Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20746
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)

#1 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:56 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves
slowly west over the next few days. By the middle of next week,
stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
4 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#2 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:11 am

And just this quick a TW flares up in the short term without model support from just a few days ago, it helps this particular TW that is closer to the 10th latitude & ITCZ away from the cooler SSTs to the north and away from the core of the SAL.
3 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20746
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#3 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:18 am

Saved image:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20746
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#4 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:24 am

ECMWF track:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#5 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:40 am

:uarrow: If it gains latitude like the Euro shows it will have no chance to do much after Monday. IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#6 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:01 am

No tropical wave near the highlighted area by the NHC, perhaps is the forecasted vorticity to develop out of the ITCZ and approaching TW near the C.V. Isalnds by the models.

Image
4 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 374
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#7 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:40 am

Any model support?
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3238
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#8 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:23 am

I see multiple spins on the trough axis. Which one can make a play?
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3876
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#9 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:40 am

Funny how the NHC removed Debby then on the next TWO indicates an area that would normally only be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion. Certainly an empty map in almost mid-August makes them worry about tweets similar to "Why do we need the NHC?"

As the others mentioned, it just appears to be an ITCZ disturbance. But looking to the north, there is a very large area of cool-weather cumulus and dust.

Actually, the disturbance to the west of the NHC area looks healthier, but that is also very low latitude.

P.S. As TWC mentioned this morning, the westerlies are very strong across the Caribbean at present.
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 742
Age: 21
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#10 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:51 am

Frank2 wrote:Funny how the NHC removed Debby then on the next TWO indicates an area that would normally only be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion. Certainly an empty map in almost mid-August makes them worry about tweets similar to "Why do we need the NHC?"

As the others mentioned, it just appears to be an ITCZ disturbance. But looking to the north, there is a very large area of cool-weather cumulus and dust.

Actually, the disturbance to the west of the NHC area looks healthier, but that is also very low latitude.

P.S. As TWC mentioned this morning, the westerlies are very strong across the Caribbean at present.


I suspect that literally no one would tweet “why do we need the NHC” after last season. Models slightly develop it, the NHC gave it a low chance, where is the issue here?
12 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#11 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:07 am

Pretty good ensemble support for at least a short lived weak system.

[b]
@MJVentrice
Following Following @MJVentrice
More
Possibility increasing for a short-lived MDR system in the coming week. Note the lack of shading over the western tropical Atlantic suggests that if this system does spin up, it will likely spin down fairly quickly. GEFS bulled up at 90%; ECMWF 60%; NHC 20%

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1027909382674243584


0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3238
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#12 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:09 am

0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1711
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#13 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:19 am

Am I wrong to say that I see two LLC’s?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1418
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#14 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:59 am

Shows that even with no model support for the basin at all 5 days ago doesn't mean something will try to form.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:03 pm

Don't think this will amount to much (though a quick spin-up is possible). However, it's a sign the active part of the season is getting close.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1431
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#16 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:20 pm

I've been looking at this the last few days, and kinda liked the way it looked even when it was devoid of convection.....low level turning to my eyes. Something to look at at least.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114732
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:44 pm

An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some
gradual development is possible after that time while the system
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20746
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#18 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:49 pm

:uarrow: Interesting that the latest outlook mentions conditions are favorable after a couple of days instead of becoming unfavorable.
3 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 374
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#19 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:08 pm

Found that interesting too!
0 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1461
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#20 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:37 pm

I didn't even notice that part! :P
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests