Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

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NDG
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Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#1 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:06 am

Interesting little low level vorticity this morning north of Hispaniola, east of the northern Bahamas near 26N & 68W No model support for development, in a high pressure environment but still has my attention on it over the next couple of days.

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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#2 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:10 am

One model support for development, from the Model thread.

BobHarlem wrote:The German Icon model has something forming east of the Bahamas in two days.

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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#3 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:13 am

Only one mention of it on twitter I could find:


Flhurricane

Nothing on the Atlantic TWO, but theres a few areas to watch. E. Bahamas, E. Lesser Antilles, and in the MDR out in the East Alantic as we approach the peak of the season.

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1034095298220646401


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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#4 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:27 am

:uarrow: It definitely is worth monitoring. We have been very fortunate with no activity occuring in the MDR to this juncture this season. So, it looks like we just will have to maybe look closely within for homegrown systems to potentially develop as we get into September. We shall see.
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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#5 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:50 am

Yeah there's an upper level low on the western side of Cuba that seems to be pulling this (and the weaker area west of it) to the west and the Gulf.
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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#6 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:00 am

of two area i see nhc catching on one off Africa not this one this could in upper level low
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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#7 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:01 am

There's strong 500mb ridging over the western atlantic and SE US that will guide this system into FL and eventually the GOM. Local NWS discussions just indicate increased convection for the peninsula due to an inverted trough this weekend. Definitely something to watch this time of year.
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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#8 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:13 am

Definitely worth watching, seems like a upper high might be building over it and warmer waters ahead. It has my attention.
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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#9 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:20 am

FWIW, which isn't much .... 12z CMC does nothing with it. POOF over FL
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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#10 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:43 pm

Yep thats the one I mentioned :P shows up as a nice little pouch on the TPW.

small chance we could see something try.
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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#11 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:06 am

This area still has no model support (Too small?), but it has persisted mightily over the last two days.

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Re: Vorticity center north of Hispaniola

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:06 am

Seems like the models show some trough or weak development between the Carolinas and Bermuda with this feature as it meanders for many days with weak steering currents so this needs to be watched carefully
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