Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Clearcloudz]

00Z ECMWF Accumulated Total precipitation map to Hour 156

Big difference is much less totals as everyone is mentioning.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090200/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-1200z.html

[SoupBone]

I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.

[stormlover2013]

[Tweet][/Tweet]

I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.

Euro has it going west against and stalling in Texas not caving towards gfs

[Cpv17]

I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.

I had a feeling the Euro would cave to the GFS tonight. Euro overdid the ridging it’s prior two runs and flooded Texas.

[Brent]

192 moving into Arkansas

Definitely a much better run

[SoupBone]

[Tweet][/Tweet]

I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.

Euro has it going west against and stalling in Texas not caving towards gfs

Ok maybe caving is too strong, but it's definitely moved toward the GFS's solution rather than the other way around. It's not showing devastating rainfall either like in previous runs.

[stormlover2013]

I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.

I had a feeling the Euro would cave to the GFS tonight. Euro overdid the ridging it’s prior two runs and flooded Texas.

It didn’t cave to gfs lol it shows the system in Texas for almost 3 days

[Cpv17]

Well guys, that was exciting while it lasted

[mcheer23]

We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.

[Clearcloudz]

We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.

00Z ECMWF ensembles could paint a different picture.

[stormlover2013]

We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.

00Z ECMWF ensembles could paint a different picture.

What U mean forex?

[Aric Dunn]

Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.

[SoupBone]

We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.

No doubt it can change, but I'll take this run as a step in a more positive direction, for now. That high and how deep it digs is going to close the final chapter of this story.

[Clearcloudz]

We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.

00Z ECMWF ensembles could paint a different picture.

What U mean forex?

Have to wait and see what the other members think, can't just go off of one operational run.

[SoupBone]

Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.

I corrected my language (though I said caving, not caved) but you can't say that run wasn't more positive.

[Hammy]

I'm thinking the last run may have simply been a fluke, an over-correction (on both systems) so to speak, bringing Florence too far east and going too strong/west with this one.

[stormlover2013]

Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.

I corrected my language (though I said caving, not caved) but you can't say that run wasn't more positive.

Euro has been doing what it’s be doing keeps it in Texas for 3 days, not as strong but still pushing it west.

[SoupBone]

Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.

I corrected my language (though I said caving, not caved) but you can't say that run wasn't more positive.

Euro has been doing what it’s be doing keeps it in Texas for 3 days, not as strong but still pushing it west.

That's not the whole picture though. The rainfall potential totals tanked (and that's an appropriate word choice). From 29" to 2.5"-5" in the Greater Houston Area. I don't care if it sits over Texas for 20 days if it only drops manageable amounts of rain.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting...while the 0z operational Canadian model shifted north, the 0z Canadian ensembles shifted west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018090200&fh=120

0z Euro ensemble is running now.

[SoupBone]

Interesting...while the 0z operational Canadian model shifted north, the 0z Canadian ensembles shifted west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018090200&fh=120

0z Euro ensemble is running now.

Trying to stay awake for it...zzzzzzzz.