Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

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Do you think the formation of TD TWO / Beryl change your thinking for rest of season?

Poll ended at Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:27 am

Yes,rest of season will be active
17
32%
No,rest of season will be average to below average
36
68%
 
Total votes: 53

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Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:27 am

I would like to have our pro mets chim on this question but of course all the peeps too.Doing this poll to see how we think about this.Poll will be open until July 31 at 11:27 AM EDT.
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Re: Does the formation of TD TWO / Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#2 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:32 am

Eh, as a TD, it's a bit of a question mark. In 2014, TD 2 also formed in the MDR in July, and the season was below average.

As a TS, it might be a sign that things are not as unfavorable as expected, since all seasons with a named storm in the MDR before August were at least within average.

It would mean a lot more if there was another TC in the MDR before July ends.
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Re: Does the formation of TD TWO / Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#3 Postby Siker » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:06 am

NotSparta wrote:Eh, as a TD, it's a bit of a question mark. In 2014, TD 2 also formed in the MDR in July, and the season was below average.

As a TS, it might be a sign that things are not as unfavorable as expected, since all seasons with a named storm in the MDR before August were at least within average.

It would mean a lot more if there was another TC in the MDR before July ends.


While true for most seasons (from what I remember discussing last year), not true for all. 2013 is the only one I remember that was below average (well below in fact), and that season had both Chantal and Dorian in the MDR in July.
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Re: Does the formation of TD TWO / Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#4 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:38 pm

Siker wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Eh, as a TD, it's a bit of a question mark. In 2014, TD 2 also formed in the MDR in July, and the season was below average.

As a TS, it might be a sign that things are not as unfavorable as expected, since all seasons with a named storm in the MDR before August were at least within average.

It would mean a lot more if there was another TC in the MDR before July ends.


While true for most seasons (from what I remember discussing last year), not true for all. 2013 is the only one I remember that was below average (well below in fact), and that season had both Chantal and Dorian in the MDR in July.


Oops, forgot to mention it was based on named storm count. 2013 was average or above in that sense, but nowhere else
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:20 pm

No, 2013 also had Chantal and Dorian form in this region and look at the outcome of the season. Though this season will likely be inactive due to the combination of cooler sst’s, wind shear, and the oncoming El Niño.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#6 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:13 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:No, 2013 also had Chantal and Dorian form in this region and look at the outcome of the season. Though this season will likely be inactive due to the combination of cooler sst’s, wind shear, and the oncoming El Niño.


2013 (similarly to 2005 in the other direction) is too extreme to use in any sort of comparison, especially given the unique issues that were going on with the thermohaline circulation--global activity was below normal much of the year.

I think Beryl's formation could indicate, if nothing else, that the waves this year are stronger than we've been giving them credit for and that the MDR could be a bit more active than many think--even with an intense Nino, 2015 still managed to have five storms (plus a depression) form out there because the waves were strong enough.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#7 Postby Kazmit » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:16 am

While I don't think it's much of an indicator of how active the season will be, I do think it shows how the tropical Atlantic shouldn't be underestimated this year.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#8 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:48 am

I don't think it changes the picture much more than if nothing were to have form in July. July isn't a great bellwether period. What Beryl does show is there is yet much to learn about the upper conditions of the atmosphere, enigmas happen.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#9 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:29 pm

Beryl is probably nothing more than a fluke in an otherwise unfavorable year. The size of it should be an indication that the overall environment is not very conducive for tropical systems. 96L is a prototype for systems we should expect in a year like this.

As we all know, one bad hurricane is all it takes to make it a bad year.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#10 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:33 pm

If we get another named storm of the east coast this weekend i'd venture to say things might be a tad busier then previously thought. Still a ways to go till the meat of the season. We shall see
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl change how rest of season will be?

