How many named storms will form in September?

[cycloneye]

Come and vote on this poll that closes on August 31rst at 11:28 AM EDT. There are plenty of options to vote for including the extremes 10 or more and none will form.

I voted for Five.

[CyclonicFury]

Voted four.

[Hurricaneman]

I said 10 and think a large burst after next week is possible

[Hammy]

Four, with only one of those before Sep 10.

[Shell Mound]

While I am quite bearish on the prospects for a major hurricane to develop, I do anticipate a distinct uptick in overall TC activity in September. Despite unfavourable conditions, a few weak and/or short-lived tropical storms in the MDR appear to be a good bet, primarily within the first two weeks of the month. The remainder of activity is likely to be concentrated over the subtropics, where vertical wind shear is lower and instability higher. One or more of those high-latitude systems is likely to become a hurricane, though probably not a major. I don't foresee any hurricanes in the MDR, Caribbean, or Gulf in September, but a couple may form over the subtropical Atlantic and curve out to sea. Therefore, I am going for four tropical cyclones in September: two tropical storms in the (eastern) MDR, most likely close to West Africa, and two hurricanes over the open subtropical Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

A reminder for those who have not voted to come and vote on this question. Poll closes on Friday at 11:28 AM EDT.

[NDG]

With warm ENSO being central based and still not up to El Nino I am thinking around 8 storms will form in September, which at least 2 will become major hurricanes.
Also, the CFv2 has been trending to basically no shear problems across the basing during September.

[Kazmit]

I'm going to go with five. With warm, untouched ssts all around the basin, and the movement of the MJO, I think an outbreak is imminent.

[CaliforniaResident]

I'm going to go with 4: 2 TS and 2 hurricanes, one being a major.

[OuterBanker]

LOL, I suspect that the 5's all showed up after the most recent Euro model were released.

[TheStormExpert]

Five, three of them hurricanes, and one of those three hurricanes being a major (likely the 10/50% area).

[cycloneye]

All voting has ended as poll has closed and option FIVE won. Interesting that 06L may be upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence at 11 PM EDT.

[Blinhart]

I wish I would of seen this earlier, I would of voted either 8/9. I say 5/6 Hurricanes and 2/3 Majors.

[galaxy401]

Going to be an interesting contest. Three days in and we already have 2 named storms.

[NDG]

Only September 4th and already two named storms, with a 3rd one just a day or two away, my forecast of 8 named storms looks like it could reached.

[chaser1]

I wish I would of seen this earlier, I would of voted either 8/9. I say 5/6 Hurricanes and 2/3 Majors.

Yeah, I missed this too..... but 8 or 9?? Whoa LOL! I think I might've gone 5/4/1. Either way, here comes our concentrated season. I'd guess we'll continue to see activity at least till mid October

[chaser1]

Only September 4th and already two named storms, with a 3rd one just a day or two away, my forecast of 8 named storms looks like it could reached.

From that perspective, "8" does seem a bit more obtainable

[cycloneye]

Already two have formed in September and if the models are right between two and three more will form in the next two weeks (92L,the one inside Africa and in BOC)

[TheStormExpert]

According to the 00z GFS we should have Helene, Isaac, and Joyce along with Florence all active at once by this time next week. That adds the total of September storm formations to 5 by September 13th.

[cycloneye]

With Kirk we have 6 named storms forming in September and #7 will be up very soon with 90L / Leslie and maybe #8 from 98L.Let's see when the month ends what is the final number.