2018 TCRs

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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#81 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:51 pm

Category 5 winds would have been limited to the beachfront in Mexico Beach, which caught the eyewall at maximum exposure. No station close to the shore survived all the way through the storm to accurately measure the peak gust either. There were no wind reports of any kind in Mexico Beach - in fact, the first such report in the RFQ was in Donaldsonville, GA, where 100 kt gusts were measured about 4 hours after landfall.

One other tidbit: Michael is the first category 5 storm anywhere in the Atlantic basin outside the western Caribbean after September 22. The other late September, October or November cat 5's all took place in the western Caribbean (1924, 1932, Janet, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew)
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#82 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Category 5 winds would have been limited to the beachfront in Mexico Beach, which caught the eyewall at maximum exposure. No station close to the shore survived all the way through the storm to accurately measure the peak gust either. There were no wind reports of any kind in Mexico Beach - in fact, the first such report in the RFQ was in Donaldsonville, GA, where 100 kt gusts were measured about 4 hours after landfall.

One other tidbit: Michael is the first category 5 storm anywhere in the Atlantic basin outside the western Caribbean after September 22. The other late September, October or November cat 5's all took place in the western Caribbean (1924, 1932, Janet, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew)


The Donaldsonville area looked way different after Michael. I drove through there during the holidays and couldn't believe how the pine forests looked like someone karate chopped them all uniformly at the same height and laid them over the same way and this was that far inland. I hope they are doing something with all of that wood and can replant the trees!
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#83 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:24 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Category 5 winds would have been limited to the beachfront in Mexico Beach, which caught the eyewall at maximum exposure. No station close to the shore survived all the way through the storm to accurately measure the peak gust either. There were no wind reports of any kind in Mexico Beach - in fact, the first such report in the RFQ was in Donaldsonville, GA, where 100 kt gusts were measured about 4 hours after landfall.

One other tidbit: Michael is the first category 5 storm anywhere in the Atlantic basin outside the western Caribbean after September 22. The other late September, October or November cat 5's all took place in the western Caribbean (1924, 1932, Janet, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew)


The Donaldsonville area looked way different after Michael. I drove through there during the holidays and couldn't believe how the pine forests looked like someone karate chopped them all uniformly at the same height and laid them over the same way and this was that far inland. I hope they are doing something with all of that wood and can replant the trees!


That is from what was likely a category 2 impact, so that should be a warning for those who underestimate lower-category hurricanes.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#84 Postby TorSkk » Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:33 am

Interesting how the Michael's report contains an error at Figure 12 (max intensity 135 kt)
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#85 Postby NDG » Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:57 am

Not surprised for its Cat 5 upgrade, I had never seen videos like this of hurricanes from the chasers in the continental US before during the past 20 years or so, only time when they would go to the western Pacific, as if they were inside an EF-3 tornado.



Link: https://youtu.be/A-HS6xNS6sI


Link: https://youtu.be/f3ofAJSqpLM
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#86 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:05 am

Another stat that I didn't see mentioned: 2018 is the only year ever recorded where the US and its territories were impacted by two Category 5 (or equivalent) cyclones: Michael and Yutu, both within the span of a few days.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#87 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:19 am

TorSkk wrote:Interesting how the Michael's report contains an error at Figure 12 (max intensity 135 kt)

That's actually not an error. That figure uses the standard 6 hour best track intervals, and the intensity for 18Z was indeed 135 kt, which was just after landfall

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Another stat that I didn't see mentioned: 2018 is the only year ever recorded where the US and its territories were impacted by two Category 5 (or equivalent) cyclones: Michael and Yutu, both within the span of a few days.

Also worth noting that this was the first year that the NAtl, EPac, CPac, and WPac all have had a category 5 the same year. In fact, every one of those basins had a category 5 develop and mature in the same month! Unsurprisingly, that month was indeed October.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#88 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:09 pm

In the last 8 years, 6 of them had the strongest storm of the year take place in October (Ophelia, Sandy, Gonzalo, Joaquin, Matthew, Michael). Is that a new trend?
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#89 Postby Chris90 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:43 am

I thought of another interesting little correlation last night.
In 1992, the pacific set a record for ACE and Andrew impacted Florida at Cat 5 intensity.
In 2018, the pacific broke the ACE record set in '92 and Michael impacted Florida at Cat 5 intensity to be the first Cat 5 landfall in the contiguous U.S. since Andrew.

If the Pacific is going for an ACE record, watch out Florida.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#90 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:42 am

Chris90 wrote:I thought of another interesting little correlation last night.
In 1992, the pacific set a record for ACE and Andrew impacted Florida at Cat 5 intensity.
In 2018, the pacific broke the ACE record set in '92 and Michael impacted Florida at Cat 5 intensity to be the first Cat 5 landfall in the contiguous U.S. since Andrew.

If the Pacific is going for an ACE record, watch out Florida.

Just imagine if Irma the year before hadn’t slammed into the northern Cuban Coast, that could’ve made for another chance at FL receiving a direct hit from a Cat.5.

Could this be all due to climate change or just our good luck we had from going for us from 2006-2015 has run out?
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#91 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:04 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Chris90 wrote:I thought of another interesting little correlation last night.
In 1992, the pacific set a record for ACE and Andrew impacted Florida at Cat 5 intensity.
In 2018, the pacific broke the ACE record set in '92 and Michael impacted Florida at Cat 5 intensity to be the first Cat 5 landfall in the contiguous U.S. since Andrew.

