East Atlantic Tropical Wave

[floridasun78]

that way look like have spin with it but i expect Africa duct and shear will do it as we seen other wave coming off Africa this season

[TheStormExpert]

Looks impressive, for now that is.

[floridasun78]

Looks impressive, for now that is.

if look loop you see have good spin to it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

[AJC3]

Hostile environment...models do nothing with it....this thread will be pretty short.

[NotSparta]

Not seeing too much spin, but it's doing nicely w/ keeping & firing convection. Will probably lose that convection pretty soon though

[AutoPenalti]

Not prime time for MDR systems to shine. Won’t last long I believe.

[Nimbus]

The CDO is quite impressive tonight, and the early morning visible imagery should prove interesting. Could develop enough to survive the dry air and shear so probably worth watching the model trends.

[NotSparta]

Did some analysis on the environment.

The wave has a decent moisture pocket, so the convection can persist. The dry air ahead doesn't appear to be moving much however, which means it could run into that dry air.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband08&lat=10&lon=-20&zoom=1&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&width=1000&height=1000&type=Animation&numframes=50


Assuming the wave keeps a westerly course, shear does not seem to be a problem until it nears the Caribbean.



There's a small patch of upper divergence, which is also supporting the convection



Assuming it does not move much to the north, SSTs are decent. To the north they become marginal



Still, I don't really expect this wave to really do much of anything right now

[chaser1]

Looks impressive, for now that is.

if look loop you see have good spin to it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

Good eye There's some good vorticity here. Good surface convergence from the south at the moment. It's only chance to survive though, is to stay small and stay south, at least for the time being.

[emeraldislenc]

Looks like some spin.

[BYG Jacob]

Beryl V2: Electric Boogaloo

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 10N between 25W and 32W.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: at the time this thread was started a little less than 24 hour ago, the small cluster of convection depicted in satellite imagery was located near 18W. However, the axis of the T-wave that was analyzed at the time was a full 5 degrees farther to the west, and its associated convection only extended back to 22W...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-18N
along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer
wind shear environment, however is being severely affected by a
Saharan Air Layer outbreak as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA
LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and middle level diffluence support
scattered showers S of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between
22W-30W.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Whatever perturbation there was embedded in the easterlies that emerged from the COA last night looks like it may have already dampened out into the ITCZ, which is precisely what the global model guidance was predicting to quickly occur about 24-36 hours after the wave came off. In any case, there is absolutely nothing on IR imagery east of 25W now. Since some of this disturbance's vorticity could be merging with the convectively active wave out ahead of it, rather than lock this thread, it will be kept open for the time being.

[AJC3]

Convection has pretty much degenerated into ITCZ mush now.