Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro ensembles still has several members that take tropical storms south of Houston.

[Bayousaint]

0z Euro ensembles still has several members that take tropical storms south of Houston.

Is there a link or picture of this info I can look at?

[Clearcloudz]

00Z ECMWF Ensemble members

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090200-240.html

[cycloneye]

06z GFS more bullish.Has a Tropical Storm for Louisiana/Alabama.

[Dylan]

Between the 0Z EURO/UKMET/CMC and the 6Z GFS, you have fairly good consensus of a 35-45kt tropical storm into Louisiana on Wednesday morning.

[Blinhart]

What are the odds of this becoming a Hurricane with the high Sea Temps and not much disruption in the atmosphere and currents from other systems. Any chance of RI like Harvey last year?

[tropicwatch]

The wind shear has relaxed considerably this morning and there might be a start to some banding features.

[OuterBanker]

00Z ECMWF Ensemble members

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090200-240.html

Actually fairly tightly clustered. Looks like ts strength and a La strike. Looks like it will be a flooding concern. Of interest is the North turn after landfall in the GFS instead of along coast to Tx. Of concern though is Florence for the east coast. The forecast fish looks more like a threat in the 00z Euro.

[Airboy]

First visuals will be intresting, looks to be a bit more convection building right now.

[Nimbus]

Hard to tell from infrared but seems to still be a LLC near 22.2 -75.4 which should be partially exposed in a couple hours.

[tropicwatch]

With time getting short, the NHC might have to go straight to PTC.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=50%/80%

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[NDG]

Now that makes sense now, I guess they've been waiting for the GFS to get more on board.

[NDG]

For those that have been asking here is the latest Euro's ensembles, which in the range of 80-90% of them show development.

[tolakram]

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6914&y=6253&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

COD: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Frank P]

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6914&y=6253&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

COD: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Excellent convection building this morning... notice that the tops of the storms near the center of rotation does not appear to be affected all that much by shear...

[drezee]

I want to be clear. I have read comments about not having a high ceiling. Although not an ideal setup for RI, the pattern is loaded. You only need 24 hrs of a RI setup. Models (even the Euro) can miss it even 36 hours out. The players are on the field. Outflow jets if properly aligned, relaxing shear, moist column, tons of CAPE, and 30C+ SSTs. This should not be over hyped. It should also not he downplayed. Facts are above...so be prepared and hope for the best.

[drezee]

No kidding, I would love a resources permitting recon for 6z tonight. Enough though LL invests are typically during the day.

[GCANE]

Going to be dicey once it gets in the east GOM.
Heavy shear will be on the west side of the CoC from ULL over Houston area.
Thing to watch is if this could fire off some heavy-duty hot towers to push out the shear.

[tolakram]

This thread is locked as Invest 91L is now up.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119828