Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)

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TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#41 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:25 am

There is currently an enhanced Kelvin Wave traversing this region supporting the increase in convection.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#42 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:28 am

Fortunately, the strong +NAO pattern over the past several months has induced strong subtropical low-level ridging and enhanced trades over the MDR, which adds up to a feedback loop in which cooler SSTs via trades and SAL also induce upper-level convergence (sinking air) over the region, in turn bolstering PV (that is, TUTT) activity and adding westerly shear to the already-strong low-level easterlies. This makes the current situation over the tropical Atlantic extremely hostile even for robust waves that emerge from West Africa. The same holds true for the Caribbean, which is just as dry and sheared. This current wave is going to continue to struggle in these conditions, even as it heads westward into the Caribbean. Storms that manage to find a proverbial "sweet spot" will most likely be in the subtropics, and that location, barring blocking ridging, might be too far north for systems to affect the U.S. mainland.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1027998679255449600



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1028036895836499968



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537174324699136



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537171975880704



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537175344082944


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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#43 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:57 am

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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#44 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:03 pm

CMC a bit more bullish with stronger 850mb vorticity. Day 2 image below east of Lesser Antilles and day 5 just north of Puerto Rico:

Image
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#45 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:05 pm

Swirl in some decent CAPE and getting a good feed of ITCZ TPW.
Shear is not bad.
This may fire up in the next 24 hrs or so.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#46 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:04 pm

Respectable drop in surface pressure as the wave passed this buoy.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#47 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:26 pm

it getting time of year but this year shear been strong and sal for td ot ts form
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#48 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:38 pm

GCANE wrote:Respectable drop in surface pressure as the wave passed this buoy.


Image

Is this the system that begins our season? In the model thread, there's something behind this one on the GFS. This could be the precursor.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#49 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:18 pm

Nice looking wave with some broad rotation, saved loop before the sun goes down out there:

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#50 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:56 pm

Euro and GFS in the short term showing nothing but open waves. GFS does however show 2 systems forming at the end of the run.

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#51 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:26 pm

Given the vigorous convection with a favorable upper-level environment and the fact it is heading towards the Lesser Antilles, might be worth a mention by the NHC in its next outlook.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#52 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:50 pm

If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some spin
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#53 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:53 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some slight spin
Yes, there's certainly some rotation occurring. Not sure at what level, though.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#54 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:56 pm

abajan wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some slight spin
Yes, there's certainly some rotation occurring. Not sure at what level, though.

It may be mid-level considering it's still embedded in the ITCZ, but I would just have to wait till tomorrow.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#55 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:20 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some spin


Is the spin some distance from the deeper convection?
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#56 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:39 pm

Nimbus wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some spin


Is the spin some distance from the deeper convection?

No, I did notice that as well, but if you look a bit closer you can actually see a brief moment of spin embedded in the convection.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#57 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:18 pm

this could best look tropical wave of 2018
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:38 pm

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