My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

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Hurricaneman
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My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:42 pm

July 14 2018

GOM: no development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: there a a few strong waves one near Africa and one in the central Atlantic with some broad spin but no development the next 5 days

East coast: no development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: Beryl is back from the dead as a weak Subtropical storm and probably will weaken from here on out so here is what I forecast for Beryl

Now 40mph
12hrs. 40mph
24hrs. 35mph(post tropical)
36hrs. 30mph(post tropical)
48hrs dissipated
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:44 pm

Please move to talking tropics, forgot I was in active storms
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#3 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:33 pm

July 15. 2018

No development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:36 pm

July 16 2018

GOM: might be an area to watch Friday or Saturday according to models and here are the chances for development and will be covered more in the east coast section

Now. 0%
12 hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
36hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 0%
96hrs. 2%
120hrs.5%

East coast: everything said in the GOM section but could become a tropical depression at day four or five and ride the east coast to New England so it is worth watching and it’s chance of development are in the GOM section

Subtropical Atlantic: no development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: a few high amplitude waves are transversing the Atlantic but no development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:56 pm

July 17 2018

GOM: the models seem to be still showing something forming south of the Panhandle of Florida this weekend and sending it northeast but here are it’s chances

Now. 0%
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
36hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 2%
96hrs. 5%
120hrs.10%

East coast: see GOM

Elsewhere no development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:45 pm

July 20 2018

No tropical development the next 5 days

Sorry for no update the last couple of days, wasn’t home but am now
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:05 am

July 24 2018

No development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days no development
Edit: the 0zGFS has an interesting area in the Bahamas starting around 324 hrs as the CCKW moves into the Atlantic, but as stated above as this might be a model phantom no development beyond 5 days either
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:19 am

July 28 2018

No development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days there may be an attempt at a tropical or subtropical area of interest after a trough split just after day 5 and the last few model runs track it anywhere between the Bahamas to east of Bermuda so that may be something to watch for as some hurricane landfalls have happened from such trough splits in the past such as Joaquin in 2015 or Bob in 1991 or even Carol in 1954 or Belle in 1976 but am not expecting this at this time and am not expecting more than a low end storm

Also am expecting the start of a pattern change after the 10th of August as the GFS seems to be showing lower pressures off the coast of Africa and lowering of the SAL which might be the start to look to the MDR but if anything there at least will be some trackable convective waves to track

Haven’t posted in this thread for several days due to inactivity
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:32 am

July 29 2018

No development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days it looks like some subtropical area of low pressure may try to form somewhere east of Bermuda via the models but as of now not expecting much from it

The 0zGFS shows a tropical low of some kind near Texas at 15 days which is probably phantom but around August 15th is when models start showing a pattern change to a more active Atlantic so until then I don’t expect much to any named storms
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:40 pm

July 31 2018

Atlantic overview

There is a pretty decent tropical wave that just left Africa but the water temps at too cool ahead of it for much if any development but could bring squally weather to the CV islands

There has been a lot of thunderstorm activity in the GOM with a front but shear is too strong and no development is expected

No real chance of development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days the 18zGFS showed something in the BOC after day 13 and has been shown the past few days off and on so maybe a pattern change coming after the 15th as the CCKW comes into The Atlantic but that could easily change

So in closing the first half of August is most likely going to be quiet while things start to wake up starting after the 15th and that’s when I believe we need to watch the tropics right on schedule
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:57 pm

August 4 2018

There is a non tropical low in the subtropical Atlantic producing some convection that is being sheared at the moment but conditions are expected to become more favorable after Monday and may transition into a subtropical or tropical storm sometime during the week and here are its chances

Now: 5%
12hrs. 10%
24hrs. 10%
36hrs. 20%
48hrs. 30%
72hrs. 80%
96hrs. TS Debby. 45mph
120hrs TS Debby. 50mph

Elsewhere no development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days the models seem to be showing a wave coming off Africa between August 12 to 15 and may need to be watched beyond that to see if it’s there or if it may be an artifact of the model but if the models are right the thing to watch is if it maintains a vorticity in the cooler waters in the eastern Atlantic because it could be trouble after 50W but as of right now it’s too early to tell what this system will do or if it will exist
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:05 pm

August 5 2018

There is a non tropical low that looks like it’s getting its act together some and may become a tropical storm and here are its chances

