My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

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Hurricaneman
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#21 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:31 am

August 12 2018

There is an area of low pressure that could take on tropical characteristics later this week and here are its chances

Now. 5%
12hrs. 20%
24hrs. 30%
48hrs. 50%
72hrs. 80%
96hrs. STS Ernesto 50mph
120hrs TS Ernesto 50mph

Elsewhere no development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days there are some hints at possible development after day 10 and it seems as though the GFS and Euro and some of their ensembles are showing some type of development and the last 5 days of the month could yield more activity as a CCKW comes into the Atlantic as well as the MJO so we’ll see
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#22 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:34 pm

August 14 2018

The low pressure 500 miles south of New Foundland seems to be trying to take on some tropical characteristics and may become a subtropical or tropical storm within 48 hrs before heading off into cooler waters and here are its chances

Now. 30%
12hrs. 50%
24hrs. 80%
36hrs. 90%
48hrs. STS Ernesto 50mph
72hrs. Post tropical
96hrs. Post tropical
120hrs. Dissipated

Elsewhere no development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days the 18zGFS tries to form another low in the subtropics around day 8 and keeps it around in some for for the rest of the model run but based on its size and formation it could be convective feedback but also there are several waves one that comes off in 11 days and tracks into the central Caribbean by the end of the run and I would think if you went beyond 16 days on the model it would develop in the western Caribbean which may need to be watched in future runs and another wave comes off around day 14 and looks like it wants to develop but with these 2 waves whether they develop or not is a signal for a pattern change to a more active time which also coincides with the mjo and CCKW coming in late August early September
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#23 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:17 am

August 17 2018

Tropical storm Ernesto is heading for the British Isles within the next day and should become extra tropical before then

Elsewhere no development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days there could be another area to form in the subtropical regions in about 6 days that may have to be watched depending on the ridge or even if this feature ends up near the Bahamas heading north or near Bermuda doing the same also there is a tropical wave at day 9 on both the GFS and Euro that has a low so that may have to be watched in future runs

Looking at the model runs for the 9 day wave it is stronger on the Euro than the GFS but it also could be an awakening of the MDR in time for the peak of the season
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#24 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:50 pm

August 22 2017

There is an area inside Africa that may have to be monitored for development and here are its chances

Now. 0%
12hrs. 0%
24 hrs. 0%
36hrs. 0%
48 hrs. 2%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 30%

Beyond 5 days is where I feel this will develop as it gets beyond 50w and threatens the islands as a Tropical Storm and moves towards the Bahamas as a hurricane but from there is anyone’s guess but the Euro and GFS do possibly put Florida and GOM on the lookout so we finally have something to watch

Next update. August 23 at 1100pm
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#25 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:10 am

August 28 2018

there are several areas to talk about right now

1. The wave near 60w: I think this is a real sleeper and could become a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days and here are its chances

Now. 0%
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
36hrs. 0%
48hrs. 5%
72hrs. 50%
96hrs. TS Gordon 50mph
120hrs. Hurricane Gordon 85mph landfall Boca Raton

2. Wave at 35w: while this does have decent vorticity I don’t see this doing much so I see no chance for development

3. Wave on African coast: This has some real potential too but I see this getting picked up by the trough and here are its chances

Now. 5%
12hrs. 10%
24hrs. 30%
36hrs. 70%
48hrs. TS Florence 40mph
72hrs. TS Florence 70mph
96hrs. Hurricane Florence 100mph
120hrs. Major hurricane Florence 115mph

Beyond 5 days the parade of systems I see continuing including a wave that comes off Africa in 6 days that I see becoming A tropical system as well as one after 10 days

So looking at things we’re about to heat up in the Atlantic and it’s about to go crazy if the models are right so hang on tight it could be a bumpy ride and am hoping that all storms or hurricanes go the way of the fish

Next update August 29
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#26 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:42 pm

Special forecast for the system in the southwest Caribbean

Now it is a disorganized bunch of convection with broad turning but do expect this to come together to be a named tropical cyclone by day 5 and here are its chances

Now. 10%
12hrs. 15%
24hrs. 20%
36hrs. 25%
48hrs. 40%
72hrs. 80%
96hrs. Td 14. 35mph
120hrs Ts Michael 45mph

Beyond 5 days is when I feel this has a good chance to become a hurricane after the day 6 shear which knocks this back to a depression in or just east of the Yucatan channel but after its north of the shear it may intensify quite a bit

As for landfall area or intensity my best guess is a 100mph hurricane somewhere between Pensacola and Cape Hatteras leaning towards the left side of things like somewhere north of Tampa but as always that could change

One should not take this forecast at face value, for official forecast look at NWS, NOAA and NHC for information
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#27 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:41 pm

Special forecast

There is an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean but development may wait a few more days due to competing vortices one to the east south of Jamaica and one to the west about 300miles

For the track of this system it’s still up in the air with the GFS FV3 and the Euro showing the eastern vorticity developing into a tropical cyclone while all the other models are showing the western vorticity becoming a tropical cyclone so we will have to wait a few more days to be sure on track

As for intensity I do believe this does become a tropical cyclone sometime early Friday morning and as for a peak I do believe this could become a pretty potent hurricane and am going to say this could become a major hurricane in either the GOM or off the east coast

As for the chances of development here they are

Now. 10%
12hrs. 20%
24hrs. 30%
48hrs. 70%
72hrs. Td 14 35mph
96hrs. Ts Michael 45mph
120hrs Ts Michael 60mph

Beyond 5 days is where I believe this is going to become a major hurricane off the east coast heading west to landfall near Melbourne as a major hurricane and somewhere on the northern GOM as a hurricane of lower intensity but as always forecast this far out are subject to large errors and may need to be corrected

Don’t take this forecast at face value, for official info go to the NOAA, NWS and/or NHC websites
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