When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?

CyclonicFury · #1 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:29 am

Going to go with mid-September. September 11-20 range.

(Can someone please make a poll with August 21-31, September 1-10, September 11-20, September 21-30, October or later, and there will be no major hurricanes this season?)

#2 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:35 am

Added poll and voted Sept 11-20

DioBrando · #3 Postby **DioBrando** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:24 am

heh

voted none LOL!

CFLHurricane · #4 Postby **CFLHurricane** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:27 am

I’m thinking September 1-10 seeing as even though the Atlantic is waking up, the rest of August will be sacrificial storms paving the way for peak season.

Hammy · #5 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:52 pm

Voted September 20-30 but I think it'll be more Sep 15-25 time frame.

FireRat · #6 Postby **FireRat** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:05 pm

went with Sept 1-10, but think the storm could form in late August and peak in early Sept.

canes92 · #7 Postby **canes92** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:19 pm

None will take place. But y'all never know.

galaxy401 · #8 Postby **galaxy401** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:05 pm

Sometime in early September. This should make the 2013 comparisons go away. :wink:

Hypercane_Kyle · #9 Postby **Hypercane_Kyle** » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:48 pm

September 15-ish, only major hurricane of the year and about the location where Lee 2017 and Michael 2012 became majors. Nontropical in origin.

Hurricaneman · #10 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:29 am

My guess was September 1-10 but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a complete strike out for major hurricanes this year

otowntiger · #11 Postby **otowntiger** » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:15 am

Considering that it looks like no hurricane will form in August for the first time since 2013, and only the 9th time in recorded history, I’m thinking the the odds of a major forming at all this season are slim.

#12 Postby **psyclone** » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:07 pm

I went mid September. I'm kind of shocked by the number "none"...while a possible solution that's probably too bearish...it's likely we'll squeeze out at least one. We just had 2 during the 2015 super nino...the most notable of which was Joaquin.

CyclonicFury · #13 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm

psyclone wrote:I went mid September. I'm kind of shocked by the number "none"...while a possible solution that's probably too bearish...it's likely we'll squeeze out at least one. We just had 2 during the 2015 super nino...the most notable of which was Joaquin.

I agree 100%, the average first major hurricane does not form until a couple weeks from now. Seasons without a major hurricane are not common and most likely we will see at least one. September looks to be much more favorable than August. Any time someone calls for no majors, that is a VERY bearish forecast.

#14 Postby **AnnularCane** » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:31 pm

Sept 1-10. Maybe.

Hurricaneman · #15 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:42 pm

I’m going to guess the first major this year will be with the current lemoned area sometime around early September

Hammy · #16 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:40 pm

None at this point, if the waves continue coming off as far north as they've been.

YouTube · #17 Postby **NotSparta** » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:19 am

14 said no majors.

yep, looks like peak of "season cancel" season

StruThiO · #18 Postby **StruThiO** » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:34 am

consistently the best way to eat a plateful of crow

Sciencerocks · #19 Postby **Sciencerocks** » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 am

never

Hammy · #20 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:25 am

NotSparta wrote:14 said no majors.

yep, looks like peak of "season cancel" season

Some of the official forecasts include none in their range though, wasn't one of them between 0 and 1?