2018 TCRs

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galaxy401
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#21 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:58 pm

Now that hurricane season is wrapping up in both basins, this will allow the NHC to focus more on the reports now.

I edited my first post to include the new surge of reports.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#22 Postby NotoSans » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:41 am

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Re: 2018 TCRs

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:26 pm

galaxy401, added Ileana to the list at first post.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#24 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:06 am

TD 19-E is published.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#25 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:29 pm

I think we'll get a glut of Atlantic fish storm reports soon. Although I can't see Florence and Michael coming out before February or so.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#26 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:35 pm

BTW I want to bring up the discussion regarding Hurricane Fabio. Back when that storm dissipated, many people speculated that it may have reached major hurricane status. The NHC did not upgrade Fabio in the report though they did noted the low confidence in forecasting it's peak intensity.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#27 Postby NotoSans » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:26 am

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Re: 2018 TCRs

#28 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:17 pm

A new batch of reports were released today with Chris and TD 11 from the Atlantic along with John in the EPAC.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#29 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:46 pm

No real changes with Chris. I would have gone with a 95 kt peak intensity, as Recon was running higher than Dvorak when it was in it (before peaking), but the NHC stuck with the blend of the data (ADT = 100 kt, subjective = 75-80 kt).
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#30 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:26 pm

With the ongoing Government shutdown, will there be a potential delay in the NHC completing these reports? I know on the website it says it will stay updated but I'm unsure if they're only limited to issuing warnings or not.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#31 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:22 am

Unfortunately, with the shutdown I suspect all NOAA operations not directly related to protecting life and property (forecasting and warning for active storms/events) will be significantly slowed if not suspended entirely.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:50 pm

SconnieCane wrote:Unfortunately, with the shutdown I suspect all NOAA operations not directly related to protecting life and property (forecasting and warning for active storms/events) will be significantly slowed if not suspended entirely.


I'd think they are all on hold right now.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#33 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:42 pm

It's evident now that the government shutdown has prevented the NHC from completing the reports. There might be a temporary reopening of the government shortly for a few weeks. This could allow them to resume until another shutdown possibly happens (politics sure are fun... :roll: )

Has there ever been any reports that weren't released until the following hurricane season? Depending on the delay, we could see that.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#34 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:56 pm

galaxy401 wrote:It's evident now that the government shutdown has prevented the NHC from completing the reports. There might be a temporary reopening of the government shortly for a few weeks. This could allow them to resume until another shutdown possibly happens (politics sure are fun... :roll: )

Has there ever been any reports that weren't released until the following hurricane season? Depending on the delay, we could see that.


Not with the NHC that I know of, but certainly with the CPHC.

From what I heard from Eric Blake, they were still writing reports but they were missing a lot of data that could not be obtained from other agencies. We should get some of the quicker reports out soon which only require satellite or limited data (like Debby, Ernesto and Joyce). Florence and Michael I would guess won't be out until at least late March or April.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#35 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:24 pm

Hurricane Rosa report is up.Peak intensity was 130 kts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202018_Rosa.pdf
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#36 Postby Hammy » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hurricane Rosa report is up.Peak intensity was 130 kts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202018_Rosa.pdf


Wasn't this a 5 operationally? Not sure the last time I saw a post-analysis downgrade.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#37 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:31 pm

Hammy wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Hurricane Rosa report is up.Peak intensity was 130 kts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202018_Rosa.pdf


Wasn't this a 5 operationally? Not sure the last time I saw a post-analysis downgrade.

Nope, peak intensity was actually brought up 5 kt from 125 kt operationally.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#38 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:35 pm

Hurricane Helene is up. Note that the report was finished well over a month ago but was likely delayed to be published due to the shutdown. There might be a couple other reports with the same date range.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:41 pm

No upgrade to major status, but notice there is enormous spread in the Dvorak numbers - they range from 80 to 110 kt at the time of peak intensity. 95 kt is a blend of all of those.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#40 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:13 pm

Xavier has been released.
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