CyclonicFury wrote:MississippiWx wrote:HurricaneRyan wrote:After today, I don't think it says much. Beryl reformed in the subtropical atlantic, and Chris developed there too.
Exactly. Dust, below average SST anomalies (along with unfavorable spatial anomalies), higher than normal MSLP, and shear are all unfavorable for development in the MDR. The subtropics are the place to look. Of course, systems staying weak in the MDR increase the risk of them making it farther west and finding more favorable conditions closer to land. It’s not always a good thing when the MDR is unfavorable.
IMO, dust in July is a fairly meaningless indicator for saying conditions will be unfavorable during the season. In fact, there has been a correlation between July SAL outbreaks and active seasons. There's almost always going to be SAL in July, active or quiet season.
I believe this was what happened last season. Never a good indication whether you have significant SAL outbreaks or not. Still a hurricane in the MDR in July is impressive regardless of if it was a so called "micro-cane" or not.