Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

[TheStormExpert]

After today, I don't think it says much. Beryl reformed in the subtropical atlantic, and Chris developed there too.

Exactly. Dust, below average SST anomalies (along with unfavorable spatial anomalies), higher than normal MSLP, and shear are all unfavorable for development in the MDR. The subtropics are the place to look. Of course, systems staying weak in the MDR increase the risk of them making it farther west and finding more favorable conditions closer to land. It’s not always a good thing when the MDR is unfavorable.

IMO, dust in July is a fairly meaningless indicator for saying conditions will be unfavorable during the season. In fact, there has been a correlation between July SAL outbreaks and active seasons. There's almost always going to be SAL in July, active or quiet season.

I believe this was what happened last season. Never a good indication whether you have significant SAL outbreaks or not. Still a hurricane in the MDR in July is impressive regardless of if it was a so called "micro-cane" or not.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1016685633299996672



 https://twitter.com/NotSparta_wx/status/1017236285357002752



 https://twitter.com/NotSparta_wx/status/1017246427309838336



WAM = West African Monsoon

This factor probably had much to do with the formation of Beryl and could well indicate a near-to-slightly-above-average season (contrary to my previous expectations for a well-below-average year). Additionally, indicators suggest that El Niño, if any, will not emerge in time to affect the upcoming seasonal peak in ASO. The strong WAM, relaxed trade regime, reduced MSLPs, and weaker +PMM/+ENSO signal all suggest continued warming of the MDR to above-average SSTs by the peak of the 2018 season. We could see particularly dramatic warming toward the end of July and into early August, owing to the strong SAL suppressing convection and increasing insolation over the MDR. Virtually all seasons with two or more pre-August hurricanes ended up as above-average years, some of them hyperactive. While I don't anticipate a season like last year's, activity and ACE on par with 2016 seems well within reach — in other words, a potentially slightly-above-average year. If I were to revise my forecast now, I would call for fourteen to sixteen named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and three to four majors, with an ACE index of ~130 to 140.

[SFLcane]

Can’t rule it out. But one ignores the high trade and shear in the Caribbean at your own risk for a seasonal forecast. An active WAM is your best hope for activity