If the Pacific is going for an ACE record, watch out Florida.

Just imagine if Irma the year before hadn’t slammed into the northern Cuban Coast, that could’ve made for another chance at FL receiving a direct hit from a Cat.5.

Could this be all due to climate change or just our good luck we had from going for us from 2006-2015 has run out?

I’ll go with the latter
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#92 Postby NDG » Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:21 am

NHC's usual conservative intensity forecast clearly showed with Michael.

Image
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#93 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Category 5 winds would have been limited to the beachfront in Mexico Beach, which caught the eyewall at maximum exposure. No station close to the shore survived all the way through the storm to accurately measure the peak gust either. There were no wind reports of any kind in Mexico Beach - in fact, the first such report in the RFQ was in Donaldsonville, GA, where 100 kt gusts were measured about 4 hours after landfall.

One other tidbit: Michael is the first category 5 storm anywhere in the Atlantic basin outside the western Caribbean after September 22. The other late September, October or November cat 5's all took place in the western Caribbean (1924, 1932, Janet, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew)


Excellent post, CrazyC83! As you noted, the 100 kt (115 mph) wind gust in Donaldsville, Ga (some 80 mile trek over land) was the first wind observation recorded from the RMW in the RFQ. Not only was that taken 4 hours after landfall, and after pretty rapid weakening, but also at the height of only 3 meters AGL...less than a third of the standard elevation of 10 m.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#94 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:20 pm



In response to Rich Johnson's comment...I did "see" wind speeds reaching that intensity from the innermost part of the eastern eyewall and RMW; while located at the far western portion of Mexico Beach. I'm sure if he had witnessed it, himself, he'd be of a far different opinion.

Even so, the readings of wind gusts of at least 105 kt/120 mph for a full hours duration...in Beacon Hill, from outside the RMW of a tightly-wound central core, adds further credence to the extraordinary velocity of the wind gusts that battered MB. The same is true of the 121 kt/139 mph wind gusts measured at Tyndall AFB before the strongest winds arrived at that location; located W of the max wind within hurricane Michael.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#95 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:43 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Category 5 winds would have been limited to the beachfront in Mexico Beach, which caught the eyewall at maximum exposure. No station close to the shore survived all the way through the storm to accurately measure the peak gust either. There were no wind reports of any kind in Mexico Beach - in fact, the first such report in the RFQ was in Donaldsonville, GA, where 100 kt gusts were measured about 4 hours after landfall.

One other tidbit: Michael is the first category 5 storm anywhere in the Atlantic basin outside the western Caribbean after September 22. The other late September, October or November cat 5's all took place in the western Caribbean (1924, 1932, Janet, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew)


Excellent post, CrazyC83! As you noted, the 100 kt (115 mph) wind gust in Donaldsville, Ga (some 80 mile trek over land) was the first wind observation recorded from the RMW in the RFQ. Not only was that taken 4 hours after landfall, and after pretty rapid weakening, but also at the height of only 3 meters AGL...less than a third of the standard elevation of 10 m.


That would likely translate to a gust around 110 kt at standard elevation, which correlates well with a category 2 intensity at that location (sustained 85-90 kt). The I-10 corridor likely saw category 3 conditions in the right eyewall, while category 4 conditions were likely observed elsewhere in southeastern Bay County outside of the beachfront.

For HURDAT purposes of US impacts, Michael should go down as AFL5, IGA2, IAL1. Hurricane conditions likely clipped the extreme southeast corner of Alabama as well as the left eyewall moved over that spot.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up

#96 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:48 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:


In response to Rich Johnson's comment...I did "see" wind speeds reaching that intensity from the innermost part of the eastern eyewall and RMW; while located at the far western portion of Mexico Beach. I'm sure if he had witnessed it, himself, he'd be of a far different opinion.

Even so, the readings of wind gusts of at least 105 kt/120 mph for a full hours duration...in Beacon Hill, from outside the RMW of a tightly-wound central core, adds further credence to the extraordinary velocity of the wind gusts that battered MB. The same is true of the 121 kt/139 mph wind gusts measured at Tyndall AFB before the strongest winds arrived at that location; located W of the max wind within hurricane Michael.


Also the T2 tower measured a 5-min wind of 94 kt - which would be about 100 kt sustained - and it was outside the eyewall (SE of Mexico Beach).
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#97 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:35 pm

NDG wrote:NHC's usual conservative intensity forecast clearly showed with Michael.

https://i.imgur.com/orM3guI.gif

Still not as far off as the Patricia forecast.
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Re: 2018 TCRs

#98 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 03, 2019 3:00 pm

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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Florence report is up (Peak intensity 130 kts)

#99 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 03, 2019 3:26 pm

The peak intensity was upped to 130 kts.

Florence’s estimated peak intensity of 130 kt at 1800 UTC 11 September is based on peak
reconnaissance aircraft 700-mb flight-level winds of 143 kt and 141 kt, which equate to an intensity
of 127–129 kt at the surface.
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Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Florence report is up (Peak intensity 130 kts)

#100 Postby galaxy401 » Fri May 03, 2019 5:34 pm

Has there ever been a report released as late as May? Glad they're finally out.

Surprised at the large jump in the intensity. Wasn't it originally 120 kts?
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