of
days. The system could gradually acquire tropical characteristics
later this week while it moves northwestward to northward. The
disturbance is expected to interact with a front on Sunday and
development is unlikely after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level winds could become somewhat
conducive for development by late this week when the disturbance is
forecast to be southwest of Bermuda. The system is forecast to move
generally northward over the weekened and begin interacting with a
frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

[floridasun78]

their upper low to west need move too west for it have chance upper low expect be over florida on wed

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles southeast
of Bermuda has changed little today. However, environmental
conditions are gradually forecast to become more conducive for the
development of a low pressure system by late this week when the
disturbance is expected to be south or southwest of Bermuda. The
system is forecast to move generally northward over the weekend and
begin interacting with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit
any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[GlennOBX]

So, lemme get this straight. The storm area to the east of this one is a 20/20 in the 8pm TWO, and it has an invest #. This one is a 20/50 and it doesn't?

I'm confused.

[CyclonicFury]

So, lemme get this straight. The storm area to the east of this one is a 20/20 in the 8pm TWO, and it has an invest #. This one is a 20/50 and it doesn't?

I'm confused.

You are correct.

[Kingarabian]

So, lemme get this straight. The storm area to the east of this one is a 20/20 in the 8pm TWO, and it has an invest #. This one is a 20/50 and it doesn't?

I'm confused.

Childs play compared to the EPAC. EPAC can have a system reach 60/80 on the TWO and not see an invest.

[NotSparta]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040502
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and showers remains a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda. Although this disturbance is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions could become more conducive
for a low pressure system to form by late this week in the area
southwest of Bermuda. The system is then forecast to move generally
northward over the weekend and begin interacting with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kazmit]

Visible on the Bermuda radar. Link is here:
http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=

[ouragans]

And still no invest...

[wxman57]

60% on this? No model support at all. 60% is about 55% too high.

[AnnularCane]

They seem a little casual about declaring invests this year! I guess it's not confined to the EPAC. Although the MDR disturbance got an invest declaration...