When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?

[CyclonicFury]

14 said no majors.

yep, looks like peak of "season cancel" season

Some of the official forecasts include none in their range though, wasn't one of them between 0 and 1?

NOAA did say 0-2 majors so the experts seem to think a season without a major hurricane isn't out of the question. However, it's not something that occurs often. It has occurred the following years in the satellite era: 1968, 1972, 1986, 1994 and 2013. If we still don't have a major a month from now then the talk of a season without a major will make a lot more sense, but we are still over 10 days away from the average date of the first Atlantic major hurricane's formation. I still think we see at least one major.

[tolakram]

My vote was 11-20th. Might be a little late, but I still feel like sometime in the first half of September.

[Shell Mound]

While we are likely to witness an increase in activity in early to mid September, modelled conditions do not appear to be sufficiently conducive to major hurricanes. Vertical wind shear and subsidence appear to offset other factors. Though hurricanes are a near-certain bet, there is a better-than-average chance that September ends without a major hurricane. October isn't likely to be more conducive, given oncoming El Niño. Overall, the window for a hurricane season, much less a major hurricane, is shorter and more hostile in 2018 than in most other years. I'm going out on a limb and voting for "no majors" in 2018.

[CyclonicFury]

While we are likely to witness an increase in activity in early to mid September, modelled conditions do not appear to be sufficiently conducive to major hurricanes. Vertical wind shear and subsidence appear to offset other factors. Though hurricanes are a near-certain bet, there is a better-than-average chance that September ends without a major hurricane. October isn't likely to be more conducive, given oncoming El Niño. Overall, the window for a hurricane season, much less a major hurricane, is shorter and more hostile in 2018 than in most other years. I'm going out on a limb and voting for "no majors" in 2018.

I don't think I would say "better than average" odds for September to not have a major hurricane. Not only is the Atlantic expected to see rising motion return next month, but much of the western Atlantic is warm enough to support a major hurricanes. Only one September since 1995 (2013, of course) did not have a major hurricane. While I agree that a major hurricane is unlikely for the next 7-10 days, I think we could very well see one after that.

[HurricaneRyan]

Considering that it looks like no hurricane will form in August for the first time since 2013, and only the 9th time in recorded history, I’m thinking the the odds of a major forming at all this season are slim.

I'm not sure if it's really that slim of a chance though.

So in addition to 2013, you also have 2001, 2002, 1997, 1984, 1988, 1914, and one other season.

1984 had Diana
1988 had Gilbert, Helene and Joan
1997 had Erika
2001 had Erin, Iris and Michelle
2002 had Isidore and Lili


And only 5 seasons have gone without major hurricanes. So I don't August having no hurricanes is a factor into whether there will be no majors this season

[Hurricaneman]

Considering that it looks like no hurricane will form in August for the first time since 2013, and only the 9th time in recorded history, I’m thinking the the odds of a major forming at all this season are slim.

I'm not sure if it's really that slim of a chance though.

So in addition to 2013, you also have 2001, 2002, 1997, 1984, 1988, 1914, and one other season.

1984 had Diana
1988 had Gilbert, Helene and Joan
1997 had Erika
2001 had Erin, Iris and Michelle
2002 had Isidore and Lili


And only 5 seasons have gone without major hurricanes. So I don't August having no hurricanes is a factor into whether there will be no majors this season

Heck 1914 didn’t even have a hurricane and is the only season to do so I believe

[otowntiger]

Considering that it looks like no hurricane will form in August for the first time since 2013, and only the 9th time in recorded history, I’m thinking the the odds of a major forming at all this season are slim.

I'm not sure if it's really that slim of a chance though.

So in addition to 2013, you also have 2001, 2002, 1997, 1984, 1988, 1914, and one other season.

1984 had Diana
1988 had Gilbert, Helene and Joan
1997 had Erika
2001 had Erin, Iris and Michelle
2002 had Isidore and Lili


And only 5 seasons have gone without major hurricanes. So I don't August having no hurricanes is a factor into whether there will be no majors this season

. August is normally the second busiest month of hurricane season. If no tropical storms form this month, much less, any hurricanes and and even much less any majors, the odds (and common sense) tell me that the chances of a major not forming are pretty high. I’m not saying one won’t, but the odds are reduced. In my humble opinion.

[Hammy]

Considering that it looks like no hurricane will form in August for the first time since 2013, and only the 9th time in recorded history, I’m thinking the the odds of a major forming at all this season are slim.

I'm not sure if it's really that slim of a chance though.

So in addition to 2013, you also have 2001, 2002, 1997, 1984, 1988, 1914, and one other season.

1984 had Diana
1988 had Gilbert, Helene and Joan
1997 had Erika
2001 had Erin, Iris and Michelle
2002 had Isidore and Lili


And only 5 seasons have gone without major hurricanes. So I don't August having no hurricanes is a factor into whether there will be no majors this season

. August is normally the second busiest month of hurricane season. If no tropical storms form this month, much less, any hurricanes and and even much less any majors, the odds and common sense tell me that the chances of a major not forming are pretty high. I’m not saying one won’t, but the odds are reduced.

The first major hurricane occurs, on average, around Sep 4-5. Uncommon as it is, many of the years with no August hurricanes were fairly recent, making up about one in five seasons since 1982, most of which were backloaded. I still think it's in the realm of possibility (though less likely than it seemed a week or so ago) that one doesn't occur, but August can't really be used as an indicator either.

[otowntiger]

I’m going with no majors this year. We had enough last year to last for a long time.

[TheStormExpert]

IF the GFS is correct those that said September 1st-10th may be right.

[Dean_175]

The new tropical wave originating from Africa looks promising in the GFS. Looks like it could wind up into a cat 3-- possibly a 4, but it is still too early to tell.

[Ntxw]

September 1-10 voters will likely win. Florence looks like a major out there and may get it today.

[TheStormExpert]

IF the GFS is correct those that said September 1st-10th may be right.

Looks like the GFS was right! Also the winner of the poll was September 1st-10th, though I went with September 11th-20th.

[tolakram]

I was 11th to 20th as well.

[AnnularCane]

September 1-10 voters will likely win. Florence looks like a major out there and may get it today.

I voted September 1-10. And Florence is a major. What do I win?

[CyclonicFury]

Right on cue, pretty much. The average first major forms on September 4 and we get our first on September 5. Will be interesting to see if we get any more major hurricanes this season.

[NDG]

Right on cue, pretty much. The average first major forms on September 4 and we get our first on September 5. Will be interesting to see if we get any more major hurricanes this season.

I predicted 2 majors, I wouldn't be surprised if a third one forms.

[galaxy401]

Yeah it was too premature to say there would be no majors this hurricane season. Climatology pretty much said no there.

[Hammy]

I was off by two weeks