Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)
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- gatorcane
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Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves
slowly west over the next few days. By the middle of next week,
stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves
slowly west over the next few days. By the middle of next week,
stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
And just this quick a TW flares up in the short term without model support from just a few days ago, it helps this particular TW that is closer to the 10th latitude & ITCZ away from the cooler SSTs to the north and away from the core of the SAL.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
If it gains latitude like the Euro shows it will have no chance to do much after Monday. IMO.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
No tropical wave near the highlighted area by the NHC, perhaps is the forecasted vorticity to develop out of the ITCZ and approaching TW near the C.V. Isalnds by the models.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
I see multiple spins on the trough axis. Which one can make a play?
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
Funny how the NHC removed Debby then on the next TWO indicates an area that would normally only be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion. Certainly an empty map in almost mid-August makes them worry about tweets similar to "Why do we need the NHC?"
As the others mentioned, it just appears to be an ITCZ disturbance. But looking to the north, there is a very large area of cool-weather cumulus and dust.
Actually, the disturbance to the west of the NHC area looks healthier, but that is also very low latitude.
P.S. As TWC mentioned this morning, the westerlies are very strong across the Caribbean at present.
As the others mentioned, it just appears to be an ITCZ disturbance. But looking to the north, there is a very large area of cool-weather cumulus and dust.
Actually, the disturbance to the west of the NHC area looks healthier, but that is also very low latitude.
P.S. As TWC mentioned this morning, the westerlies are very strong across the Caribbean at present.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
Frank2 wrote:Funny how the NHC removed Debby then on the next TWO indicates an area that would normally only be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion. Certainly an empty map in almost mid-August makes them worry about tweets similar to "Why do we need the NHC?"
As the others mentioned, it just appears to be an ITCZ disturbance. But looking to the north, there is a very large area of cool-weather cumulus and dust.
Actually, the disturbance to the west of the NHC area looks healthier, but that is also very low latitude.
P.S. As TWC mentioned this morning, the westerlies are very strong across the Caribbean at present.
I suspect that literally no one would tweet “why do we need the NHC” after last season. Models slightly develop it, the NHC gave it a low chance, where is the issue here?
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
Pretty good ensemble support for at least a short lived weak system.
[b]
@MJVentrice
Following Following @MJVentrice
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Possibility increasing for a short-lived MDR system in the coming week. Note the lack of shading over the western tropical Atlantic suggests that if this system does spin up, it will likely spin down fairly quickly. GEFS bulled up at 90%; ECMWF 60%; NHC 20%
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1027909382674243584
[b]
@MJVentrice
Following Following @MJVentrice
More
Possibility increasing for a short-lived MDR system in the coming week. Note the lack of shading over the western tropical Atlantic suggests that if this system does spin up, it will likely spin down fairly quickly. GEFS bulled up at 90%; ECMWF 60%; NHC 20%
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1027909382674243584
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
Am I wrong to say that I see two LLC’s?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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- galaxy401
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
Shows that even with no model support for the basin at all 5 days ago doesn't mean something will try to form.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- CyclonicFury
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
Don't think this will amount to much (though a quick spin-up is possible). However, it's a sign the active part of the season is getting close.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
I've been looking at this the last few days, and kinda liked the way it looked even when it was devoid of convection.....low level turning to my eyes. Something to look at at least.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some
gradual development is possible after that time while the system
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some
gradual development is possible after that time while the system
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- gatorcane
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20
Interesting that the latest outlook mentions conditions are favorable after a couple of days instead of becoming unfavorable.
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- AnnularCane
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