Now. 40%
12hrs. 50%
24hrs. 75%
48hrs. 90%
72hrs. TS Debby 50mph
96hrs. Post tropical
120hrs dissipated

Elsewhere no tropical development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days there seems to be a strong wave that may come off Africa day 8 but will likely not develop as cooler than normal waters in the MDR will probably keep this system at bay and the GFS has a wave around day 13 or so that does develop around day 15 and these 2 waves may be part of a pattern change around the 15th which may signal a change towards more activity

But as always go to the NWS or NHC sites for official info
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:18 pm

August 6 2018

There is still a low pressure in the subtropical Atlantic but don’t see this becoming a tropical or subtropical system as it heads out to sea

Theres a high amplitude wave at about 30w that looks like it wants to try to develop on the models but stays a wave due to dry subsiding air and most likely won’t develop but I now believe that the pattern is switching to more active so who knows this might have a better chance north of the islands in 7 days

Beyond 5 days the Euro still seems to have a strong tropical wave near the CV islands but because latitude it may wait until farther west for a chance to develop also the GFS has a strong ITCZ which seems to have random lows on it but looking at things we might start getting lots of systems after the 20th when the moisture returns to the Atlantic in time for peak season
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#14 Postby amawea » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:23 pm

Keep on with your daily forecast Hurricaneman, I enjoy reading your perspective.
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#15 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:47 pm

That cold core low north of Cuba looks like it is trying to work its way down to the surface. Doesn't seem to be of much interest to the models so maybe its just expected to fill in?
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:52 pm

August 7 2018

Subtropical storm Debby is moving away into the North Atlantic and into cooler waters the next 24 hrs so any transition to tropical is probably not going to happen and will completely dissipate at 48 hrs

Elsewhere no development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days there will be a wave that leaves Africa in 7 days that may have to be watched for development farther west as both the Euro and GFS have a it still a decent wave near 40w in 10 days and the GFS has been trending stronger with this wave so this may be the first of many waves that may develop which would follow the idea that around the 15th the tropics begin to wake up but we have to make sure this feature is there in 7 days before going all in
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:10 pm

August 8 2018

Tropical storm Debby as of 11pm has been declared extra tropical and should dissipate the next 24 to 48 hrs

Elsewhere no development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days just after day 5 it seems as though maybe another Debby like system may be in the cards and possibly in the same location so that has to be watched next week but of possibly more interest is a wave moving off Africa in 5 to 6 days that may develop around 50w and may have to be monitored as it seem that the Euro want to try to develop this feature while the GFS as of the 18z run seems to dissipate it or keep it weak but both models are trending stronger each run so we’ll see after the weekend if this system happens or not
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#18 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:00 am

Hurricaneman wrote:August 5 2018

There is a non tropical low that looks like it’s getting its act together some and may become a tropical storm and here are its chances

Now. 40%
12hrs. 50%
24hrs. 75%
48hrs. 90%
72hrs. TS Debby 50mph
96hrs. Post tropical
120hrs dissipated


Wow you nailed Debby's strength and timing right on with that forecast.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:52 pm

August 9 2018

No development the next 5 days

Beyond 5 days there may be a system where Debby just was around day 7 but should be out to sea and of more interest is a wave coming off Africa in 5 days or so that may need to be watched around 50w so while it’s in the long range I’ll keep an eye on it in case it does develop but we’ll know more by Wednesday
Or so
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Re: My daily forecasts for the tropical atlantic 2018

#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:46 pm

August 10 2018

There is a wave near 30w that could develop the next few days and here are its chances

Now. 0%
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 10%
36hrs. 25%
48hrs. 40%
72hrs. 75%
96hrs. Td 5 35mph
120hrs. Ts Ernesto 50mph

Elsewhere there may be a extra tropical system around 3 days that aquires tropical characteristics and here are its chances

Now 0%
12hrs. 0%
24 hrs. 0%
36hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 30%
96hrs. 70%
120hrs. STS Florence 50mph

Another tropical wave moves off Africa in 3 to 4 days and may have to be watched but as of now I don’t see development within 5 days with this but beyond 5 days may be another question

Beyond 5 days the GFS seems to have a strong wave with broad low pressure move off Africa around 14 days out but it could be a false alarm so we will have to wait until next week to see if it’s still there
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