#11 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:01 pm

Busier than expected, I say average to maybe slightly above average season. MDR waters are warming rather quickly now, if 96L develops we will already have 3 named storms and at least 1 cane from Beryl. I think the MDR being below average in SST's has caused people to assume this season will be quiet especially in the MDR region but I don't buy it. Only time will tell!
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:27 am

There may be some indications that Beryl was not a fluke in terms of not being an guide to more or less activity but there may be other factors that may contribute to more activity than what the expert forecasters were expecting. Go to the 2018 indicators thread to find more about this.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#13 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:37 am

Not necessarily but I think it does show that perhaps too much stock was put into the cooler than average MDR when seasonal forecasts were made. Even if it is a little cooler than usual it is still warm enough to support cyclogenesis given other parameters are favorable and it can warm up quicky as is being indicated here https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drglob.png
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#14 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:50 am

I certainly believe that Beryl may well be a strong indicator. Firstly in terms of MDR activity and secondly as a potential precursor of a season that will be more active then recently reduced by professional forecasters. I don't know if this has been discussed in detail within any of the forums but if any of our astute historical statisticians (Steve, Larry, Andrew?...lol) care to chime in, I'd be interested in knowing which and how many seasons included:
A) Any July date having two simultaneous occurring Tropical Storms at the same time.
B) Two or more Hurricanes prior to July 15
C) Three or more named storms during the month of July (in the event that another storm form this month)
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#15 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:27 pm

chaser1 wrote:I certainly believe that Beryl may well be a strong indicator. Firstly in terms of MDR activity and secondly as a potential precursor of a season that will be more active then recently reduced by professional forecasters. I don't know if this has been discussed in detail within any of the forums but if any of our astute historical statisticians (Steve, Larry, Andrew?...lol) care to chime in, I'd be interested in knowing which and how many seasons included:
A) Any July date having two simultaneous occurring Tropical Storms at the same time.
B) Two or more Hurricanes prior to July 15
C) Three or more named storms during the month of July (in the event that another storm form this month)


I don't think the last one is indicative of much. 1997 and 2008 both had three named storms and both had very different outcomes
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#16 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:03 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:
chaser1 wrote:I certainly believe that Beryl may well be a strong indicator. Firstly in terms of MDR activity and secondly as a potential precursor of a season that will be more active then recently reduced by professional forecasters. I don't know if this has been discussed in detail within any of the forums but if any of our astute historical statisticians (Steve, Larry, Andrew?...lol) care to chime in, I'd be interested in knowing which and how many seasons included:
A) Any July date having two simultaneous occurring Tropical Storms at the same time.
B) Two or more Hurricanes prior to July 15
C) Three or more named storms during the month of July (in the event that another storm form this month)


I don't think the last one is indicative of much. 1997 and 2008 both had three named storms and both had very different outcomes


fwiw, 1997 had a super Niño
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#17 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:25 pm

I voted no. Beryl is not an indication of a more active season - specifically Cape Verde MDR. We need to see one more in the next few weeks out there (something more than a microcane) for me to think that area may be active. Still thinking more close-in development this year like Chris than deep Cape Verde development. Doesn’t mean we won’t get a significant Cape Verde system during the peak period. Went about average on my numbers.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#18 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:58 pm

After today, I don't think it says much. Beryl reformed in the subtropical atlantic, and Chris developed there too.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#19 Postby MississippiWx » Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:12 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:After today, I don't think it says much. Beryl reformed in the subtropical atlantic, and Chris developed there too.


Exactly. Dust, below average SST anomalies (along with unfavorable spatial anomalies), higher than normal MSLP, and shear are all unfavorable for development in the MDR. The subtropics are the place to look. Of course, systems staying weak in the MDR increase the risk of them making it farther west and finding more favorable conditions closer to land. It’s not always a good thing when the MDR is unfavorable.
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Re: Does the formation of Beryl in MDR on early July change how rest of season will be?

#20 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:21 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
HurricaneRyan wrote:After today, I don't think it says much. Beryl reformed in the subtropical atlantic, and Chris developed there too.


Exactly. Dust, below average SST anomalies (along with unfavorable spatial anomalies), higher than normal MSLP, and shear are all unfavorable for development in the MDR. The subtropics are the place to look. Of course, systems staying weak in the MDR increase the risk of them making it farther west and finding more favorable conditions closer to land. It’s not always a good thing when the MDR is unfavorable.

IMO, dust in July is a fairly meaningless indicator for saying conditions will be unfavorable during the season. In fact, there has been a correlation between July SAL outbreaks and active seasons. There's almost always going to be SAL in July, active or quiet season.
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