Why was Hugo so strong so far north

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HurricaneEnzo
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Why was Hugo so strong so far north

#1 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:41 pm

I know we are in the midst of hurricane season but it is a little slow at the moment so I wanted to discuss the memorable Hurricane Hugo. I have always been impressed by this storm and how it was able to landfall so far North and west at Cat 4 strength. It is not a common occurance and has only happened a few times in recorded history. It is more normal for storms to weaken or level out around high Cat 2/Low cat 3 in this area. The only storms I know of in the satellite era (correct me if I'm wrong) to attain Cat 4 status this far North and west are Hugo and briefly Diana in 1984 (didn't landfall at that strength).

So why was Hugo able to get this done? What was the setup? I'm not an expert but I have a couple of thoughts on why. It would appear from Satellite imagery as Hugo was approaching land it had dual outflow channels. Storms often intensify rapidly when this happens. It approached the CONUS from a more westerly direction instead of riding up the coast. I think this is important because in theory it would at least limit the possiblity of the storm ingesting dry air from the CONUS longer than a storm riding the coast.

Obviously it passed over the warm Gulf Stream. Was it unusually warm during this period of time?

Any other factors that contributed?
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Re: Why was Hugo so strong so far north

#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:20 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:I know we are in the midst of hurricane season but it is a little slow at the moment so I wanted to discuss the memorable Hurricane Hugo. I have always been impressed by this storm and how it was able to landfall so far North and west at Cat 4 strength. It is not a common occurance and has only happened a few times in recorded history. It is more normal for storms to weaken or level out around high Cat 2/Low cat 3 in this area. The only storms I know of in the satellite era (correct me if I'm wrong) to attain Cat 4 status this far North and west are Hugo and briefly Diana in 1984 (didn't landfall at that strength).

So why was Hugo able to get this done? What was the setup? I'm not an expert but I have a couple of thoughts on why. It would appear from Satellite imagery as Hugo was approaching land it had dual outflow channels. Storms often intensify rapidly when this happens. It approached the CONUS from a more westerly direction instead of riding up the coast. I think this is important because in theory it would at least limit the possiblity of the storm ingesting dry air from the CONUS longer than a storm riding the coast.

Obviously it passed over the warm Gulf Stream. Was it unusually warm during this period of time?

Any other factors that contributed?


I agree about the dual outflow channels, and that likely played a major role. A few other reasons involved:

* It likely had help from the upper level trough, acting to provide additional energy as it was moving northwest. In other storms (i.e. Michelle, Charley, Wilma near Florida, Paloma) that helped a lot. The shear was directional to the motion as well, so the real shear value was zero.

* I'd guess the SST's in the Gulf Stream were above normal, probably 29C or so, but I'm not sure exactly how much so.

The most comparable storm would have been Helene 1958. That had a pressure of 930 mb and analyzed winds of 130 kt just southeast of Myrtle Beach, but the core of the storm largely stayed just offshore (it passed near Cape Fear having weakened slightly).
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Re: Why was Hugo so strong so far north

#3 Postby beoumont » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:32 am

I recall a fairly large cut off low developing (cutting off, actually) over Georgia as Hugo passed Puerto Rico; which moved SW ward into the north central Gulf at 500 mb; which accounted for the steering changing from NNW back to the NW. I would guess there was a corresponding low at upper levels in the same area, likely the cause of a brisk outflow channel on Hugo's SW quadrant. There was also a mid-upper level progressive trough moving through the upper Midwest at the time of landfall; likely the source of outflow from the hurricane's northern quadrant as well.

So happens my avatar of the bending palms is a video frame taken on NE Puerto Rico during Hugo.
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Re: Why was Hugo so strong so far north

#4 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:00 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:I know we are in the midst of hurricane season but it is a little slow at the moment so I wanted to discuss the memorable Hurricane Hugo. I have always been impressed by this storm and how it was able to landfall so far North and west at Cat 4 strength. It is not a common occurance and has only happened a few times in recorded history. It is more normal for storms to weaken or level out around high Cat 2/Low cat 3 in this area. The only storms I know of in the satellite era (correct me if I'm wrong) to attain Cat 4 status this far North and west are Hugo and briefly Diana in 1984 (didn't landfall at that strength).

So why was Hugo able to get this done? What was the setup? I'm not an expert but I have a couple of thoughts on why. It would appear from Satellite imagery as Hugo was approaching land it had dual outflow channels. Storms often intensify rapidly when this happens. It approached the CONUS from a more westerly direction instead of riding up the coast. I think this is important because in theory it would at least limit the possiblity of the storm ingesting dry air from the CONUS longer than a storm riding the coast.

Obviously it passed over the warm Gulf Stream. Was it unusually warm during this period of time?

Any other factors that contributed?


I agree about the dual outflow channels, and that likely played a major role. A few other reasons involved:

* It likely had help from the upper level trough, acting to provide additional energy as it was moving northwest. In other storms (i.e. Michelle, Charley, Wilma near Florida, Paloma) that helped a lot. The shear was directional to the motion as well, so the real shear value was zero.

* I'd guess the SST's in the Gulf Stream were above normal, probably 29C or so, but I'm not sure exactly how much so.

The most comparable storm would have been Helene 1958. That had a pressure of 930 mb and analyzed winds of 130 kt just southeast of Myrtle Beach, but the core of the storm largely stayed just offshore (it passed near Cape Fear having weakened slightly).


Thanks for the info!!!!! I wasn't aware of Helene in 58. WOW lucky that core stayed mostly offshore.
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why was Hugo so strong so far north

#5 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:00 am

beoumont wrote:I recall a fairly large cut off low developing (cutting off, actually) over Georgia as Hugo passed Puerto Rico; which moved SW ward into the north central Gulf at 500 mb; which accounted for the steering changing from NNW back to the NW. I would guess there was a corresponding low at upper levels in the same area, likely the cause of a brisk outflow channel on Hugo's SW quadrant. There was also a mid-upper level progressive trough moving through the upper Midwest at the time of landfall; likely the source of outflow from the hurricane's northern quadrant as well.

So happens my avatar of the bending palms is a video frame taken on NE Puerto Rico during Hugo.


Thanks for your insight!
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Re: Why was Hugo so strong so far north

#6 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:50 am

I'll be interested to see, when the reanalysis project gets to the 1980s, if they bring Hugo's landfall strength up some.
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